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NFL Picks
15 picks · 2 models · Predictions: 1h ago
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Thu, Oct 8 · 20:15 · Wk 5 kicks in 2d 21h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): TB at DAL, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the DAL side; posted line 9.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors TB: predicted margin 3.12 vs posted line 9.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular DAL side at 9.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
Pick TB
DAL -9.5
+6.4 pts vs spread
Play: TB +9.5
Mdl DAL -3.1 · Mkt DAL -9.5
SPR DAL -9.5 O/U 47.5 ML TB +370 / DAL −485
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): LV at NE, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the NE side; posted line 3.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors NE: predicted margin 9.5 vs posted line 3.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular NE side at 3.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
LV
Pick NE -3.5
+6.0 pts vs spread
Play: NE -3.5
Mdl NE -9.5 · Mkt NE -3.5
SPR NE -3.5 O/U 45.5 ML LV +160 / NE −192
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): HOU at TEN, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the HOU side; posted line -7. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors TEN: predicted margin -4.65 vs posted line -7. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular HOU side at -7 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
HOU -7.0
TEN
+4.2 pts vs total
Play: Over 39.5
SPR HOU -7.0 O/U 39.5 ML HOU −345 / TEN +275
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): NYG at WAS, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the WAS side; posted line 3. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors NYG: predicted margin -0.91 vs posted line 3. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular WAS side at 3 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
Pick NYG
WAS -3.0
+3.9 pts vs spread
Play: NYG +3.0
Mdl NYG -0.9 · Mkt WAS -3.0
SPR WAS -3.0 O/U 43.5 ML NYG +140 / WAS −166
Sun, Oct 11 · 16:25 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 17h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): SF at SEA, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the SEA side; posted line 2.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors SEA: predicted margin 6.32 vs posted line 2.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular SEA side at 2.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
SF
Pick SEA -2.5
+3.8 pts vs spread
Play: SEA -2.5
Mdl SEA -6.3 · Mkt SEA -2.5
SPR SEA -2.5 O/U 47.5 ML SF +124 / SEA −148
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): IND at PIT, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the PIT side; posted line 2.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors IND: predicted margin 1.29 vs posted line 2.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular PIT side at 2.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
IND
PIT -2.5
+3.2 pts vs total
Play: Over 44.5
SPR PIT -2.5 O/U 44.5 ML IND +114 / PIT −135
Mon, Oct 12 · 20:15 · Wk 5 kicks in 6d 21h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): BUF at LA, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the LA side; posted line 2.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors LA: predicted margin 3.26 vs posted line 2.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular LA side at 2.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
BUF
Pick LA -2.5
+0.8 pts vs spread
Play: LA -2.5
Mdl LA -3.3 · Mkt LA -2.5
SPR LA -2.5 O/U 54.5 ML BUF +130 / LA −155
Sun, Oct 11 · 09:30 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 10h
LOW lens: Sharp finds value on the JAX side; posted line 6.5.
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): PHI at JAX, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the JAX side; posted line 6.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors JAX: predicted margin 6.15 vs posted line 6.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular JAX side at 6.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
PHI
JAX -7.0
No prediction
SPR JAX -7.0 O/U 42.5 ML PHI +230 / JAX −285
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
LOW lens: Sharp finds value on the CHI side; posted line -3.
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): CHI at GB, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the CHI side; posted line -3. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors CHI: predicted margin -1.12 vs posted line -3. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular CHI side at -3 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
CHI -3.0
GB
No prediction
SPR CHI -3.0 O/U 45.5 ML CHI −155 / GB +130
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
LOW lens: Sharp finds value on the CIN side; posted line -7.
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): CIN at MIA, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the CIN side; posted line -7. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors MIA: predicted margin 0.29 vs posted line -7. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular CIN side at -7 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
CIN -7.0
MIA
No prediction
SPR CIN -7.0 O/U 42.5 ML CIN −345 / MIA +275
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
LOW lens: Sharp finds value on the NYJ side; posted line 2.5.
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): CLE at NYJ, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the NYJ side; posted line 2.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors CLE: predicted margin -1.18 vs posted line 2.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular NYJ side at 2.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
CLE
NYJ -2.5
No prediction
SPR NYJ -2.5 O/U 39.5 ML CLE +110 / NYJ −130
Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 14h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): MIN at NO, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the MIN side; posted line -1.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors NO: predicted margin 0.47 vs posted line -1.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular MIN side at -1.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
MIN
Pick NO
2 models
Mdl NO -0.5
Sun, Oct 11 · 16:05 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 17h
LOW lens: Sharp finds value on the DEN side; posted line -3.5.
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): DEN at LAC, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the DEN side; posted line -3.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors LAC: predicted margin -0.38 vs posted line -3.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular DEN side at -3.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
DEN -3.5
LAC
No prediction
SPR DEN -3.5 O/U 42.5 ML DEN −185 / LAC +154
Sun, Oct 11 · 16:25 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 17h
LOW lens: Sharp finds value on the DET side; posted line -4.5.
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): DET at ARI, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the DET side; posted line -4.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors ARI: predicted margin -3.97 vs posted line -4.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular DET side at -4.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
DET -4.5
ARI
No prediction
SPR DET -4.5 O/U 54.5 ML DET −225 / ARI +185
Sun, Oct 11 · 20:20 · Wk 5 kicks in 5d 21h
Sharkai lenses
fan: Fan lens (narrative): BAL at ATL, week 5, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Oct 6
sharp: Sharp finds value on the BAL side; posted line -2.5. 152-174 (47%, n=326) house · baked Oct 6
modeler: Modeler favors ATL: predicted margin -0.15 vs posted line -2.5. 141-140 (50%, n=281) house · baked Oct 6
contrarian: Fade case: the popular BAL side at -2.5 is the overpriced one. 173-158 (52%, n=331) house · baked Oct 6
BAL
Pick ATL
2 models
Mdl BAL -0.1
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House ATS record
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NFL 2026 Week 4
Every graded pick on this slate, one row each.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Line | Close | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | DET @ CAR | Game spread | CAR +3.5 | -4.5 | W | -1.00 |
| Oct 4 | LAC @ SEA | Game spread | LAC +7 | +7.0 | L | 0.00 |
| Oct 4 | KC @ LV | Game spread | LV +5.5 | -5.5 | W | 0.00 |
| Oct 4 | DEN @ SF | game moneyline | SF ML | -170.0 | W | +0.25 |
| Oct 4 | MIA @ MIN | Game spread | MIN −7.5 | +9.5 | L | +2.00 |
| Oct 4 | DAL @ HOU | game moneyline | DAL ML | +130.0 | W | -0.16 |
| Oct 4 | NE @ BUF | Game spread | NE +3 | +7.0 | W | -4.00 |
| Oct 4 | TEN @ BAL | game moneyline | TEN ML | +450.0 | L | -1.40 |
| Oct 4 | JAX @ CIN | game moneyline | CIN ML | -145.0 | L | +0.03 |
| Oct 4 | LA @ PHI | Game spread | PHI +1.5 | -3.5 | L | -2.00 |
| Oct 4 | ARI @ NYG | Game spread | ARI +7 | -2.5 | L | +9.50 |
| Oct 4 | NYJ @ CHI | game moneyline | NYJ ML | +166.0 | L | +1.44 |
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