AI model predictions. For entertainment and educational use. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial or gambling advice.
Sharp Action Backtest
For every game where books showed strong sharp consensus (avg_sharp_lean ≥ 15), did the sharp side actually win? Bucketed by lean strength. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Greater than that = +EV.
1509 sharp bets graded
Confidence GREEN edge ≥ +5pts AND n ≥ 30 AMBER +2pts ≤ edge < +5pts RED edge < 0 (fade the sharp side)
⚾ MLB
| Market | Bucket | N | W–L–P | Cover Rate | Edge vs −110 | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | All ≥15 | 103 | 44–59 | 42.7% | -9.7pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 36 | 16–20 | 44.4% | -7.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 48 | 23–25 | 47.9% | -4.5pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 18 | 4–14 | 22.2% | -30.2pts | RED |
| ↳ | 45+ | 1 | 1–0 | 100.0% | +47.6pts | AMBER |
| Spread | All ≥15 | 98 | 44–54 | 44.9% | -7.5pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 43 | 20–23 | 46.5% | -5.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 27 | 13–14 | 48.1% | -4.2pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 18 | 7–11 | 38.9% | -13.5pts | RED |
| ↳ | 45+ | 10 | 4–6 | 40.0% | -12.4pts | RED |
| Total | All ≥15 | 47 | 19–28 | 40.4% | -11.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 29 | 10–19 | 34.5% | -17.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 11 | 5–6 | 45.5% | -6.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 7 | 4–3 | 57.1% | +4.8pts | AMBER |
🏀 NBA
| Market | Bucket | N | W–L–P | Cover Rate | Edge vs −110 | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | All ≥15 | 277 | 90–187 | 32.5% | -19.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 95 | 35–60 | 36.8% | -15.5pts | RED |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 102 | 34–68 | 33.3% | -19.1pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 68 | 18–50 | 26.5% | -25.9pts | RED |
| ↳ | 45+ | 12 | 3–9 | 25.0% | -27.4pts | RED |
| Spread | All ≥15 | 41 | 23–18 | 56.1% | +3.7pts | AMBER |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 35 | 19–16 | 54.3% | +1.9pts | GRAY |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 6 | 4–2 | 66.7% | +14.3pts | AMBER |
| Total | All ≥15 | 2 | 2–0 | 100.0% | +47.6pts | AMBER |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 2 | 2–0 | 100.0% | +47.6pts | AMBER |
🏒 NHL
| Market | Bucket | N | W–L–P | Cover Rate | Edge vs −110 | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | All ≥15 | 440 | 194–246 | 44.1% | -8.3pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 126 | 64–62 | 50.8% | -1.6pts | RED |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 157 | 67–90 | 42.7% | -9.7pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 108 | 46–62 | 42.6% | -9.8pts | RED |
| ↳ | 45+ | 49 | 17–32 | 34.7% | -17.7pts | RED |
| Spread | All ≥15 | 460 | 156–304 | 33.9% | -18.5pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 156 | 51–105 | 32.7% | -19.7pts | RED |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 205 | 68–137 | 33.2% | -19.2pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 86 | 35–51 | 40.7% | -11.7pts | RED |
| ↳ | 45+ | 13 | 2–11 | 15.4% | -37.0pts | RED |
| Total | All ≥15 | 41 | 18–23 | 43.9% | -8.5pts | RED |
| ↳ | 15–19 | 20 | 11–9 | 55.0% | +2.6pts | AMBER |
| ↳ | 20–29 | 15 | 6–9 | 40.0% | -12.4pts | RED |
| ↳ | 30–44 | 6 | 1–5 | 16.7% | -35.7pts | RED |