Benchmarks
How models compare on backtest accuracy.
Published models use the same scoring contract: Brier score, hit rate, calibration, against-the-spread rate, and drawdown. These rows are pulled from the live model registry and graded prediction results.
Registry-backed leaderboard
Last generated: Pending
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Metric glossary
- Brier score
- Mean squared error of probabilistic forecasts. Lower is better.
- Log-loss
- Penalizes overconfident wrong answers harder than Brier. Used for binary classifiers.
- Hit rate
- Win percentage excluding pushes. Breakeven against -110 juice is about 52.4%.
- ATS
- Against-the-spread win rate for scored spread picks.
- CLV
- Closing-line value: average edge captured against the final market price.
- Max drawdown
- Worst peak-to-trough loss in units across the scored run.
What gets audited next
- Replayable runs: every benchmark row links back to immutable model versions and scored prediction windows.
- Leakage checks: validation kits runs that train on the same rows they claim to evaluate.
- Verified badges: signed benchmark runs can be surfaced on model cards and leaderboard rows.