Angles · look-through
Contrarian
as of Oct 23, 7:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready66.7%
n=12
as of Oct 23
trailing 300
Ready66.7%
n=12
as of Oct 23
best market
Readyedge-direction
66.7% · n=12
as of Oct 23
weeks 1-9
Ready66.7%
n=12
as of Oct 23
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 23
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 23
Angle card · what every angle carries
“The fade case: why the popular side is mispriced.”
The tell
edge-direction
Fires tonight on 3 games.
Blind spot
edge-direction (66.7% · n=12).
Famous call: DAL @ GB — edge-direction (53.2%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 12 Includes 1 past game replayed from pre-kickoff lines.
- Hit · Brier
- 66.7% · 0.241
- Lift vs break-even
- +14.3 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 66.7% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 66.7% | 12 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=12 · as of Oct 23, 7:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- edge-direction
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ PHI | edge-direction | 53.4% | miss |
| DAL @ GB | edge-direction | 53.2% | hit |
| SEA @ DEN | edge-direction | 51.6% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | edge-direction | 51.3% | miss |
| BAL @ CLE | edge-direction | 53.2% | hit |
| ARI @ LA | edge-direction | 51.4% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | edge-direction | 50.9% | miss |
| PHI @ JAX | edge-direction | 50.5% | hit |
| LV @ NE | edge-direction | 53.0% | hit |
| IND @ PIT | edge-direction | 50.4% | hit |
Scoreboard
All time
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
No measurements to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LAC @ SEA | spread · away | push |
| MIA @ MIN | spread · away | win |
| JAX @ CIN | spread · away | win |
| NYJ @ CHI | spread · away | loss |
| NE @ BUF | spread · away | win |
| TEN @ BAL | spread · away | win |
| GB @ TB | spread · home | push |
| LA @ PHI | spread · home | loss |
| ARI @ NYG | spread · away | loss |
| DAL @ HOU | spread · away | win |