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CURRENT
▲-10 → -9.5 (+0.5) over 24 captures TB @ DAL DAL -10 → -9.5 · DraftKings — open TB @ DAL matchup■ house House record, last 10: 8–2 · NFL ATS, last 90 days: 66.7% (n=30) · Early sample · 30 of 50 plays · 22h ago — open the house record
Access: Anonymous access. Content follows.

Insights

Receipts first. Every number traces to a graded row.

The same receipts query feeds Picks, Insights and the Sunday digest — it can never disagree with itself.

What's working this month

Lenses beating the other lenses' hit rate, with n≥50 graded signals each, by market condition. The same numbers feed the blog’s edge-of-week.

Public Fade overall
Lift vs other lenses
+18.4%
95% CI
+4.4% to +29.6%
n
52
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Steam Move overall
Lift vs other lenses
+8.1%
95% CI
−5.9% to +20.8%
n
52
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Divisional Primetime Combo overall
Lift vs other lenses
+6.2%
95% CI
−2.1% to +14.0%
n
150
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Contrarian overall
Lift vs other lenses
+5.2%
95% CI
−8.0% to +17.6%
n
60
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Home Dog Primetime overall
Lift vs other lenses
+4.7%
95% CI
−3.1% to +12.2%
n
170
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Wind Under overall
Lift vs other lenses
+3.9%
95% CI
−4.5% to +12.0%
n
144
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Prime Time Under overall
Lift vs other lenses
+3.8%
95% CI
−2.1% to +9.6%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Modeler overall
Lift vs other lenses
+3.4%
95% CI
−9.7% to +15.9%
n
60
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Line Value overall
Lift vs other lenses
+2.6%
95% CI
−3.4% to +8.4%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Divisional Dog overall
Lift vs other lenses
+2.0%
95% CI
−3.9% to +7.8%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Rest Edge overall
Lift vs other lenses
+1.3%
95% CI
−4.7% to +7.2%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Primetime Dog overall
Lift vs other lenses
+0.9%
95% CI
−5.0% to +6.8%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET

Not working this month

Lenses trailing the other lenses' hit rate, with n≥50 graded signals each.

ML Divisional Dog overall
Lift vs other lenses
−11.4%
95% CI
−17.0% to −5.5%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Sharp overall
Lift vs other lenses
−7.7%
95% CI
−20.0% to +5.5%
n
60
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Cold Weather Late Season Total overall
Lift vs other lenses
−3.7%
95% CI
−14.1% to +7.0%
n
86
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
QB Out overall
Lift vs other lenses
−3.2%
95% CI
−12.6% to +6.4%
n
109
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
ATS Streak Regression overall
Lift vs other lenses
−2.4%
95% CI
−8.3% to +3.5%
n
300
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET
Short Week Both Sides Total overall
Lift vs other lenses
−1.2%
95% CI
−10.1% to +7.6%
n
124
as-of
Oct 5, 8:41 PM ET

Receipts · NFL

graded plays (all markets)

Ready

4258

as of Sep 29

ATS (spread)

Ready

66.7%

20-10-2 · NFL ATS, last 90 days · n=30 decided · cover baseline 50.0%

as of Sep 29

live · 90-day grading-batch window · n=30

avg CLV

—

reason codes: no pick price, pending · CLV accrues from August 31, 2026. CLV measured on 5,858 of 104,770 graded picks; the rest carry no pick-time price and are excluded rather than counted as zero.

as of Sep 29

beat close

Ready

39%

as of Sep 29

20-10

66.7%

NFL ATS, last 90 days

n=30

live · 90-day grading-batch window · n=30
Open share card Post
<iframe src="https://sharksnip.com/insights/receipts/share?sport=nfl&h=1eae772dfcff7bda" width="100%" height="260" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden" title="House receipts share card — Shark Snip" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Cleared the cover baseline. A spread play must win above 50.0% to beat the coin flip. This record wins 66.7% ATS across 30 decided spread plays.

n=4258 graded plays · last graded game Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

Build from these receipts →

Cumulative house ATS record

20-10 · 66.7% · NFL ATS, last 90 days · n=30

The line plots the newest 18 decided picks.

live · 90-day grading-batch window · n=30

small n · n=30

Where the house loses · Residual angle

Every graded spread play split into disjoint side x line-size slices; up to three furthest below the house baseline, with no winning slice substituted.

Graded NFL spread picks, made before kickoff · baseline 48.7% ATS on n=2,974 decided · as of Oct 5

Small n, not ranked (under 100 decided): Road favourites · under 3 n=50 · Home favourites · 7+ n=31 · Road favourites · 7+ n=4

Market movement · biggest movers

Real consensus line history for the upcoming slate, ranked by whichever game moved most on the spread (falling back to the total, then the moneyline, when a game has no spread history yet).

  • PHI @ JAX

    Home spread

    -4.2 → -7 (-2.8) · Toward JAX

  • BAL @ ATL

    Home spread

    3.9 → 2.5 (-1.4) · Toward ATL

  • DET @ ARI

    Home spread

    5.5 → 4.5 (-1) · Toward ARI

  • TB @ DAL

    Home spread

    -9.7 → -8.8 (+0.9) · Toward TB

  • HOU @ TEN

    Home spread

    6.5 → 7 (+0.5) · Toward HOU

  • CHI @ GB

    Home spread

    2.5 → 3 (+0.5) · Toward CHI

6 of 50 upcoming games shown, ranked by |move|· latest capture Oct 5, 10:07 PM ET

What you’ll see

Access and data readiness

What this page can show you about access, sample size, grading freshness and receipt consistency.

Access state

Anon

Signed out

Receipts + Leaderboard public (that's the marketing); Explore links to Data + saved views · this viewer: signed out

Access state

Trial · paid

Signed out

Explore link-out + saved views + share cards; Me · not this viewer: signed out — the tier is not in this page's payload, so no tier is claimed

Query state

Cold query

4,258 graded plays

receipts query · all-time window · n=4,258 · as of Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

Sample health

Small n

2 / 4 rows under threshold

Insight widgets · current bake · n=4 widget rows · cells under 50 plays grey with the n; never hidden— lens-hit n=0, calibration-curve n=0

Grading window

Week not graded

50 upcoming games

loadGames · 50-game upcoming window · n=50 considered· last graded Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

Integrity

Disagreement guard

Agrees

receipts aggregate vs per-market sum · all-time window · n=4,258 · checked this render · last graded Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

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The graded field

Insights · real claim grader

The graded field: the market, mined

Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.

public.pundit_claim_grades public.pundit_claims · transcript-backed public.pundits.kind=real correct + wrong denominator

22 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window · small n is labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.

Claims graded as of Oct 5, 3:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Oct 5, 3:15 AM ET

Pundit claim grading

newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger

ClaimSourceVerdict
“I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I'm gonna pick the Raiders.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“Speaker picks the Bengals to win over the Patriots.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“The Patriots really don't got a lot going for them it seems.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“I think the Eagles have together more, they worked together as a team better.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“I think that they are more cohesive and two, just more talented than the Jaguars.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct

Pundit ledger

Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.

pundit_claim_grades pundit_claims · transcript evidence pundits.kind=real
SourceW-LHit %nWindowVerdict
Ben Solak (The Football Show) 13-959.1%22all-timehot

22 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window

Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.

Gasbag quadrant

More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.

pundit_claim_grades correct + wrong only all-time
Pundit sample size versus hit rateZero-based scatter of provenance-clean decided claims. The vertical gate is n=20 and the horizontal gate is a 45 percent hit rate.n=20 gate45% hitprovenBen Solak (The Football Show): 13-9, 59.1%, n=22Ben Solak (The Football Show)0400%100%graded claims (x-axis starts at 0)hit rate

Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.