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Edge · My models

Your models, graded exactly like the house

Settled picks and hit rate come from the settlement ledger. Tonight eligibility separately requires an ATS edge over market, at least 100 same-row decisions, and a maximum calibration gap of 2 points.

House model records

Every published house pick graded in the last 90 days, best record first, with the sample size beside each number.

  • Moneyline

    House NFL moneyline model

    15-5

    75.0% win rate · n=20

    Early sample · 20 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Against the spread

    House NFL spread model

    24-12-3

    66.7% win rate · n=36

    Early sample · 36 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Moneyline

    House NHL moneyline model

    18-10

    64.3% win rate · n=28

    Early sample · 28 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Passing tds

    House NFL passing tds model

    41-28

    59.4% win rate · n=69

    n=69, last 90 days, 95% CI 47.6–70.2%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Game totals

    House MLB total model

    11-8-2

    57.9% win rate · n=19

    Early sample · 19 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Against the spread

    House NHL spread model

    48-36

    57.1% win rate · n=84

    n=84, last 90 days, 95% CI 46.5–67.2%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Receiving yards

    House NFL receiving yards model

    237-185

    56.2% win rate · n=422

    n=422, last 90 days, 95% CI 51.4–60.8%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Game totals

    House NHL total model

    33-26

    55.9% win rate · n=59

    n=59, last 90 days, 95% CI 43.3–67.8%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Receptions

    House NFL receptions model

    217-174

    55.5% win rate · n=391

    n=391, last 90 days, 95% CI 50.5–60.3%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Interceptions

    House NFL interceptions model

    22-22

    50.0% win rate · n=44

    Early sample · 44 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Moneyline

    House MLB moneyline model

    2-2

    50.0% win rate · n=4

    Early sample · 4 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Game totals

    House NFL total model

    28-30

    48.3% win rate · n=58

    n=58, last 90 days, 95% CI 35.9–60.8%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Rushing yards

    House NFL rushing yards model

    89-104

    46.1% win rate · n=193

    n=193, last 90 days, 95% CI 39.2–53.2%

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Passing yards

    House NFL passing yards model

    20-26

    43.5% win rate · n=46

    Early sample · 46 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

  • Against the spread

    House MLB spread model

    8-11-1

    42.1% win rate · n=19

    Early sample · 19 of 50 plays

    Graded in the last 90 days

Every model's record · spread · break-even 52.4% at −110

Full sample · 50+ graded plays each · as of Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET

ModelnATS %Wilson 95% CICLVas of
[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)9857.1%47.3– 66.5%—Sep 25, 1:34 PM ET
[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)14456.9%48.8– 64.7%—Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)5255.8%42.3– 68.4%-0.14Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)6254.8%42.5– 66.6%0.00Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)5054.0%40.4– 67.0%-0.46Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] MLB Run Line (HistGradientBoosting)14452.8%44.7– 60.8%—Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET
[Auto] MLB Run Line (MARS)14452.1%44.0– 60.1%—Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)6349.2%37.3– 61.2%-0.19Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)6347.6%35.8– 59.7%-0.06Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)6347.6%35.8– 59.7%0.03Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)6347.6%35.8– 59.7%0.06Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)6342.9%31.4– 55.1%-0.09Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)5242.3%29.9– 55.8%-0.16Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)6341.3%30.0– 53.6%-0.14Oct 5, 11:34 PM ET

Model record map

Sample size, ATS edge and closing-line value from the same graded spread record.

Sample size vs ATS edgeEach model's graded plays against percentage points over break-even-10.4-7.2-4.0-0.82.45.641.463.685.9108.1130.4152.6[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN): graded plays98.0, ATS edge (pp)4.7[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN): graded plays144.0, ATS edge (pp)4.5[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet): graded plays52.0, ATS edge (pp)3.4[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR): graded plays62.0, ATS edge (pp)2.4[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost): graded plays50.0, ATS edge (pp)1.6[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)[Auto] MLB Run Line (HistGradientBoosting): graded plays144.0, ATS edge (pp)0.4[Auto] MLB Run Line (HistGradientBoosting)[Auto] MLB Run Line (MARS): graded plays144.0, ATS edge (pp)-0.3[Auto] MLB Run Line (MARS)[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet): graded plays63.0, ATS edge (pp)-3.2[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM): graded plays63.0, ATS edge (pp)-4.8[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet): graded plays63.0, ATS edge (pp)-4.8[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet): graded plays63.0, ATS edge (pp)-4.8[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear): graded plays63.0, ATS edge (pp)-9.5[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)ATS EDGE (PP)GRADED PLAYSModel record · as of Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET
Average CLV by modelOnly rows with a computed closing-line value-1-0.5000.501[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet): 0.06[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)0.06[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet): 0.03[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)0.03[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR): 0[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)0[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM): -0.06[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)-0.06[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear): -0.09[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)-0.09[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet): -0.14[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)-0.14[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet): -0.19[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)-0.19[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost): -0.46[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)-0.46AVERAGE CLVModel record · as of Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET

Model record · as of Oct 7, 2:08 AM ET

[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)

The best spread record on the board, read from its graded plays.

ATS spread win rate

Ready

57.1%

n=98 decided spread plays

as of Sep 25

CLV

—

n=98 graded spread plays

as of Sep 25

two things to try:

  • restrict to Road underdogs · under 3 (+1.6 est. on n=48)

Your models

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House models

  • Mainframe Totals NFL

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=478

    settled

    Ready

    478

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    55.7%

    as of May 16

    55.7% · 95% CI 51.2–60.0% (Wilson, n=478) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Coverage Forge NFL

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=376

    settled

    Ready

    376

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    52.2%

    as of May 16

    52.2% · 95% CI 47.1–57.1% (Wilson, n=376) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
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  • Edge Reader NFL ML

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=498

    settled

    Ready

    498

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    53.5%

    as of May 16

    53.5% · 95% CI 49.0–57.8% (Wilson, n=498) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Drive Engine NFL Props

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=226

    settled

    Ready

    226

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    49.8%

    as of May 16

    49.8% · 95% CI 43.5–56.5% (Wilson, n=226) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Closing Line Hawk NFL

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=317

    settled

    Ready

    317

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    55.4%

    as of May 16

    55.4% · 95% CI 49.7–60.6% (Wilson, n=317) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Primetime Pulse NFL

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=534

    settled

    Ready

    534

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    50.8%

    as of May 16

    50.8% · 95% CI 46.5–55.0% (Wilson, n=534) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Pace Sandbox NBA

    Anonymous · NBA · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=93

    settled

    Ready

    93

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    56.7%

    as of May 16

    56.7% · 95% CI 46.8–66.6% (Wilson, n=93) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · needs n ≥ 100
    SAMPLE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Three Point Tide NBA

    Anonymous · NBA · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=243

    settled

    Ready

    243

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    53.3%

    as of May 16

    53.3% · 95% CI 47.2–59.7% (Wilson, n=243) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Back-to-Back Bender NBA

    Anonymous · NBA · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=299

    settled

    Ready

    299

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    56.3%

    as of May 16

    56.3% · 95% CI 50.5–61.7% (Wilson, n=299) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Star Load Manager NBA

    Anonymous · NBA · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=122

    settled

    Ready

    122

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    50.7%

    as of May 16

    50.7% · 95% CI 42.1–59.5% (Wilson, n=122) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Hot-Hand Tracker NBA

    Anonymous · NBA · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=266

    settled

    Ready

    266

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    49.7%

    as of May 16

    49.7% · 95% CI 43.7–55.6% (Wilson, n=266) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Garbage Time Cutter NBA

    Anonymous · NBA · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=304

    settled

    Ready

    304

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    52.1%

    as of May 16

    52.1% · 95% CI 46.4–57.5% (Wilson, n=304) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Park Factor Refinery MLB

    Anonymous · MLB · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=294

    settled

    Ready

    294

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    54.8%

    as of May 16

    54.8% · 95% CI 49.0–60.4% (Wilson, n=294) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Bullpen Burn Index MLB

    Anonymous · MLB · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=319

    settled

    Ready

    319

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    56.5%

    as of May 16

    56.5% · 95% CI 50.9–61.8% (Wilson, n=319) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Statcast Stretch MLB

    Anonymous · MLB · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=469

    settled

    Ready

    469

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    53.1%

    as of May 16

    53.1% · 95% CI 48.6–57.6% (Wilson, n=469) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Weather Wager MLB

    Anonymous · MLB · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=344

    settled

    Ready

    344

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    50.6%

    as of May 16

    50.6% · 95% CI 45.3–55.8% (Wilson, n=344) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Goalie Pull Probabilities NHL

    Anonymous · NHL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=506

    settled

    Ready

    506

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    51.9%

    as of May 16

    51.9% · 95% CI 47.6–56.3% (Wilson, n=506) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Shotmap Tilt NHL

    Anonymous · NHL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=523

    settled

    Ready

    523

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    49.5%

    as of May 16

    49.5% · 95% CI 45.3–53.8% (Wilson, n=523) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Faceoff Fortunes NHL

    Anonymous · NHL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=434

    settled

    Ready

    434

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    57.5%

    as of May 16

    57.5% · 95% CI 52.9–62.2% (Wilson, n=434) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4%
    OK

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • xG Splitter Soccer

    Anonymous · SOCCER · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=347

    settled

    Ready

    347

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    54.0%

    as of May 16

    54.0% · 95% CI 48.9–59.3% (Wilson, n=347) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Set Piece Sharpie Soccer

    Anonymous · SOCCER · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=438

    settled

    Ready

    438

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    51.3%

    as of May 16

    51.3% · 95% CI 46.7–56.0% (Wilson, n=438) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Underdog Hammer Soccer

    Anonymous · SOCCER · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=271

    settled

    Ready

    271

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    56.6%

    as of May 16

    56.6% · 95% CI 50.5–62.2% (Wilson, n=271) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • Sharpline Spreads NFL

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=179

    settled

    Ready

    179

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    53.4%

    as of May 16

    53.4% · 95% CI 46.3–60.8% (Wilson, n=179) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

  • QB Pressure Index NFL

    Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

    live · stats stale
    Record source settlement ledger window settled ledger lifetime as of May 16, 6:37 PM ET · n=218

    settled

    Ready

    218

    as of May 16

    hit rate

    Ready

    54.9%

    as of May 16

    54.9% · 95% CI 48.4–61.5% (Wilson, n=218) · settled ledger lifetime · break-even 52.4% · edge inside the interval
    NOISE

    Tonight gate

    NOT YET GATED

    — · not yet gated

    This model card is not linked to a graded model history yet.

    Eligible — promote to lens
    Open Remix

Model card example

Mainframe Totals NFL

Anonymous · NFL · 1.0.0

not on Tonight

Tonight gate

— · not yet gated

two things to try: no suggestions computed yet