Sharp Action Backtest

For every game where books showed strong sharp consensus (avg_sharp_lean ≥ 15), did the sharp side actually win? Bucketed by lean strength. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Greater than that = +EV.

341 sharp bets graded

Confidence GREEN edge ≥ +5pts AND n ≥ 30 AMBER +2pts ≤ edge < +5pts RED edge < 0 (fade the sharp side)

⚾ MLB

MLB sharp action results by market and lean bucket
Market	Bucket	N	W–L–P	Cover Rate	Edge vs −110	Confidence
Moneyline	All ≥15	156	70–86	44.9%	-7.5pts	RED
↳	15–19	66	32–34	48.5%	-3.9pts	RED
↳	20–29	65	31–34	47.7%	-4.7pts	RED
↳	30–44	22	6–16	27.3%	-25.1pts	RED
↳	45+	3	1–2	33.3%	-19.0pts	RED
Spread	All ≥15	131	58–73	44.3%	-8.1pts	RED
↳	15–19	70	32–38	45.7%	-6.7pts	RED
↳	20–29	33	15–18	45.5%	-6.9pts	RED
↳	30–44	18	7–11	38.9%	-13.5pts	RED
↳	45+	10	4–6	40.0%	-12.4pts	RED
Total	All ≥15	54	20–34	37.0%	-15.3pts	RED
↳	15–19	35	11–24	31.4%	-21.0pts	RED
↳	20–29	12	5–7	41.7%	-10.7pts	RED
↳	30–44	7	4–3	57.1%	+4.8pts	AMBER