Sharp Action Backtest

For every game where books showed strong sharp consensus (avg_sharp_lean ≥ 15), did the sharp side actually win? Bucketed by lean strength. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Greater than that = +EV.

448 sharp bets graded

Confidence GREEN edge ≥ +5pts AND n ≥ 30 AMBER +2pts ≤ edge < +5pts RED edge < 0 (fade the sharp side)

🏀 NBA

NBA sharp action results by market and lean bucket
Market	Bucket	N	W–L–P	Cover Rate	Edge vs −110	Confidence
Moneyline	All ≥15	266	85–181	32.0%	-20.4pts	RED
↳	15–19	96	33–63	34.4%	-18.0pts	RED
↳	20–29	91	32–59	35.2%	-17.2pts	RED
↳	30–44	66	16–50	24.2%	-28.1pts	RED
↳	45+	13	4–9	30.8%	-21.6pts	RED
Spread	All ≥15	40	24–16	60.0%	+7.6pts	GREEN
↳	15–19	34	20–14	58.8%	+6.4pts	GREEN
↳	20–29	6	4–2	66.7%	+14.3pts	AMBER
Total	All ≥15	2	2–0	100.0%	+47.6pts	AMBER
↳	15–19	2	2–0	100.0%	+47.6pts	AMBER

🏒 NHL

NHL sharp action results by market and lean bucket
Market	Bucket	N	W–L–P	Cover Rate	Edge vs −110	Confidence
Moneyline	All ≥15	55	15–40	27.3%	-25.1pts	RED
↳	15–19	17	4–13	23.5%	-28.9pts	RED
↳	20–29	18	6–12	33.3%	-19.0pts	RED
↳	30–44	11	5–6	45.5%	-6.9pts	RED
↳	45+	9	0–9	0.0%	-52.4pts	RED
Spread	All ≥15	79	26–53	32.9%	-19.5pts	RED
↳	15–19	18	7–11	38.9%	-13.5pts	RED
↳	20–29	44	13–31	29.5%	-22.8pts	RED
↳	30–44	16	6–10	37.5%	-14.9pts	RED
↳	45+	1	0–1	0.0%	-52.4pts	RED
Total	All ≥15	6	2–4	33.3%	-19.0pts	RED
↳	15–19	4	2–2	50.0%	-2.4pts	RED
↳	20–29	1	0–1	0.0%	-52.4pts	RED
↳	30–44	1	0–1	0.0%	-52.4pts	RED