Pundit Accuracy Leaderboard
Explicit calls, graded against what happened. A row only ranks once it carries at least 20 graded calls — below that a hit rate is a coin flip, so thin samples sit in their own list and never sort into the board.
| Source | Type | Sport | Graded calls | Hit rate | 95% CI | Edge vs coin flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bill Simmons Podcast | Individual | nba | 56 | 62.3% | 60–83% | +12.3% |
| Thinking Basketball | Individual | nba | 27 | 58.4% | 55–87% | +8.4% |
| Portland Trail Blazers (Official) | Team official | nba | 20 | 55.7% | 48–85% | +5.7% |
| CBS Sports NFL | Aggregator | nfl | 25 | 40.0% | 15–65% | -10.0% |
Hit rates are shrunk toward the 50% baseline by sample size, so a hot streak on few calls
cannot outrank a real record. Where these numbers come from: source_accuracy_scores, recomputed nightly.
Below the floor — tracked, not ranked
Fewer than 20 graded calls. Listed so coverage is honest; deliberately unsorted by hit rate.
- JxmyHighroller nba 13 graded calls — too few to rate
- Pro Football Focus nfl 12 graded calls — too few to rate
- ESPN NFL News nfl 9 graded calls — too few to rate
- Pro Football Rumors nfl 9 graded calls — too few to rate
- PFT PM (Florio) nfl 6 graded calls — too few to rate
- Windy City Gridiron (CHI) nfl 6 graded calls — too few to rate
- Yahoo Sports NFL nfl 3 graded calls — too few to rate
- Ben Solak (The Football Show) nfl 2 graded calls — too few to rate
- SB Nation NFL nfl 2 graded calls — too few to rate
- Arrowhead Pride (KC) nfl 2 graded calls — too few to rate
- Big Blue View (NYG) nfl 2 graded calls — too few to rate
- Bucs Nation (TB) nfl 2 graded calls — too few to rate
- Cat Scratch Reader (CAR) nfl 2 graded calls — too few to rate
- Up & Adams (Kay Adams) nfl 1 graded call — too few to rate
- The Fantasy Footballers nfl 1 graded call — too few to rate
- Fantasy Life (Matthew Berry) nfl 1 graded call — too few to rate
- CBS Sports NFL nba 1 graded call — too few to rate
- Niners Nation (SF) nfl 1 graded call — too few to rate