A large net line move between open and close — spread points, total points, or moneyline implied-probability shift — reflects sharp money and predicts value on the side the price moved toward.
The tell: Spread moved >=1.5pt, total moved >=2.5pt, or moneyline implied win probability moved >=3pt.
7-9 ATS (43.8%) · all games · n=16
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ARI @ SF · spread · away
ATL @ GB · spread · away
ATL @ GB · total · under
CIN @ PIT · spread · away
CIN @ PIT · total · under
KC @ MIA · spread · away
LAC @ BUF · spread · home
LV @ NO · total · over
MIN @ TB · spread · away
NE @ JAX · spread · home
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
NYJ @ DET · total · over
PHI @ CHI · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · total · under
SEA @ WAS · spread · away
SEA @ WAS · total · under
TEN @ NYG · spread · home
TEN @ NYG · total · under
market-price
Line Value
A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.
The tell: The closing spread is within half a point of (but not exactly on) 3, 7, 10, 14, or 17.
390-358 ATS (52.1%) · all games · n=748
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ATL @ GB · spread · away
BAL @ DAL · spread · home
CAR @ CLE · spread · home
CIN @ PIT · spread · home
HOU @ IND · spread · home
KC @ MIA · spread · home
LA @ DEN · spread · home
LAC @ BUF · spread · away
LV @ NO · spread · away
MIN @ TB · spread · home
NE @ JAX · spread · away
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · spread · home
SEA @ WAS · spread · home
TEN @ NYG · spread · away
historical-context
Ats Streak Regression
A team on an extended ATS streak (either direction) is due for mean reversion; the streak itself carries no forward-looking edge once it reaches a genuine length.
The tell: Fires against the more extreme of atsStreakHome/atsStreakAway once |streak| >= 3 games: fades a covering streak, rides a fading streak's regression.
419-397 ATS (51.4%) · all games · n=816
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ARI @ SF · spread · away
ATL @ GB · spread · home
BAL @ DAL · spread · home
CAR @ CLE · spread · away
HOU @ IND · spread · away
KC @ MIA · spread · home
LA @ DEN · spread · away
LAC @ BUF · spread · away
LV @ NO · spread · away
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · spread · away
SEA @ WAS · spread · home
TEN @ NYG · spread · away
model-evidence
Model Market Gap
the model panel's mean win probability and the closing moneyline price usually agree closely; a persistent gap of >=8 points between them is informative about which one has not fully absorbed the game's real information
The tell: Model panel P(home wins) diverges >=8pt from the moneyline-implied P(home wins), panel >= 5 models.
8-20 ATS (28.6%) · all games · n=28
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ARI @ SF · moneyline · away
ATL @ GB · moneyline · away
CAR @ CLE · moneyline · home
CIN @ PIT · moneyline · home
HOU @ IND · moneyline · home
KC @ MIA · moneyline · home
LAC @ BUF · moneyline · away
NE @ JAX · moneyline · away
NYJ @ DET · moneyline · away
PHI @ CHI · moneyline · home
SEA @ WAS · moneyline · home
TEN @ NYG · moneyline · away
market-price
Total Key Number
A total that crosses an NFL key total number (37/41/44/47/51) between open and close reprices a meaningfully different fraction of NFL game totals than one that never crosses.
The tell: The closing total has crossed 37, 41, 44, 47, or 51 since the open.
2-11 ATS (15.4%) · all games · n=13
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ARI @ SF · total · over
ATL @ GB · total · under
CAR @ CLE · total · over
CIN @ PIT · total · under
HOU @ IND · total · under
LV @ NO · total · over
MIN @ TB · total · under
NYJ @ DET · total · over
PHI @ CHI · total · under
SEA @ WAS · total · under
TEN @ NYG · total · under
market-price
Key Number Cross
A spread that crosses a key number (3 or 7) between open and close reprices a meaningfully different fraction of NFL margins than a spread that never crosses one.
The tell: The closing spread has crossed the 3- or 7-point key number since the open.
6-5 ATS (54.5%) · all games · n=11
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ATL @ GB · spread · away
BAL @ DAL · spread · away
CAR @ CLE · spread · away
CIN @ PIT · spread · away
HOU @ IND · spread · away
LA @ DEN · spread · home
LAC @ BUF · spread · home
NE @ JAX · spread · home
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · spread · away
SEA @ WAS · spread · home
market-price
Reverse Line Move
When the ticket majority leans one way but the closing line moves the other way, the money behind the move (not the ticket count) is the better read on which side is live.
The tell: Public tickets lean >=10pt one way while the spread closes >=1pt toward the other side.
4-2 ATS (60.0%) · all games · n=6
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ARI @ SF · spread · away
ATL @ GB · spread · away
NE @ JAX · spread · home
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
model-evidence
Ensemble Disagreement
A deep, tightly clustered model panel makes its consensus direction more credible.
The tell: At least 5 models, disagreement at most 0.10, and probability at least 5 points from 50%.
0-3 ATS (0.0%) · all games · n=3
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ATL @ GB · spread · away
BAL @ DAL · spread · away
LV @ NO · spread · home
TEN @ NYG · spread · away
narrative
Prime Time Under
Primetime broadcasts skew toward conservative game plans and public over-money inflates the total, so the under carries a live edge.
The tell: Fires the under whenever the schedule marks this game primetime (Thu/Mon, or Sun >= 18:00 local).
238-187 ATS (56.0%) · all games · n=425
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ATL @ GB · total · under
LA @ DEN · total · under
PHI @ CHI · total · under
situational
Primetime Dog
Primetime attention can overprice favorites, leaving value on the underdog.
The tell: Primetime spread has a non-pick'em underdog.
225-200 ATS (53.0%) · all games · n=425
· as of Sep 23, 2026
Beat the closing line: not captured yet
Drift not measured
By window
No graded window split yet.
Fires this week on
ATL @ GB · spread · away
LA @ DEN · spread · home
PHI @ CHI · spread · home
situational
Short Week Both Sides Total
a short turnaround degrades practice time and execution regardless of which team has the smaller relative edge; when both sides are equally short-rested there is no differential to exploit but there is a real absolute effect on combined scoring
The tell: Both restDaysHome and restDaysAway <= 5 — an absolute fatigue effect, not a rest-differential edge.
62-59 ATS (51.2%) · all games · n=121
· as of Sep 23, 2026
