An odds convertor translates any betting price — American, decimal, or fractional — into the implied probability (the break-even win rate) that makes the bet break even. It is the one tool that turns a price tag into a decision number you can compare to your own model or read on the matchup. Below we show the math and this week's actual moneylines as proof.
Two-sentence summary: An odds convertor turns any price — American, decimal, or fractional — into the break-even win rate baked into that price. If your estimate of the true probability beats that implied number by more than the vig (the book's cut), you have a positive-expectation bet, and the convertor is the tool that makes that comparison easy.
What is an odds convertor?
An odds convertor turns any betting line into the break-even win percentage. Every odds format is a different way to quote the same thing: the payout ratio on a winning bet. The convertor strips the format and returns the implied probability (the break-even win rate) — the win percentage at which the bet neither makes nor loses money over the long run.
- American (US default): -150 means risk $150 to win $100; +150 means risk $100 to win $150.
- Decimal (international standard): 1.67 means a $1 bet returns $1.67 total (stake included).
- Fractional (UK/horse racing): 1/2 means win $1 for every $2 risked (profit-only quote).
The formulas are short and worth memorizing:
- Negative American (-N):
N / (N + 100)→ -150 = 150/250 = 60% - Positive American (+N):
100 / (N + 100)→ +150 = 100/250 = 40% - Decimal:
1 / decimal→ 1.67 = 59.9% - Fractional (a/b):
b / (a + b)→ 1/2 = 2/3 = 66.7%
What does this week's live conversion table show?
Our feed captures moneylines across NFL and college games. The table below shows this week's moneyline prices — one row per game — with citations to our live odds data. Each moneyline converts directly to an implied probability using the formulas above.
| Game | Moneyline | Implied Probability | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Titans | -210 | 67.7% | |
| North Carolina @ TCU | -320 | 76.2% | |
| North Carolina @ TCU (alt line) | -350 | 77.8% | |
| San Jose State @ USC | -5000 | 98.0% | |
| NC State @ Virginia | -220 | 68.8% | |
| Jacksonville St @ NDSU | -300 | 75.0% | |
| Sacramento St @ EMU | -400 | 80.0% | |
| Hawaii @ Stanford | -220 | 68.8% | |
| New Mexico St @ FSU | -4000 | 97.6% | |
| Memphis @ UNLV | -220 | 68.8% | |
| Massachusetts @ Rutgers | -3500 | 97.2% | |
| West Georgia @ Kennesaw | -2000 | 95.2% | |
| Akron @ Wake Forest | -2200 | 95.7% | |
| UAlbany @ Buffalo | -2500 | 96.2% | |
| Merrimack @ Delaware | -3000 | 96.8% | |
| Bethune-Cookman @ UCF | -5000 | 98.0% | |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mizzou | -7500 | 98.7% | |
| Colorado @ Georgia Tech | -300 / -280 | 75.0% / 73.7% | |
| Eastern Illinois @ Minnesota | -5000 | 98.0% | |
| Idaho @ Utah | -4000 | 97.6% | |
| UAB @ Illinois | -3000 | 96.8% | |
| San Jose St @ EMU | -200 | 66.7% | |
| NC A&T @ Georgia State | -3000 | 96.8% | |
| Indiana State @ Purdue | -4500 | 97.8% | |
| LIU @ Kansas | -5000 | 98.0% | |
| UTEP @ Oklahoma | -6000 / -6500 | 98.4% / 98.5% |
Moneylines captured 2026-08-23 from game_odds. Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds (vig included). Full board at /odds.
Why line shopping matters
Notice Colorado @ Georgia Tech appears twice: -300 and -280 . That 20-cent gap moves the implied probability from 75.0% to 73.7% — a 1.3 percentage-point difference. In the NFL, gaps around key moneyline thresholds (e.g., -110 to -120, -150 to -160) are even more impactful per dollar risked. That is why line shopping dominates long-term results. A convertor lets you see the probability cost of every cent instantly.
How do you turn implied probability into an edge?
The convertor gives you the market's number. Your job is to decide if the true probability is higher. If North Carolina at ML -320 implies 76.2% but your model — or the model builder — says 80%, you have a 3.8-point edge. The vig (the book's cut) is already baked into the implied number; you just need to beat it.
Two practical habits:
- Convert every price you see. Eventually the implied probability (break-even win rate) becomes the native language — you see -150 and think "60%," not "risk $150."
- Shop the line, then convert. One book has ML -300, another -280. The convertor shows 75.0% vs 73.7%. That 1.3-point gap is real money over a season. Our college picks feed and NFL picks feed show dispersion (different lines at different books) so you can spot it.
Where does the convertor live in your workflow?
Use it when you pull up a game on the odds board, when you log a bet in the track record, or when you backtest a model in the workshop. The math is the same everywhere — implied probability (break-even win rate) is the common currency of every betting decision.
What would change our mind?
If North Carolina ML -320 at TCU moves to ML -260 after a quarterback injury, the implied probability drops from 76.2% to 72.2% — a 4-point shift that can turn a marginal lean into a no-bet. That specific line move is the concrete flip condition.
Bet responsibly — set limits, never chase losses.
Expected bankroll growth at 55% edge
Expected geometric growth of a $100 bankroll under different Kelly multipliers across 1000 bets at p=0.55, decimal=2. Full Kelly maximises long-run growth but produces the deepest drawdowns; fractional Kelly trades growth for variance.
EV per $100 across win rate × odds grid
Expected value of a $100 stake at each combination of true win rate and market odds. Anywhere the cell is positive you have a long-run profitable bet; the magnitude shows how aggressive Kelly will size it.
