Model Track Record
How our house models actually score — Brier, log-loss, ATS cover rate and calibration over a rolling window. No cherry-picking, no paywall.
Window
No graded results for All in this window.
No graded model results in the last 90 days. Metrics populate as games settle.
Model leaderboard
Best and worst house models by Brier (min 20 scored picks), split into live record and backtest history. Names link to the model page.
Live record
No live-tracked picks yet — records below are backtests
Backtest
Not enough per-model history yet — models need 20+ scored picks to rank.
Last retrain
When each playbook last shipped a freshly trained model.
- bp_catboost_nba_spread NBA
- bp_ats_xgb_nfl_spread NFL
- bp_cover_nba_xgb NBA
- bp_ada_nba_spread NBA
- bp_catboost_nba_ml NBA
- bp_catboost_mlb_ml MLB
- bp_ats_xgb_nba_spread NBA
- bp_svr_nfl_spread NFL
- bp_nba_player_pra_lgbm NBA
- bp_nfl_player_passing_yards_xgb NFL
- bp_mlb_player_walks_quantile MLB
- bp_nhl_player_assists_xgb NHL
- bp_turnover_regression_elasticnet NFL
- bp_ridgecl_nfl_ml NFL
- bp_moneyline_elo_logistic NFL
- bp_market_nfl_spread NFL
- bp_full_feature_spread_xgb NFL
- bp_elo_spread_linear_shap NFL
- bp_catboost_nfl_spread NFL
- bp_first_half_spread_xgb NFL
- bp_elo_nfl_ml NFL
- bp_feature_store_xgb NFL
- bp_cover_nfl_xgb NFL
- bp_minimal_nfl_ml NFL
Generated Fri, 28 Aug 2026 03:01:10 GMT · 90-day window