Lenses · look-through
Casual Bettor
Canonical Lens Passport
Casual Bettor v2
A lopsided spread-ticket majority may be a measurable crowd lean; this lens fades that lean as a hypothesis and does not claim an edge without qualifying evaluation evidence.
- Market / side
- spread · selected_side_is_opposite_public_ticket_lean
- Required evidence
- ticketsPctHome
- Source freshness
- 172800s maximum age
- Eligible roles
- feed, filter
- Feature schema
- lens-feature-vector-v1
- Definition hash
- sha256:ba3b13867a19776dc51ad8c473521ad2bff70aa66d4ed6007c4084f892606748
- Evidence summary
- insufficient data · n not measured
Versioned in code; persistence migration is pending. This passport cannot admit a model yet.
as of Aug 28, 7:32 AM ET
hit rate (all)
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
trailing 300
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
best market
—
— · n=0
as of Aug 28
weeks 1-9
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
Lens card · what every lens carries
“The public-side read: favorites and overs lean, flagged as "the public lean".”
Fires tonight on: 0 games.
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 0
- Hit · Brier
- — · —
- Lift vs break-even
- —
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early — · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Gate
- FEED_ONLY
- Remixed
- 0
Regime split
| weeks | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | — | 0 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=0 · as of Aug 28, 7:32 AM ET
Saying tonight
Quiet — the 7-take bake runs hourly at :41.
Last 10 graded claims
| game | claim | conf | result | CLV |
|---|
Scoreboard
all
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
t300
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
season
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
Reliability (lens_stats)
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly look-through bake) is a separate reading.
Regime split (lens_stats)
No regime beyond "overall" materialized yet for this lens (t300).
Recent signals
| game | market/side | percentile | evidence | grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ KC | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| NYJ @ TEN | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| DAL @ NYG | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| WAS @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| MIA @ LV | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| ARI @ LAC | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| GB @ MIN | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| ATL @ PIT | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| BAL @ IND | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| CLE @ JAX | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |