Angles · look-through
Casual Bettor
Method card
Casual Bettor v2
A lopsided spread-ticket majority may be a measurable crowd lean; this lens fades that lean as a hypothesis and does not claim an edge without qualifying evaluation evidence.
- Market / side
- spread · selected side is opposite public ticket lean
- Source freshness
- 172800s maximum age
- Evidence summary
- insufficient data · n not measured
Method details are not published yet.
as of Oct 23, 7:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready38.6%
n=88
as of Oct 23
trailing 300
Ready38.6%
n=88
as of Oct 23
best market
Readyedge-direction
38.6% · n=88
as of Oct 23
weeks 1-9
Ready38.6%
n=88
as of Oct 23
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 23
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 23
Angle card · what every angle carries
“The public-side read: favorites and overs lean, flagged as "the public lean".”
The tell
edge-direction
Fires tonight on 10 games.
Blind spot
edge-direction (38.6% · n=88).
Famous call: MIA @ SF — edge-direction (53.8%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 88
- Hit · Brier
- 38.6% · 0.257
- Lift vs break-even
- -13.8 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 38.6% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- No model yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 38.6% | 88 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=88 · as of Oct 23, 7:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- edge-direction
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ CHI | edge-direction | 52.1% | miss |
| WAS @ SF | edge-direction | 53.4% | miss |
| TEN @ IND | edge-direction | 53.2% | miss |
| PIT @ TB | edge-direction | 50.7% | hit |
| NYJ @ NE | edge-direction | 53.4% | miss |
| NO @ NYG | edge-direction | 50.7% | miss |
| LAC @ KC | edge-direction | 53.4% | hit |
| HOU @ JAX | edge-direction | 51.7% | miss |
| DAL @ GB | edge-direction | 50.7% | miss |
| CHI @ ATL | edge-direction | 50.7% | miss |
Scoreboard
All time
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
No measurements to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Result |
|---|---|---|
| DEN @ KC | spread · away | loss |
| NYJ @ TEN | spread · home | loss |
| DAL @ NYG | spread · away | loss |
| WAS @ PHI | spread · home | loss |
| MIA @ LV | spread · home | win |
| ARI @ LAC | spread · away | win |
| GB @ MIN | spread · away | loss |
| ATL @ PIT | spread · home | win |
| BAL @ IND | spread · home | loss |
| CLE @ JAX | spread · home | win |