Closing-line value river
Game-date CLV flowing above and below the zero line.
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Model predictions Book feed as of Mon, Oct 5, 10:57 PM EDT
Closing Line Value
Closing-line value measures whether our model beat the closing market. Scope: picks published in the last 30 days.
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Avg closing-line value
+0.08
points per pick
% beating close
Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=96634.9%
across 966 picks
Leader
[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)
by cumulative closing-line value
Models tracked
47
with at least one graded pick
Sport:
live pregame n=309 kickoff time · 309 graded picks with a captured close
Recent pick attribution
Capture stays explicitly untracked until a separate decision-time price exists; drift uses the recorded closing-line value basis points.
[Auto] NFL Spread (MARS) Batch 10/5/2026
[Auto] NFL Spread (MARS) closing-line value attribution
Capture · drift · closeCapture Not tracked
Capture slippage needs a decision-time price snapshot separate from the recorded pick price — not currently captured.
Drift -295.51 bps
All currently measured movement.
Close price -4.5
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost) Batch 10/5/2026
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost) closing-line value attribution
Capture · drift · closeCapture Not tracked
Capture slippage needs a decision-time price snapshot separate from the recorded pick price — not currently captured.
Drift +295.51 bps
All currently measured movement.
Close price -4.5
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB) Batch 10/5/2026
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB) closing-line value attribution
Capture · drift · closeCapture Not tracked
Capture slippage needs a decision-time price snapshot separate from the recorded pick price — not currently captured.
Drift -564.54 bps
All currently measured movement.
Close price +52
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) Batch 10/5/2026
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) closing-line value attribution
Capture · drift · closeCapture Not tracked
Capture slippage needs a decision-time price snapshot separate from the recorded pick price — not currently captured.
Drift +295.51 bps
All currently measured movement.
Close price -4.5
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN) Batch 10/5/2026
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN) closing-line value attribution
Capture · drift · closeCapture Not tracked
Capture slippage needs a decision-time price snapshot separate from the recorded pick price — not currently captured.
Drift +52.88 bps
All currently measured movement.
Close price -210
| Model | Sports | Batch order | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Auto] NFL Spread (SVR) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +10 | Closing line +0.5 | 40.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL GNN Matchup | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +7.0 | Closing line +0.3 | 47.6% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread Stacking | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +6.0 | Closing line +0.3 | 45.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +5.5 | Closing line +0.3 | 38.1% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +5.0 | Closing line +0.3 | 30.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (XGB) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +4.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 35.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Feature Store Spread Model (XGB) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +4.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 35.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (Gaussian Process) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +4.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 35.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +4.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 33.3% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL MLP Spread | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +4.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 35.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Multi-Task Spread | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +4.0 | Closing line +0.2 | 38.1% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (AdaBoost) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +4.0 | Closing line +0.2 | 30.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Momentum Spread Model (XGB) | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line +4.0 | Closing line +0.2 | 31.8% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +3.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 30.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +3.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 28.6% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +3.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 33.3% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) | nfl | 19 / 19 | Closing line +3.5 | Closing line +0.2 | 21.1% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=19 | |
| [Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +3.0 | Closing line +0.1 | 23.8% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL MLP Moneyline | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line +2.7 | Closing line +0.1 | 45.5% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (ExtraTrees) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +2.5 | Closing line +0.1 | 30.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Moneyline (CatBoost) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +2.5 | Closing line +0.1 | 47.6% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +2.2 | Closing line +0.1 | 52.4% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +2.0 | Closing line +0.1 | 33.3% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL ML Stacking (Calibrated) | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line +1.6 | Closing line +0.1 | 40.9% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] NFL Moneyline (Ridge Classifier) | nfl | 19 / 19 | Closing line +1.3 | Closing line +0.1 | 52.6% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=19 | |
| [Auto] NFL Online SGD ML | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line +1.1 | Closing line 0.0 | 27.3% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg) | nfl | 19 / 19 | Closing line +0.8 | Closing line 0.0 | 52.6% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=19 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +0.8 | Closing line 0.0 | 45.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (MARS) | nfl | 18 / 18 | Closing line +0.5 | Closing line 0.0 | 16.7% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=18 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (KNN) | nfl | 18 / 18 | Closing line +0.5 | Closing line 0.0 | 22.2% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=18 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +0.4 | Closing line 0.0 | 38.1% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Moneyline (Voting Ensemble) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line +0.3 | Closing line 0.0 | 42.9% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +0.1 | Closing line 0.0 | 50.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Moneyline (ExtraTrees) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line +0.1 | Closing line 0.0 | 50.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Random Forest) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line -0.1 | Closing line 0.0 | 40.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Spread (XGBoost) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line -0.5 | Closing line 0.0 | 40.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line -1.4 | Closing line -0.1 | 35.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear) | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line -1.5 | Closing line -0.1 | 31.8% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM) | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line -1.5 | Closing line -0.1 | 22.7% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] Sharkai Starter: NFL Spread | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line -2.0 | Closing line -0.1 | 33.3% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] NFL Spread (CatBoost) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line -2.0 | Closing line -0.1 | 30.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line -2.5 | Closing line -0.1 | 28.6% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Game Total Model (XGB) | nfl | 22 / 22 | Closing line -2.5 | Closing line -0.1 | 27.3% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=22 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line -3.0 | Closing line -0.1 | 23.8% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear) | nfl | 21 / 21 | Closing line -3.5 | Closing line -0.2 | 23.8% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=21 | |
| [Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB) | nfl | 20 / 20 | Closing line -3.5 | Closing line -0.2 | 25.0% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=20 | |
| [Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost) | nfl | 23 / 23 | Closing line -4.5 | Closing line -0.2 | 21.7% Live · picks published in the last 30 days · n=23 |
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