Skip to content

Essential storage, first-party measurement. Plausible, Sentry, visit log off unless you Accept all.

Settings
$1 first week
CURRENT
▲-10 → -9.5 (+0.5) over 24 captures TB @ DAL DAL -10 → -9.5 · DraftKings — open TB @ DAL matchup■ house House record, last 10: 8–2 · NFL ATS, last 90 days: 66.7% (n=30) · Early sample · 30 of 50 plays · 22h ago — open the house record
nflnbamlbnhl
More pick tools
Model predictions Book feed as of Mon, Oct 5, 10:07 PM EDT

Model Track Record

Counts only picks made before kickoff

Every pick on this page was generated before its game started and graded against the final result. Anything recorded after a game settled is excluded, so the record here is real forward performance. A model has no record until it has made picks ahead of upcoming games.

Cover rate by model, sport and market against the −110 break-even (52.38%), built on 11,320 forward picks. New picks are graded nightly.

Strong +EV
9
edge ≥ +5pts, n ≥ 30
Strong Fade
42
edge ≤ −5pts, n ≥ 30
Leak Suspect
0
edge ≥ +20pts (improbable)
Combos
148
model × sport × market
Sport: Market: Min picks:
ModelSport / MarketNRecordCoverEdgeROI/pickVerdict
Model name unavailable
NFL · Spread3114-17
45.2% n=31 · marginal [27.6%–62.7%]
—
-13.8% n=31 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player RBIs (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_rbis130100-30
76.9% n=130 · strong [69.7%–84.2%]
—
46.9% n=130 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Strikeouts (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_strikeouts12482-42
66.1% n=124 · strong [57.8%–74.5%]
—
26.2% n=124 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Home Runs (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_home_runs311278-33
89.4% n=311 · strong [86.0%–92.8%]
—
70.7% n=311 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Strikeouts (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_strikeouts12473-51
58.9% n=124 · strong [50.2%–67.5%]
—
12.4% n=124 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Walks (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_walks315166-149
52.7% n=315 · strong [47.2%–58.2%]
—
0.6% n=315 · strong
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_receiving_yards387219-168
56.6% n=387 · strong [51.7%–61.5%]
—
8.0% n=387 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Walks (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_walks315213-102
67.6% n=315 · strong [62.5%–72.8%]
—
29.1% n=315 · strong
n<5
[Auto] CFB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
CFB · Moneyline5933-26
55.9% n=59 · marginal [43.3%–68.6%]
—
6.8% n=59 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player RBIs (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_rbis13099-31
76.2% n=130 · strong [68.8%–83.5%]
—
45.4% n=130 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Home Runs (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_home_runs311280-31
90.0% n=311 · strong [86.7%–93.4%]
—
71.9% n=311 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Hits (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_hits11171-40
64.0% n=111 · strong [55.0%–72.9%]
—
22.1% n=111 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Player Total Bases (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_total_bases220148-72
67.3% n=220 · strong [61.1%–73.5%]
—
28.4% n=220 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
MLB · Moneyline9546-49
48.4% n=95 · marginal [38.4%–58.5%]
—
-7.6% n=95 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
MLB · Moneyline9542-53
44.2% n=95 · marginal [34.2%–54.2%]
—
-15.6% n=95 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)
MLB · Spread9856-42
57.1% n=98 · marginal [47.3%–66.9%]
—
9.1% n=98 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)
MLB · Spread14279-61-2
56.4% n=140 / 142 · strong [48.2%–64.6%]
—
7.6% n=142 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
MLB · Moneyline15085-65
56.7% n=150 · strong [48.7%–64.6%]
—
8.2% n=150 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Run Line (HistGradientBoosting)
MLB · Spread14273-67-2
52.1% n=140 / 142 · strong [43.9%–60.4%]
—
-0.4% n=142 · strong
n<5
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Logistic Regression)
CFB · Moneyline5938-21
64.4% n=59 · marginal [52.2%–76.6%]
—
23.0% n=59 · marginal
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_passing_yards3718-19
48.6% n=37 · marginal [32.5%–64.8%]
—
-7.1% n=37 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (TabPFN)
MLB · Moneyline14482-62
56.9% n=144 · strong [48.9%–65.0%]
—
8.7% n=144 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Run Line (MARS)
MLB · Spread14272-68-2
51.4% n=140 / 142 · strong [43.1%–59.7%]
—
-1.8% n=142 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
MLB · Moneyline13072-58
55.4% n=130 · strong [46.8%–63.9%]
—
5.7% n=130 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Predictor (XGBoost)
MLB · Moneyline14483-61
57.6% n=144 · strong [49.6%–65.7%]
—
10.0% n=144 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Run Total (LightGBM)
MLB · Total14275-61-6
55.1% n=136 / 142 · strong [46.8%–63.5%]
—
5.1% n=142 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
MLB · Moneyline14485-59
59.0% n=144 · strong [51.0%–67.1%]
—
12.7% n=144 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Predictor (XGBoost)
MLB · Moneyline14484-60
58.3% n=144 · strong [50.3%–66.4%]
—
11.4% n=144 · strong
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_rushing_yards17279-93
45.9% n=172 · strong [38.5%–53.4%]
—
-12.3% n=172 · strong
n<5
[Auto] CFB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
CFB · Moneyline5933-26
55.9% n=59 · marginal [43.3%–68.6%]
—
6.8% n=59 · marginal
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_receptions350191-159
54.6% n=350 · strong [49.4%–59.8%]
—
4.2% n=350 · strong
n<5
[Auto] NHL Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
NHL · Moneyline10457-47
54.8% n=104 · strong [45.2%–64.4%]
—
4.6% n=104 · strong
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_interceptions3923-16
59.0% n=39 · marginal [43.5%–74.4%]
—
12.6% n=39 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] NHL Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
NHL · Moneyline10458-46
55.8% n=104 · strong [46.2%–65.3%]
—
6.5% n=104 · strong
n<5
[Auto] NHL Moneyline (CatBoost)
NHL · Moneyline10457-47
54.8% n=104 · strong [45.2%–64.4%]
—
4.6% n=104 · strong
n<5
[Auto] CFB Moneyline (CatBoost)
CFB · Moneyline5942-17
71.2% n=59 · marginal [59.6%–82.7%]
—
35.9% n=59 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] NHL Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NHL · Moneyline10448-56
46.2% n=104 · strong [36.6%–55.7%]
—
-11.9% n=104 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
MLB · Moneyline14484-60
58.3% n=144 · strong [50.3%–66.4%]
—
11.4% n=144 · strong
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_passing_tds5733-24
57.9% n=57 · marginal [45.1%–70.7%]
—
10.5% n=57 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] MLB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
MLB · Moneyline14476-68
52.8% n=144 · strong [44.6%–60.9%]
—
0.8% n=144 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (CatBoost)
MLB · Moneyline14482-62
56.9% n=144 · strong [48.9%–65.0%]
—
8.7% n=144 · strong
n<5
[Auto] MLB Run Total (LightGBM)
MLB · Total14273-63-6
53.7% n=136 / 142 · strong [45.3%–62.1%]
—
2.4% n=142 · strong
n<5
Model name unavailable
NFL · Spread3220-10-2
66.7% n=30 / 32 · marginal [49.8%–83.5%]
—
25.6% n=32 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
CFB · Moneyline5941-18
69.5% n=59 · marginal [57.7%–81.2%]
—
32.7% n=59 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
CFB · Moneyline5940-19
67.8% n=59 · marginal [55.9%–79.7%]
—
29.4% n=59 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Logistic Regression)
CFB · Moneyline5938-21
64.4% n=59 · marginal [52.2%–76.6%]
—
23.0% n=59 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] NHL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NHL · Moneyline10439-65
37.5% n=104 · strong [28.2%–46.8%]
—
-28.4% n=104 · strong
n<5
Model name unavailable
NHL · Spread3724-13
64.9% n=37 · marginal [49.5%–80.2%]
—
23.8% n=37 · marginal
n<5
[Auto] NFL Spread (MARS)
NFL · Spread3724-13
64.9% n=37 · marginal [49.5%–80.2%]
+12.7pts
23.8% n=37 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL ML Stacking (Calibrated)
NFL · Moneyline4831-17
64.6% n=48 · marginal [51.1%–78.1%]
+12.3pts
23.3% n=48 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline4424-20
54.5% n=44 · marginal [39.8%–69.3%]
+9.5pts
4.1% n=44 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL ML Stacking (Calibrated)
NFL · Moneyline4528-17
62.2% n=45 · marginal [48.1%–76.4%]
+9.0pts
18.8% n=45 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline6337-26
58.7% n=63 · marginal [46.6%–70.9%]
+8.0pts
12.1% n=63 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline4524-21
53.3% n=45 · marginal [38.8%–67.9%]
+7.8pts
1.8% n=45 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread4527-18
60.0% n=45 · marginal [45.7%–74.3%]
+7.7pts
14.5% n=45 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline6334-29
54.0% n=63 · marginal [41.7%–66.3%]
+5.5pts
3.0% n=63 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB)
NFL · Total4526-19
57.8% n=45 · marginal [43.3%–72.2%]
+5.4pts
10.3% n=45 · marginal
+EV
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread5329-22-2
56.9% n=51 / 53 · marginal [43.3%–70.5%]
+4.6pts
8.2% n=53 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)
NFL · Spread4825-19-4
56.8% n=44 / 48 · marginal [42.2%–71.5%]
+4.5pts
7.8% n=48 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Spread4322-17-4
56.4% n=39 / 43 · marginal [40.8%–72.0%]
+4.1pts
7.0% n=43 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble)
NFL · Spread4222-17-3
56.4% n=39 / 42 · marginal [40.8%–72.0%]
+4.1pts
7.1% n=42 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline4424-20
54.5% n=44 · marginal [39.8%–69.3%]
+4.0pts
4.1% n=44 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (KNN)
NFL · Spread4324-19
55.8% n=43 · marginal [41.0%–70.7%]
+3.3pts
6.6% n=43 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread5327-22-4
55.1% n=49 / 53 · marginal [41.2%–69.0%]
+2.9pts
4.8% n=53 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (KNN)
NFL · Spread4522-18-5
55.0% n=40 / 45 · marginal [39.6%–70.4%]
+2.8pts
4.4% n=45 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread4422-18-4
55.0% n=40 / 44 · marginal [39.6%–70.4%]
+2.7pts
4.5% n=44 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline4723-24
48.9% n=47 · marginal [34.6%–63.2%]
+2.3pts
-6.6% n=47 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble)
NFL · Spread4424-20
54.5% n=44 · marginal [39.8%–69.3%]
+2.0pts
4.1% n=44 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective)
NFL · Spread5025-21-4
54.3% n=46 / 50 · marginal [40.0%–68.7%]
+2.0pts
3.5% n=50 · marginal
+lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (XGB)
NFL · Spread4825-21-2
54.3% n=46 / 48 · marginal [40.0%–68.7%]
+2.0pts
3.6% n=48 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)
NFL · Spread6133-28
54.1% n=61 · marginal [41.6%–66.6%]
+1.7pts
3.3% n=61 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Game Total Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Total6334-29
54.0% n=63 · marginal [41.7%–66.3%]
+1.7pts
3.0% n=63 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Game Total Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Total6334-29
54.0% n=63 · marginal [41.7%–66.3%]
+1.7pts
3.0% n=63 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Spread (MARS)
NFL · Spread4723-20-4
53.5% n=43 / 47 · marginal [38.6%–68.4%]
+1.0pts
1.9% n=47 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective)
NFL · Spread4524-21
53.3% n=45 · marginal [38.8%–67.9%]
+0.9pts
1.8% n=45 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Spread Stacking
NFL · Spread4524-21
53.3% n=45 · marginal [38.8%–67.9%]
+0.7pts
1.8% n=45 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline5030-20
60.0% n=50 · marginal [46.4%–73.6%]
+0.7pts
14.5% n=50 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL GNN Matchup
NFL · Spread4524-21
53.3% n=45 · marginal [38.8%–67.9%]
+0.6pts
1.8% n=45 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Online SGD ML
NFL · Moneyline4520-25
44.4% n=45 · marginal [29.9%–59.0%]
+0.4pts
-15.2% n=45 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL GNN Matchup
NFL · Spread4421-19-4
52.5% n=40 / 44 · marginal [37.0%–68.0%]
+0.1pts
0.2% n=44 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts)
NFL · Spread4423-21
52.3% n=44 · marginal [37.5%–67.0%]
-0.0pts
-0.2% n=44 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline4721-26
44.7% n=47 · marginal [30.5%–58.9%]
-0.2pts
-14.7% n=47 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Spread Stacking
NFL · Spread5325-23-5
52.1% n=48 / 53 · marginal [38.0%–66.2%]
-0.3pts
-0.5% n=53 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB)
NFL · Total5428-26
51.9% n=54 · marginal [38.5%–65.2%]
-0.5pts
-1.0% n=54 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (XGB)
NFL · Spread5024-23-3
51.1% n=47 / 50 · marginal [36.8%–65.4%]
-1.2pts
-2.4% n=50 · marginal
flat
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline4422-22
50.0% n=44 · marginal [35.2%–64.8%]
-1.4pts
-4.5% n=44 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Game Total Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Total6332-31
50.8% n=63 · marginal [38.4%–63.1%]
-1.5pts
-3.0% n=63 · marginal
flat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts)
NFL · Spread4523-22
51.1% n=45 · marginal [36.5%–65.7%]
-1.6pts
-2.4% n=45 · marginal
flat
Model name unavailable
NFL · Total4824-24
50.0% n=48 · marginal [35.9%–64.1%]
-2.0pts
-4.5% n=48 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread4822-22-4
50.0% n=44 / 48 · marginal [35.2%–64.8%]
-2.2pts
-4.2% n=48 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (AdaBoost)
NFL · Spread4721-21-5
50.0% n=42 / 47 · marginal [34.9%–65.1%]
-2.3pts
-4.1% n=47 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread6331-31-1
50.0% n=62 / 63 · marginal [37.6%–62.4%]
-2.3pts
-4.5% n=63 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread5123-24-4
48.9% n=47 / 51 · marginal [34.6%–63.2%]
-3.3pts
-6.1% n=51 · marginal
fade lean
Model name unavailable
NFL · Moneyline3321-12
63.6% n=33 · marginal [47.2%–80.0%]
-3.3pts
21.5% n=33 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Spread4522-23
48.9% n=45 · marginal [34.3%–63.5%]
-3.5pts
-6.7% n=45 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread4522-23
48.9% n=45 · marginal [34.3%–63.5%]
-3.6pts
-6.7% n=45 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting)
NFL · Spread4620-21-5
48.8% n=41 / 46 · marginal [33.5%–64.1%]
-3.6pts
-6.1% n=46 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Spread (CatBoost)
NFL · Spread4522-23
48.9% n=45 · marginal [34.3%–63.5%]
-3.7pts
-6.7% n=45 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread6330-32-1
48.4% n=62 / 63 · marginal [35.9%–60.8%]
-3.9pts
-7.5% n=63 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread6330-32-1
48.4% n=62 / 63 · marginal [35.9%–60.8%]
-4.0pts
-7.5% n=63 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread6330-32-1
48.4% n=62 / 63 · marginal [35.9%–60.8%]
-4.1pts
-7.5% n=63 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread5123-25-3
47.9% n=48 / 51 · marginal [33.8%–62.0%]
-4.2pts
-8.0% n=51 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Game Total Model (XGB)
NFL · Total4622-24
47.8% n=46 · marginal [33.4%–62.3%]
-4.5pts
-8.7% n=46 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline4524-21
53.3% n=45 · marginal [38.8%–67.9%]
-4.6pts
1.8% n=45 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (XGB)
NFL · Spread4921-23-5
47.7% n=44 / 49 · marginal [33.0%–62.5%]
-4.6pts
-8.0% n=49 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL MLP Spread
NFL · Spread4620-22-4
47.6% n=42 / 46 · marginal [32.5%–62.7%]
-4.8pts
-8.3% n=46 · marginal
fade lean
[Auto] NFL Multi-Task Spread
NFL · Spread5222-25-5
46.8% n=47 / 52 · marginal [32.5%–61.1%]
-5.5pts
-9.6% n=52 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Online SGD ML
NFL · Moneyline4419-25
43.2% n=44 · marginal [28.5%–57.8%]
-5.5pts
-17.6% n=44 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Spread (Gaussian Process)
NFL · Spread4521-24
46.7% n=45 · marginal [32.1%–61.2%]
-5.6pts
-10.9% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL MLP Spread
NFL · Spread4521-24
46.7% n=45 · marginal [32.1%–61.2%]
-5.7pts
-10.9% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts)
NFL · Spread4318-21-4
46.2% n=39 / 43 · marginal [30.5%–61.8%]
-6.0pts
-10.8% n=43 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline4420-24
45.5% n=44 · marginal [30.7%–60.2%]
-6.8pts
-13.2% n=44 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread4619-23-4
45.2% n=42 / 46 · marginal [30.2%–60.3%]
-7.0pts
-12.5% n=46 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Spread (Gaussian Process)
NFL · Spread4920-25-4
44.4% n=45 / 49 · marginal [29.9%–59.0%]
-7.8pts
-13.9% n=49 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread4520-25
44.4% n=45 · marginal [29.9%–59.0%]
-7.9pts
-15.2% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread4520-25
44.4% n=45 · marginal [29.9%–59.0%]
-8.0pts
-15.2% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting)
NFL · Spread4520-25
44.4% n=45 · marginal [29.9%–59.0%]
-8.0pts
-15.2% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble)
NFL · Spread4518-23-4
43.9% n=41 / 45 · marginal [28.7%–59.1%]
-8.3pts
-14.7% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread6327-35-1
43.5% n=62 / 63 · marginal [31.2%–55.9%]
-8.7pts
-16.6% n=63 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread5422-29-3
43.1% n=51 / 54 · marginal [29.5%–56.7%]
-9.0pts
-16.7% n=54 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline4820-28
41.7% n=48 · marginal [27.7%–55.6%]
-10.1pts
-20.5% n=48 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread4519-26
42.2% n=45 · marginal [27.8%–56.7%]
-10.1pts
-19.4% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian)
NFL · Spread4519-26
42.2% n=45 · marginal [27.8%–56.7%]
-10.2pts
-19.4% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Multi-Task Spread
NFL · Spread4519-26
42.2% n=45 · marginal [27.8%–56.7%]
-10.2pts
-19.4% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread4519-26
42.2% n=45 · marginal [27.8%–56.7%]
-10.3pts
-19.4% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread6326-36-1
41.9% n=62 / 63 · marginal [29.7%–54.2%]
-10.4pts
-19.6% n=63 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian)
NFL · Spread4417-25-2
40.5% n=42 / 44 · marginal [25.6%–55.3%]
-11.5pts
-21.7% n=44 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Spread (AdaBoost)
NFL · Spread4518-27
40.0% n=45 · marginal [25.7%–54.3%]
-12.3pts
-23.6% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread4518-27
40.0% n=45 · marginal [25.7%–54.3%]
-12.6pts
-23.6% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Sharkie Starter: NFL Spread
NFL · Spread4518-27
40.0% n=45 · marginal [25.7%–54.3%]
-12.6pts
-23.6% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian)
NFL · Spread4516-25-4
39.0% n=41 / 45 · marginal [24.1%–54.0%]
-13.2pts
-23.2% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (CatBoost)
NFL · Moneyline4516-29
35.6% n=45 · marginal [21.6%–49.5%]
-14.0pts
-32.1% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline6324-39
38.1% n=63 · marginal [26.1%–50.1%]
-14.8pts
-27.3% n=63 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline6324-39
38.1% n=63 · marginal [26.1%–50.1%]
-14.8pts
-27.3% n=63 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Voting Ensemble)
NFL · Moneyline4917-32
34.7% n=49 · marginal [21.4%–48.0%]
-15.3pts
-33.8% n=49 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline6324-39
38.1% n=63 · marginal [26.1%–50.1%]
-15.3pts
-27.3% n=63 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Moneyline4316-27
37.2% n=43 · marginal [22.8%–51.7%]
-15.3pts
-29.0% n=43 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline4416-28
36.4% n=44 · marginal [22.1%–50.6%]
-15.5pts
-30.6% n=44 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL MLP Moneyline
NFL · Moneyline4516-29
35.6% n=45 · marginal [21.6%–49.5%]
-16.6pts
-32.1% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN)
NFL · Moneyline4516-29
35.6% n=45 · marginal [21.6%–49.5%]
-16.7pts
-32.1% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline4516-29
35.6% n=45 · marginal [21.6%–49.5%]
-16.7pts
-32.1% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Moneyline4516-29
35.6% n=45 · marginal [21.6%–49.5%]
-16.7pts
-32.1% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline4516-29
35.6% n=45 · marginal [21.6%–49.5%]
-16.7pts
-32.1% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN)
NFL · Moneyline6322-41
34.9% n=63 · marginal [23.1%–46.7%]
-17.1pts
-33.3% n=63 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL MLP Moneyline
NFL · Moneyline4816-32
33.3% n=48 · marginal [20.0%–46.7%]
-18.4pts
-36.4% n=48 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline4815-33
31.3% n=48 · marginal [18.1%–44.4%]
-19.4pts
-40.3% n=48 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Voting Ensemble)
NFL · Moneyline4515-30
33.3% n=45 · marginal [19.6%–47.1%]
-20.4pts
-36.4% n=45 · marginal
Fade
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline4514-31
31.1% n=45 · marginal [17.6%–44.6%]
-21.6pts
-40.6% n=45 · marginal
Fade

Methodology: cover_rate = wins / (wins + losses) excluding pushes. edge_vs_break_even = cover_rate − 0.5238 (the 52.38% breakeven for a −110 standard payout). ROI/pick is derived from the same wins and losses at that stated price, then shown as a percentage. Materialized view refreshed via SELECT public.refresh_model_cover_rate_mv() — currently auto-refreshed nightly with the multi-sport grader.

Our best model, graded in public.