FantasyPros auction values 2026 give you consensus prices but ignore live betting lines that dictate game script — how the game flow dictates who gets the ball. Our model adjusts every player's auction dollar using Week 1 spreads — Chiefs -5.5, Ravens -3.5, Giants +3 — so you pay for the script, not just the name.
What Are FantasyPros Auction Values 2026?
FantasyPros auction values 2026 are the consensus dollar prices experts assign each player, averaged across the industry. They do not price game-script risk from live spreads.
Why Do FantasyPros Auction Values Miss Game Script?
FantasyPros aggregates expert rankings into a single dollar value per player. The experts watch tape, read beat reports, and project usage. They do not, as a rule, convert the closing spread — the final betting line before kickoff — into a projected snap share for the third-down back. That conversion is mechanical. Home favorites of -5.5 run the ball 62% of the time in the second half over the last five seasons. A +3 road underdog throws 68% of the time when down two touchdowns. The consensus bakes in neither.
What Do Week 1 Betting Lines Tell Us About Auction Prices?
The market has spoken on the opening slate. Kansas City is a 5.5-point road favorite at Tampa Bay — the largest spread of the week. Baltimore is -3.5 at Minnesota . Seattle is -4.5 at Tennessee . Atlanta is -3.5 at Indianapolis . These are not predictions; they are the prices sharps — pro bettors who move lines — and public money agreed on. Our model reads them and moves the auction dollars accordingly.
Which Players Get the Biggest Positive Adjustments?
Bucky Irving, RB, TB. The Chiefs are 5.5-point road favorites at Tampa Bay . Irving led Tampa Bay in rush attempts over the final three preseason games. A spread this large on the road projects a second-half run rate — how often a team runs vs passes — above 65%. Consensus values him lower; our model says pay more.
Derrick Henry, RB, BAL. The Ravens are -3.5 at Minnesota . Henry's career usage in positive scripts — game flow that helps a player's stats — is a known quantity. The model adds value for the implied goal-line volume — carries inside the 5-yard line — in a controlled game.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA. Seattle is -4.5 at Tennessee . Walker's preseason snap share on early downs was 78%. The line reinforces a workload the consensus already likes but underprices.
Which Players Get the Biggest Negative Adjustments?
Malik Nabers, WR, NYG. The Giants are +3 at Miami . A road underdog facing a Dolphins pass rush that ranked top-five in pressure rate last year projects to a negative script. Nabers still sees targets, but they come in garbage time against soft zones — loose coverage prevent defenses play when ahead. Consensus values him higher; our model says pay less.
Drake London, WR, ATL. The Falcons are -3.5 at Indianapolis . Atlanta's implied script — what the betting line says the game will look like — is run-heavy with Kirk Cousins managing the game. London's target share drops 12% in positive-script games over his career. Consensus values him higher; our model says pay less.
DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI. The Eagles are 1.5-point road favorites at New England . A tight spread on the road means Philadelphia cannot rely on a blowout script. Smith's ceiling is capped by a game that projects close throughout. Consensus values him higher; our model says pay less.
How Do I Use Model-Adjusted Values at My Draft?
Open the model-adjusted auction sheet and keep the consensus sheet next to it. When a player's model value exceeds consensus by $3 or more, consider this a potential buy opportunity — the market is giving you a discount on script equity — extra value from favorable game flow. When consensus exceeds model by $3 or more, consider this a potential fade — the market is charging for a name in a bad script. The ADP vs value tiers piece explains how to layer this into a full draft plan.
For snake drafters, the rankings tool converts the same deltas into round-equivalent shifts. A +$4 model edge equals roughly one round of ADP value in 12-team leagues. Check the live odds board and Week 1 rankings Saturday night for the final numbers.
What Line Movement Would Flip the Model?
If the Chiefs line moves from -5.5 to -2.5 before kickoff , Irving's model value drops and the buy signal disappears. If the Giants flip from +3 to -1.5 , Nabers jumps back to consensus and the fade vanishes. The model is only as good as the line it reads. Check the live odds board Saturday night for the final numbers.
Model-adjusted values are decision support, not a guarantee. Re-check the live board and your league scoring before you bid.
DFS projected ROI vs ownership %
Projected GPP ROI multiplier vs projected ownership across simulated lineups. Sub-10% leverage plays compound when they hit; chalk plays cap your upside even when the projection is dead-on.
Prop OVER hit rate vs line distance from median
Empirical hit rate of OVER bets as the prop line moves away from the player projection median, measured in standard deviations. A line set 1sd below the median hits ~84% of the time — but books price the juice to match.
