Insights
Receipts first. Every number traces to a graded row.
The same receipts query feeds Picks, Insights and the Sunday digest — it can never disagree with itself.
Leaderboard · hit rate by lens
Leaderboard · models, lenses, pundits, crews · baseline never leaves
Headline performance is ATS spread win rate. Pushes remain in graded spread plays but are excluded from the ATS spread denominator.
| Entry | Kind | Graded spread plays | ATS spread win rate | $100-flat · secondary | CLV · secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Auto] MLB Run Line (Gaussian Process) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=115 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-20T09:00:00.606554+00:00 | model | 115 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] MLB Run Line (HistGradientBoosting) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=115 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-20T09:00:00.606554+00:00 | model | 115 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NHL Puck Line (Gaussian Process) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=7 graded spread plays · as of 2026-08-28T01:40:30.487538+00:00 | model | 7 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NHL Puck Line (HistGradientBoosting) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=7 graded spread plays · as of 2026-08-28T01:40:30.487538+00:00 | model | 7 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NHL Puck Line (KNN) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=7 graded spread plays · as of 2026-08-28T01:40:30.487538+00:00 | model | 7 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NHL Puck Line (MARS) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=7 graded spread plays · as of 2026-08-28T01:40:30.487538+00:00 | model | 7 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NHL Puck Line Model (LightGBM) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=7 graded spread plays · as of 2026-08-28T01:40:30.487538+00:00 | model | 7 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread (AdaBoost) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread (Gaussian Process) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread (HistGradientBoosting) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread (KNN) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread (MARS) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread (SVR) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread Model (LightGBM) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| [Auto] NBA Spread Predictor (XGBoost) insights_model_leaderboard_mat (prediction_results + predictions, refreshed hourly) · n=5 graded spread plays · as of 2026-05-18T09:00:00.585548+00:00 | model | 5 | — | $0.00 | — |
| Market consensus baseline · bet every favourite nfl_schedules · n=7,245 graded spread plays · as of 2026-02-08 | baseline | 7,245 | 48.7% · n=7,050 | — | — |
The baseline's graded spread plays and ATS spread win rate come from nfl_schedules. Its $100-flat and CLV cells stay — because nfl_schedules has no price or closing-value columns.
No phase-1 graded ATS spread join is loaded for: community lens, pundit, crew.
States
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Cold query
skeleton over the graded population, with the cached previous result under it
computing over 272,826 graded plays · as of Aug 28, 4:40 AM ET
Small n
cells under 50 plays grey with the n; never hidden
1 of 5 baked widget rows carry n under 50— clv-distribution n=0
Week not graded
games still pending — numbers update at final
50 upcoming games not final in the 50-game window this page reads· last graded Aug 28, 4:40 AM ET
Disagreement guard
if Receipts ≠ Picks → Record for the same filter, the page shows the diff and files an issue
checked this render: aggregate and per-market sum agree · last graded Aug 28, 4:40 AM ET