Lenses · look-through
Contrarian
as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
hit rate (all)
52.0%
n=1917
as of Aug 29
trailing 300
53.0%
n=300
as of Aug 29
best market
edge-direction
52.0% · n=1917
as of Aug 29
weeks 1-9
52.3%
n=931
as of Aug 29
weeks 10-18
51.5%
n=907
as of Aug 29
playoffs
55.1%
n=89
as of Aug 29
Lens card · what every lens carries
“The fade case: why the popular side is mispriced.”
The tell: edge-direction Fires tonight on: 10 games.
Blind spot: edge-direction (52.0% · n=1917).
Famous call: TEN @ MIN — edge-direction (54.5%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 1,917
- Hit · Brier
- 52.0% · 0.250
- Lift vs break-even
- -0.4 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 52.3% · late 51.5% · playoffs 55.1%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Gate
- SURFACED
- Remixed
- 0
Regime split
| weeks | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 52.3% | 931 |
| 10-18 | 51.5% | 907 |
| playoffs | 55.1% | 89 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=1917 · as of Aug 29, 7:25 AM ET
Tells it reads
- edge-direction
Saying tonight
- PIT @ CLE · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular PIT side at -2.5 is the overpriced one. (51.7%)
- PHI @ CHI · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular CHI side at 1.5 is the overpriced one. (50.7%)
- HOU @ IND · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular HOU side at -1.5 is the overpriced one. (50.7%)
- LAC @ BUF · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular BUF side at 3 is the overpriced one. (52.1%)
- NE @ JAX · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular JAX side at 1.5 is the overpriced one. (50.7%)
- NYJ @ DET · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular DET side at 9.5 is the overpriced one. (53.6%)
- LV @ NO · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular NO side at 3.5 is the overpriced one. (52.4%)
- CAR @ CLE · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular CAR side at -1.5 is the overpriced one. (50.7%)
- LA @ DEN · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular LA side at -3 is the overpriced one. (52.1%)
- MIN @ TB · [contrarian] Fade case: the popular TB side at 1.5 is the overpriced one. (50.7%)
Last 10 graded claims
| game | claim | conf | result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ ATL | edge-direction | 52.1% | miss | — |
| KC @ DEN | edge-direction | 52.1% | miss | — |
| JAX @ CIN | edge-direction | 52.6% | miss | — |
| WAS @ MIA | edge-direction | 53.1% | hit | — |
| TEN @ DEN | edge-direction | 49.8% | miss | — |
| SF @ LA | edge-direction | 52.1% | hit | — |
| SEA @ CLE | edge-direction | 49.8% | hit | — |
| PIT @ LAC | edge-direction | 53.1% | hit | — |
| PHI @ MIN | edge-direction | 52.4% | miss | — |
| NYG @ NE | edge-direction | 53.8% | miss | — |
Scoreboard
all
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
t300
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
season
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
Reliability (lens_stats)
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly look-through bake) is a separate reading.
Regime split (lens_stats)
No regime beyond "overall" materialized yet for this lens (t300).
Recent signals
| game | market/side | percentile | evidence | grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ SEA | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| MIA @ MIN | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| JAX @ CIN | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| NYJ @ CHI | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| NE @ BUF | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| TEN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| GB @ TB | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| LA @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| ARI @ NYG | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| DAL @ HOU | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |