- House NFL Moneyline is the best model with a winning live record.
- The Week pack covers 12 of 16 games on the slate.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) offers the largest positive edge at 22.6 points.
- Detroit Lions (DET) has the broadest model agreement with 22 of 34 models on Detroit.
- Kansas City Chiefs (KC) leads win probability at 78% but is priced above the model at 86.7% implied.
The Best Model and Its Record
House NFL Moneyline is the best model. It carries a winning record over a live sample of games. See our NFL model methodology for how House NFL Moneyline is built.
Top Week 3 Picks by Win Probability
Kansas City Chiefs (KC) sits at 78% win probability against a market line of 86.7%. 8 of 34 models pick KC.
Detroit Lions (DET) shows positive edge at 0.6 points with a 75% win probability versus a market line of 74.4%. 22 of 34 models pick DET.
Seattle Seahawks (SEA) sits at 69% win probability against a market line of 78%. 19 of 34 models pick SEA.
San Francisco 49ers (SF) sits at 69% win probability against a market line of 82%. 24 of 34 models pick SF.
New York Giants (NYG) shows positive edge at 11.5 points with a 68% win probability versus a market line of 56.5%. 9 of 34 models pick NYG.
Buffalo Bills (BUF) sits at 64% win probability against a market line of 77.5%. 28 of 34 models pick BUF.
More Week 3 Picks
New Orleans Saints (NO) sits at 64% win probability against a market line of 64.9%. 25 of 34 models pick NO.
Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) shows positive edge at 22.6 points with a 62% win probability versus a market line of 39.4%. 7 of 34 models pick PIT.
Green Bay Packers (GB) sits at 59% win probability against a market line of 71%. 5 of 34 models pick GB.
Los Angeles Rams (LA) shows positive edge at 0.6 points with a 58% win probability versus a market line of 57.4%. 26 of 34 models pick LA.
Chicago Bears (CHI) shows positive edge at 21.9 points with a 57% win probability versus a market line of 35.1%. 9 of 34 models pick CHI.
Baltimore Ravens (BAL) sits at 55% win probability against a market line of 63.6%. 26 of 34 models pick BAL.
Win Probability and the Price
Several picks sit above their market price. Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) leads with a 22.6 point edge. Chicago Bears (CHI) follows at 21.9 points. New York Giants (NYG) offers 11.5 points.
Detroit Lions (DET) shows 0.6 points. Los Angeles Rams (LA) shows 0.6 points.
The remaining picks sit below their market price. Kansas City Chiefs (KC) shows the largest gap with a 78% model probability against a 86.7% market line. Buffalo Bills (BUF) sits at 64% versus 77.5%. San Francisco 49ers (SF) sits at 69% versus 82%.
Seattle Seahawks (SEA) sits at 69% versus 78%. Green Bay Packers (GB) sits at 59% versus 71%. Baltimore Ravens (BAL) sits at 55% versus 63.6%. New Orleans Saints (NO) sits at 64% versus 64.9%.
Week 3 FAQ
Which game has the highest model win probability? Kansas City Chiefs (KC) at 78%.
Which pick has the largest positive edge? Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) at 22.6 points.
How many games does the best model cover? The best model covers 12 of 16 games.
Which pick has the most model agreement? Buffalo Bills (BUF) with 28 of 34 models picking Buffalo.
Which games have no pick? Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, and Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Compare with Week 2 model picks to track performance.
The Receipts Drawer
Every number above comes from the Week 3 pack, built from our live model board.
Where these numbers come from
Pack week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4.
- Source wp-model = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#bestModel.
- Source wp-coverage = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#coverage.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_ATL_GB = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_ATL_GB.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_CAR_CLE = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_CAR_CLE.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_CIN_PIT = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_CIN_PIT.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_HOU_IND = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_HOU_IND.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_KC_MIA = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_KC_MIA.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_LAC_BUF = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_LAC_BUF.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_NE_JAX = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_NE_JAX.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_NYJ_DET = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_NYJ_DET.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_SEA_WAS = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_SEA_WAS.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_TEN_NYG = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_TEN_NYG.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_ARI_SF = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_ARI_SF.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_MIN_TB = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_MIN_TB.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_BAL_DAL = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_BAL_DAL.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_LV_NO = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_LV_NO.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_LA_DEN = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_LA_DEN.
- Source wp-g-2026_03_PHI_CHI = content_packs:week-pack-2026-w03-a1a4086c5ba4#games/2026_03_PHI_CHI.
