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$1 first week
  • SAMPLE · Small sample — 30 graded decisions so far; treat as directional until 100+.
  • CALIB · Calibration gap 58.0 points exceeds the 3-point guardrail.
nfl v1.0.0

House NFL Bridge - Preseason Prior (Elo) - Spread

NFL · custom

Projection · last 30 days · grading-batch time · n=55 27-24-4 (52.9% ATS) · last 30 days · grading-batch time · n=51 beat the closing line 29% of the time Full history: 27-24-4 (52.9% ATS) · window unlabeled · n=51
Backtest only — inferred publish pending. 27-24 (52.9% ATS) · n=55

Avg CLV +22.0

Week-1 preseason bridge prior (spread): 2025-season-close Elo ratings (538-style walk-forward, home-field advantage 65, 25 Elo points per predicted point, regressed 1/3 toward the 1505 mean for the offseason) predict the home-team spread for every 2026 week-1 game before any 2026 snap is played. Reviewed leakage-free backtest 2019-2025 (n=1917-1960 games): against-the-spread rate 48.72% (95% CI 46.49-50.96%), straight-up win-prediction rate 62.74% -- statistically a coin flip against the closing line, disclosed here exactly as measured, not as a demonstrated betting edge. Does not yet weight roster/coaching turnover into the published number (see scripts/bridge/serve-preseason-prior.py header for the follow-up this needs).

0 tailing
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Test games

The graded games behind this model's W-L-P.

55 graded test games

55 graded; 10 still ungraded. Ungraded predictions are not mixed into the W-L-P below.

27-24-4 (52.9% ATS) · window unlabeled · n=51 · as of Oct 13, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC

Showing 50 of 55; the settled ledger below pages through every graded row.

2026_05_BUF_LA

away

Win

3.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 12, 2026, 5:07 PM UTC

2026_05_CIN_MIA

home

Push

-7 · line at pick time

As of Oct 11, 2026, 2:07 PM UTC

2026_05_MIN_NO

away

Win

-2 · line at pick time

As of Oct 11, 2026, 3:07 PM UTC

2026_05_LV_NE

home

Win

3.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 9, 2026, 12:07 AM UTC

2026_05_NYG_WAS

away

Win

3.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 10, 2026, 8:07 AM UTC

2026_05_DET_ARI

home

Loss

-5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 11, 2026, 7:07 PM UTC

2026_05_CLE_NYJ

away

Loss

2.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 10, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC

2026_04_DET_CAR

home

Win

-4 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

2026_04_KC_LV

home

Win

-5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 7:07 PM UTC

2026_04_LAC_SEA

home

Push

7 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_04_JAX_CIN

away

Win

2.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_04_LA_PHI

home

Loss

-3.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_04_DAL_HOU

home

Loss

2.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_04_ARI_NYG

home

Win

-2.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_04_NYJ_CHI

home

Win

3.5 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_04_GB_TB

home

Push

-3 · line at pick time

As of Oct 4, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC

2026_03_PHI_CHI

home

Win

-3.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 27, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_03_LA_DEN

Side not recorded

Win

-2.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_03_BAL_DAL

home

Win

-3.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 24, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_03_LV_NO

home

Loss

3.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 27, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_03_NE_JAX

away

Loss

3 · line at pick time

As of Sep 24, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_03_CIN_PIT

home

Win

-3.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 24, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_03_HOU_IND

home

Win

-1.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 25, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC

2026_03_CAR_CLE

home

Win

-1.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 27, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_03_TEN_NYG

home

Win

2.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 25, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC

2026_03_KC_MIA

home

Loss

-10 · line at pick time

As of Sep 26, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

2026_02_LV_LAC

Side not recorded

Loss

6.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_IND_KC

Side not recorded

Win

5.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_NO_BAL

Side not recorded

Win

8.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_CLE_TB

Side not recorded

Win

7.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_MIA_SF

Side not recorded

Loss

13.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_SEA_ARI

Side not recorded

Win

-3.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_JAX_DEN

Side not recorded

Loss

3 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_WAS_DAL

Side not recorded

Win

3.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_PHI_TEN

Side not recorded

Win

-7 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_CAR_ATL

Side not recorded

Loss

-2.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_PIT_NE

Side not recorded

Win

5.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_CIN_HOU

Side not recorded

Loss

2.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_02_MIN_CHI

Side not recorded

Win

4.5 · line at pick time

As of Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

2026_01_NYJ_TEN

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_ATL_PIT

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_TB_CIN

away

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_NE_SEA

home

Push

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_SF_LA

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_GB_MIN

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_WAS_PHI

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_ARI_LAC

away

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_DAL_NYG

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_DEN_KC

away

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_CLE_JAX

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

Season heat

Weekly wins and losses by game date. Gray weeks had no decisions.

live pregame n=0 model scheduled game dates
No dated graded decisions in this window.

Decisive live-pregame outcomes grouped by scheduled game date; pushes and unavailable dates are excluded.

Receipts

50 loaded · 55 qualifying settled rows

Settled predictions for House NFL Bridge - Preseason Prior (Elo) - Spread
Grading batchMarketGameResultCLV
Oct 13, 2026game_spread2026_05_BUF_LAwin0.0
Oct 12, 2026game_spread2026_05_CIN_MIApush+50.0
Oct 12, 2026game_spread2026_05_MIN_NOwin0.0
Oct 12, 2026game_spread2026_05_LV_NEwin0.0
Oct 12, 2026game_spread2026_05_NYG_WASwin0.0
Oct 12, 2026game_spread2026_05_DET_ARIloss-50.0
Oct 12, 2026game_spread2026_05_CLE_NYJloss0.0
Oct 5, 2026game_spread2026_04_DET_CARwin-50.0
Oct 5, 2026game_spread2026_04_KC_LVwin-50.0
Oct 5, 2026game_spread2026_04_LAC_SEApush0.0
Oct 4, 2026game_spread2026_04_JAX_CINwin0.0
Oct 4, 2026game_spread2026_04_LA_PHIloss0.0
Oct 4, 2026game_spread2026_04_DAL_HOUloss+50.0
Oct 4, 2026game_spread2026_04_ARI_NYGwin0.0
Oct 4, 2026game_spread2026_04_NYJ_CHIwin0.0
Oct 4, 2026game_spread2026_04_GB_TBpush+50.0
Sep 29, 2026game_spread2026_03_PHI_CHIwin0.0
Sep 28, 2026game_spread2026_03_LA_DENwin—
Sep 28, 2026game_spread2026_03_BAL_DALwin0.0
Sep 28, 2026game_spread2026_03_LV_NOloss0.0
Sep 27, 2026game_spread2026_03_NE_JAXloss0.0
Sep 27, 2026game_spread2026_03_CIN_PITwin+50.0
Sep 27, 2026game_spread2026_03_HOU_INDwin0.0
Sep 27, 2026game_spread2026_03_CAR_CLEwin0.0
Sep 27, 2026game_spread2026_03_TEN_NYGwin0.0
Sep 27, 2026game_spread2026_03_KC_MIAloss0.0
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_LV_LACloss—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_IND_KCwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_NO_BALwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_CLE_TBwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_MIA_SFloss—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_SEA_ARIwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_JAX_DENloss—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_WAS_DALwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_PHI_TENwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_CAR_ATLloss—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_PIT_NEwin—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_CIN_HOUloss—
Sep 23, 2026game_spread2026_02_MIN_CHIwin—
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_NYJ_TENloss0.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_ATL_PITloss+350.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_TB_CINloss0.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_NE_SEApush-50.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_SF_LAloss0.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_GB_MINwin+50.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_WAS_PHIloss+100.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_ARI_LACwin+200.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_DAL_NYGwin0.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_DEN_KCloss+50.0
Sep 15, 2026game_spread2026_01_CLE_JAXloss+50.0

⑂ Remix this model

Turn knobs to put your own spin on House NFL Bridge - Preseason Prior (Elo) - Spread. Every change simulates against the parent’s real graded nfl games; it does not create a child record.

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Parent-record simulation

0.0%

27-24-4 on 55 graded games

ATS win rate vs the original

—

Same games as the original — turn a dial to compare.

Lens

Balanced

Every graded game.

Lens
Market slice
Train window
Engine
Features

Proof before save

  1. 1. Parent release: unavailable — saving is disabled
  2. 2. Requested changes: none yet
  3. 3. Simulation: 55 parent graded rows match; this is not child performance.
  4. 4. Child result: unavailable until the saved draft is trained and evaluated.

See the full run

You're seeing the headline record, the last 10 graded games and the sparkline. Unlock every graded game, the per-slice record, closing-line proof and your remix's upcoming picks with Pro — just $1 first week.

Last 10 graded games
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
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Draft tracking

No future draft picks are declared in this model's latest version.

Tune it

Pick a dial to see how tuning this model changes its win rate on the same graded games.

No settled calibration samples are available for this model yet. Return after picks settle.
No distribution yet — no graded samples in this window.
CLV river 41 settled picks · cumulative +9.0 line-value units
CLV river: 41 settled picks with captured closing-line values, cumulative line value +9.0 line-value units, ordered oldest to newest.Cumulative line value +9.0 after 41 settled picksoldestnewest

Inputs

  • team_power_ratings_bridge.rating

Version history

No immutable versions exist yet. Each release appears here when the owner publishes it.

Lineage

No ancestors or forks. This model stands alone — yet.