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D3 · Lenses

Every game has more than one truth.

Put the voices around one table, browse their records, compare their disagreements, or return to the lenses you follow.

Upcoming games · Lens Intelligence Board

Versioned game evidence first; a blocked read is never presented as a neutral signal.

board read 8/29/2026, 1:03:56 PM

NE @ SEA

2026-09-09 · 20:20

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-10T00:20:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3.5
Home / away price
-105 / -115
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 66 · threshold 65 · contribution 16

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

SF @ LA

2026-09-10 · 20:35

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-11T00:35:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3.5
Home / away price
-105 / -115
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

TB @ CIN

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3.5
Home / away price
-115 / -105
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

BAL @ IND

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
-3.5
Home / away price
-112 / -108
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

GB @ MIN

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
1.5
Home / away price
-102 / -118
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

BUF @ HOU

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
-1.5
Home / away price
-115 / -105
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

CLE @ JAX

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
7.5
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 67 · threshold 65 · contribution 17

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

ARI @ LAC

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
10.5
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

NO @ DET

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
7
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 77 · threshold 65 · contribution 27

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

CHI @ CAR

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
-2.5
Home / away price
-102 / -118
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on home · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 28 · threshold 35 · contribution 22

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

WAS @ PHI

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
4.5
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

MIA @ LV

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3.5
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

NYJ @ TEN

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3
Home / away price
+100 / -120
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

ATL @ PIT

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3
Home / away price
-120 / +100
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 69 · threshold 65 · contribution 19

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

DAL @ NYG

2026-09-13 · 20:20

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-14T00:20:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
-2.5
Home / away price
-105 / -115
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on home · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 29 · threshold 35 · contribution 21

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

DEN @ KC

2026-09-14 · 20:15

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3
Home / away price
-105 / -115
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
87837s old at cutoff
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

DET @ BUF

2026-09-17 · 20:15

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-18T00:15:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
3
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
unavailable
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

CAR @ ATL

2026-09-20 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
1.5
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.325+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
unavailable
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

NO @ BAL

2026-09-20 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
7.5
Home / away price
-110 / -110
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.325+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
unavailable
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

JAX @ DEN

2026-09-20 · 16:05

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-20T20:05:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot
2.5
Home / away price
-115 / -105
Source updated
2026-08-29T12:45:09.325+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle
GRADING
Historical sample
not measured
Evaluation
insufficient data
Uncertainty
not measured
Split freshness
unavailable
Model role
admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

Edge Atlas · where the market is beatable this season

24 lenses in the bake · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

lift vs the 52.4% break-even, by lens × claim class · n in each cell · tap a graded cell for its reading regime:
edge-direction
line-value
spread
total
F Casual bettor
—1,753 ungraded
—
—
—
· Combined injury attrition total
—
—
—
—n 3
· Contrarian
—
—
—
· Division dog
—
—
—
· Injury cluster
—
—
—n 3
—
· Line value
—
—
—
· Qb out
—
—
—
· Sharp
—
—
—
· Short week both sides total
—
—
—
· Short week fade
—
—
—n 3
—
· Steam move
—
—
—7 ungraded
—1 ungraded
· Total key number
—
—
—
—1 ungraded
· Ats streak regression
—
—
—
· Cold weather late season total
—
—
—
· Divisional primetime combo
—
—
—
· Home dog primetime
—
—
—
· Calibration
—
—
—
· Modeler
—
—
—
· Public fade
—
—
—5 ungraded
—
· Residual
—
—
—
· Rest advantage
—
—
—
· Prime time under
—
—
—
· Pundit:yt ben solak
—n 12
—
—
—
37 registered lenses with no edge-direction / line-value / spread / total claims yet
F Beat
—
—
—
—
· Disagreement
—
—
—
—
· Drift
—
—
—
—
· Hype fade
—
—
—
—
· Injury redistribution
—
—
—
—
· Injury whisper confirm
—
—
—
—
· Model market gap
—
—
—
—
· Roster
—
—
—
—
· Key number cross
—
—
—
—
· Matchup
—
—
—
—
· Ml divisional dog
—
—
—
—
· Ml value dog
—
—
—
—
· Model conviction pickem
—
—
—
—
· Splits divergence
—
—
—
—
· Divisional dog
—
—
—
—
· Model edge
—
—
—
—
· Primetime dog
—
—
—
—
· Rest edge
—
—
—
—
· Sharp vs public
—
—
—
—
· Starters out
—
—
—
—
· Travel lag
—
—
—
—
· Uncertainty
—
—
—
—
· Usage share
—
—
—
—
· Wind under
—
—
—
—
· Consensus
—
—
—
—
· Ensemble disagreement
—
—
—
—
F Fan
—
—
—
—
· Favorite trap
—
—
—
—
F Historian
—
—
—
—
· Counterfactual
—
—
—
—
· Regime
—
—
—
—
· Rest and bullpen
—
—
—
—
· Reverse line move
—
—
—
—
· Official tendencies
—
—
—
—
· Oline whisper fade
—
—
—
—
· Pace x usage
—
—
—
—
· Park factors
—
—
—
—

Hottest cell · all weeks

Divisional primetime combo × spread: 56.3% ATS on 142 graded claims · lift +3.9 pts vs the 52.4% break-even

sharkai_calibration_ledger · 152 claims, 142 graded · as of Aug 26

Show the lens Send to Bench as Filter

60 lenses × 4 claim classes · 10,244 of 14,507 claims graded · as of Aug 29

Highest graded aggregate in this bake

Calibration currently leads the graded Atlas rows available to this route.

53.3% ATS · n=300 · lift +3.3pt · CLV — · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

Pundit leaderboard · real people as lenses

Ranked by ATS hit rate. CLV — priced at call time versus the close — breaks a tie only when both entries in it have a measured value; it is never required to enter the ranked board.

CLV is unavailable for tie-breaking in this refresh — unmeasured CLV shows as — and never counts as zero. Below-floor sources stay in the not-ranked list below.

4 ranked · 18 not ranked · as of Aug 29, 8:10 AM ET

No graded picks yet.

#PunditLinked source quoteCallsHitCLV95% CIBest atTail/fade
1The Bill Simmons Podcast

individual · podcast

The mentions/media_episodes join returned no linked quoted row.5662.3%— n=0——Fade 15-41
2Thinking Basketball

individual · youtube channel

The mentions/media_episodes join returned no linked quoted row.2758.4%— n=0——Fade 7-20
3Portland Trail Blazers (Official)

team official · youtube channel

The mentions/media_episodes join returned no linked quoted row.2055.7%— n=0——Fade 6-14
4CBS Sports NFL

aggregator · news rss

The mentions/media_episodes join returned no linked quoted row.2540.0%— n=0——Fade 16-9

Not ranked — tracked, never scored as zero

Unmeasured entries and measured samples below the stored publication floor remain visible here.

  • JxmyHighroller nba

    13 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Pro Football Focus nfl

    12 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • ESPN NFL News nfl

    9 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Pro Football Rumors nfl

    9 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • PFT PM (Florio) nfl

    6 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Windy City Gridiron (CHI) nfl

    6 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Yahoo Sports NFL nfl

    3 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Arrowhead Pride (KC) nfl

    2 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Ben Solak (The Football Show) nfl

    2 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Big Blue View (NYG) nfl

    2 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Bucs Nation (TB) nfl

    2 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Cat Scratch Reader (CAR) nfl

    2 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • SB Nation NFL nfl

    2 graded calls · Below the stored publication floor.

  • CBS Sports NFL nba

    1 graded call · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Fantasy Life (Matthew Berry) nfl

    1 graded call · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Niners Nation (SF) nfl

    1 graded call · Below the stored publication floor.

  • The Fantasy Footballers nfl

    1 graded call · Below the stored publication floor.

  • Up & Adams (Kay Adams) nfl

    1 graded call · Below the stored publication floor.

Linked mention evidence is partially unavailable (mentions query could not load linked pundit quote: permission denied for table mentions). Ranked CLV remains sourced from pundit_leaderboard.

Linked quotes are source-level episode mentions, not row-level graded-call citations; the current source and grade relations expose no shared citation identifier.

Nominate a pundit (link the tape) Pundit Arena · this week

How a pundit becomes a lens

Tape LIVE
podcast / show atomised into 100,319 mentions
Actual-call lens LIVE
179 graded claims
Style model NOT RUNNING
no style model has produced a take yet — this stage is not running
Leaderboard LIVE
27 ranked pundits, with n + CI
Remix LIVE
use them as a Feed, a Filter, or a duel opponent

Simulated takes are always labelled "simulated from N calls"; real quotes are ≤ 15 words, attributed and linked to the episode. Joke lenses are graded too — a serious lens that can't beat Coin Flip gets demoted, in public.

Lens index

24 lenses · hourly bake

Ranked by trailing-300 lift (lens_stats)

  1. #1 · Prime time under · n=300 · lift +4.7pt (CI -1.4pt to +10.7pt)
  2. #2 · Line value · n=300 · lift +3.9pt (CI -2.3pt to +9.8pt)
  3. #3 · Division dog · n=300 · lift +2.7pt (CI -3.5pt to +8.7pt)
  4. #4 · Rest advantage · n=300 · lift -1.8pt (CI -7.9pt to +4.3pt)
  5. #5 · Ats streak regression · n=300 · lift -6.5pt (CI -12.6pt to -0.3pt)
  6. unranked · Divisional primetime combo · n=145 · lift +3.5pt (CI -5.0pt to +11.7pt)
  7. unranked · Home dog primetime · n=162 · lift +0.5pt (CI -7.6pt to +8.4pt)
  8. unranked · Short week both sides total · n=120 · lift -1.4pt (CI -10.6pt to +7.6pt)
  9. unranked · Qb out · n=109 · lift -5.2pt (CI -14.7pt to +4.5pt)
Graded
300
Hit
53.3% ATS
Lift
+3.3pt
CLV
—
Gate
SURFACED
As of
Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Graded
300
Hit
53.0% ATS
Lift
+3.0pt
CLV
—
Gate
SURFACED
As of
Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

Modeler

SURFACED

300 graded

ARI @ LAC

The modeler notes that, while the ensemble is still weighing the matchup, its current edge remains undefined, leaving the projected outcome open to interpretation. The only concrete benchmark we have for now is the reference line of 10.5, which serves as the baseline until the model refreshes its feature weights. Ongoing disagreement among the underlying sub‑models suggests heightened uncertainty around the final total.

as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

 Use in Builder →
Graded
300
Hit
53.3% ATS
Lift
+3.3pt
CLV
—
Gate
SURFACED
As of
Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Graded
300
Hit
47.0% ATS
Lift
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276
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46.0% ATS
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Discovery · find a way of seeing

The same discovery surface as the Bench library: search, facets, "for your model", trending, by record.

ATS spread break-even at -110 is 52.4%; every rate below names its graded n.

showing 24 of 24 · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
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Ranked by ATS hit rate

lens_look_through · n=5 graded lenses matching current facets · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

  • Calibration

    model-evidence · SURFACED

    53.3% ATS spread · n=300

    +3.3pt lift · CLV not graded

  • Modeler

    model-evidence · SURFACED

    53.3% ATS spread · n=300

    +3.3pt lift · CLV not graded

  • Contrarian

    market-price · SURFACED

    53.0% ATS spread · n=300

    +3.0pt lift · CLV not graded

  • Sharp

    market-price · SURFACED

    47.0% ATS spread · n=300

    -3.0pt lift · CLV not graded

  • Residual

    model-evidence · SURFACED

    46.0% ATS spread · n=276

    -4.0pt lift · CLV not graded

ATS hit-rate board

lens_look_through · n=5 graded lenses · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

0.0%10.7%21.3%32.0%42.7%53.3%Calibration: 53.3%CalibrationModeler: 53.3%ModelerContrarian: 53.0%ContrarianSharp: 47.0%SharpResidual: 46.0%Residual

Sample size vs lift

lens_look_through · n=5 lift rows · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

Does the edge hold with sample?Each dot is one graded lens-4.4pt-2.8pt-1.1pt+0.5pt+2.1pt+3.8pt258.0270.0282.0294.0306.0318.0Calibration: graded n300.0, lift vs break-even+3.3ptCalibrationModeler: graded n300.0, lift vs break-even+3.3ptModelerContrarian: graded n300.0, lift vs break-even+3.0ptContrarianSharp: graded n300.0, lift vs break-even-3.0ptSharpResidual: graded n276.0, lift vs break-even-4.0ptResidualLIFT VS BREAK-EVENGRADED Nlens_look_through · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
LensGateRecord (ATS spread)Lift (ATS spread)CLVas-of
CalibrationSURFACED53.3% ATS spread · n=300+3.3pt · n=300not graded yet · n=300Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
ContrarianSURFACED53.0% ATS spread · n=300+3.0pt · n=300not graded yet · n=300Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
ModelerSURFACED53.3% ATS spread · n=300+3.3pt · n=300not graded yet · n=300Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
SharpSURFACED47.0% ATS spread · n=300-3.0pt · n=300not graded yet · n=300Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
ResidualSURFACED46.0% ATS spread · n=276-4.0pt · n=276not graded yet · n=276Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
BeatFEED_ONLYnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Casual bettorFEED_ONLYnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
ConsensusSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
CounterfactualSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
DisagreementSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
DriftSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Ensemble disagreementSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
FanFEED_ONLYnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
HistorianFEED_ONLYnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Injury redistributionSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
MatchupSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Official tendenciesSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Pace x usageSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Park factorsSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
RegimeSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Rest and bullpenSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
RosterSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
UncertaintySURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Usage shareSURFACEDnot graded yet · ATS spread · n=0not graded yet · n=0not graded yet · n=0Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

States

Anon

Atlas + split-game roundtable + index; Call it requires sign-in; Ask 3/day

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Trial / paid

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Nothing baked

the next bake time with its countdown, plus the last bake for this matchup if any

8 of 24 lenses carry a take in this bake · last bake Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET

Decaying

index row shows the drift arrow plus the demotion note with its trailing rate

0 of 24 lenses are gated DECAYING in this bake

Grading

provisional record in grey with n and the 1,000 target

0 of 24 lenses are gated GRADING in this bake

Ask failed

SharkAI names the rows it could not read; never an invented answer

the Ask read returned 26 baked answersfor NE @ SEA