Model name unavailable
13-11-0 54.2%
- CLV
- +0.25 pts
- Training calibration gap
- —
- n
- 24
- As of
- Sep 22, 2026
Window: All live pregame grades
Edge Lab · choose a source-backed question
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Edge · Lab · Bench
Leaderboard
Every model with a live graded spread record stays on the board. Models with fewer than 30 decided games stay visible below the ranked field.
Ranked models
Ranked by ATS record, then closing-line value, then decided sample size.
Minimum sample: 30 decided games
| Rank | Model | Record | CLV | Training calibration gap | n | Window | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | NFL Spread (MARS) | 29-18-0 61.7% | -0.02 pts | — | 47 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #2 | NFL Spread (MARS) | 33-24-21 57.9% | +0.53 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #3 | Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet) | 36-29-13 55.4% | +0.03 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #4 | NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost) | 32-27-0 54.2% | +0.03 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #5 | NFL Spread (KNN) | 29-25-24 53.7% | +0.28 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #6 | NFL Spread (SVR) | 31-27-20 53.4% | +0.36 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #7 | NFL Spread (ExtraTrees) | 28-25-25 52.8% | +0.08 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #8 | NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost) | 33-30-15 52.4% | +0.08 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #9 | Momentum Spread Model (XGB) | 31-29-18 51.7% | +0.03 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #10 | Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble) | 27-26-25 50.9% | +0.46 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #11 | NFL Spread (KNN) | 29-28-0 50.9% | -0.04 pts | — | 57 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #12 | NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective) | 30-30-18 50.0% | +0.27 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #13 | Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet) | 27-27-24 50.0% | +0.26 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #14 | Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble) | 29-29-0 50.0% | +0.02 pts | — | 58 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #15 | NFL Spread (SVR) | 37-38-0 49.3% | +0.01 pts | — | 75 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #16 | NFL GNN Matchup | 29-30-0 49.2% | +0.11 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #17 | NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting) | 27-28-23 49.1% | +0.10 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #18 | NFL Spread Stacking | 30-32-16 48.4% | +0.36 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #19 | Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) | 28-30-0 48.3% | +0.02 pts | — | 58 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #20 | NFL GNN Matchup | 26-28-24 48.1% | +0.45 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #21 | Full Feature Spread (XGB) | 29-32-17 47.5% | +0.33 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #22 | Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM) | 29-32-17 47.5% | +0.08 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #23 | Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) | 28-31-0 47.5% | +0.09 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #24 | NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective) | 28-31-0 47.5% | 0.00 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #25 | Model name unavailable House default | 17-19-4 47.2% | +0.23 pts | — | 40 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #26 | Model name unavailable | 14-16-0 46.7% | +0.20 pts | — | 30 | All live pregame grades | Sep 23, 2026 |
| #27 | NFL Minimal Signal Spread (XGBoost) | 27-31-20 46.6% | +0.10 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #28 | NFL Spread (AdaBoost) | 26-30-22 46.4% | +0.18 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #29 | Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM) | 35-42-1 45.5% | +0.12 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #30 | Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet) | 35-42-1 45.5% | +0.06 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #31 | Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts) | 24-29-25 45.3% | +0.21 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #32 | Full Feature Spread (XGB) | 26-32-20 44.8% | +0.40 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #33 | NFL MLP Spread | 25-31-22 44.6% | +0.29 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #34 | NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost) | 25-31-22 44.6% | +0.10 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #35 | NFL Multi-Task Spread | 27-34-17 44.3% | +0.41 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #36 | Playbook (Py): Feature Store Spread Model (XGB) | 19-24-0 44.2% | +0.02 pts | — | 43 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #37 | Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet) | 34-43-1 44.2% | +0.25 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #38 | Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet) | 34-43-1 44.2% | +0.24 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #39 | NFL MLP Spread | 26-33-0 44.1% | +0.01 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #40 | NFL Spread (CatBoost) | 26-33-0 44.1% | -0.07 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #41 | SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear) | 27-35-16 43.5% | +0.10 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #42 | NFL Spread (Gaussian Process) | 25-34-19 42.4% | +0.33 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #43 | Playbook (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet) | 25-34-0 42.4% | +0.04 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #44 | NFL Spread (ExtraTrees) | 25-34-0 42.4% | 0.00 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #45 | Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble) | 23-32-23 41.8% | +0.36 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #46 | Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear) | 27-38-13 41.5% | +0.06 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #47 | SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear) | 31-46-1 40.3% | +0.13 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #48 | Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian) | 22-34-22 39.3% | +0.10 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #49 | NFL Multi-Task Spread | 23-36-0 39.0% | +0.07 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #50 | Playbook (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet) | 23-36-0 39.0% | +0.04 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #51 | NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting) | 23-36-0 39.0% | +0.03 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #52 | Playbook (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM) | 23-36-0 39.0% | -0.07 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #53 | Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM) | 23-36-0 39.0% | -0.08 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #54 | Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear) | 30-47-1 39.0% | +0.10 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #55 | Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian) | 21-34-23 38.2% | +0.14 pts | — | 78 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #56 | Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian) | 22-37-0 37.3% | -0.10 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #57 | Playbook (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear) | 22-37-0 37.3% | -0.11 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #58 | NFL Spread (AdaBoost) | 21-38-0 35.6% | +0.03 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #59 | Sharkai Starter: NFL Spread | 21-38-0 35.6% | -0.03 pts | — | 59 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #60 | NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost) | 14-29-0 32.6% | -0.16 pts | — | 43 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
| #61 | NFL Minimal Signal Spread (XGBoost) | 13-30-0 30.2% | -0.03 pts | — | 43 | All live pregame grades | Oct 12, 2026 |
Insufficient sample
Fewer than 30 live decided games. These models stay visible but are not assigned a rank.
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Coach
Ask a question → the Lab counts how it did over every graded game in the window. Read the caption → games counted, seasons covered, and the as-of date sit under every number. Compare on the Bench → calibration and leaderboard count their own games, so their numbers are not this one.