Lenses · look-through
Modeler
as of Aug 28, 7:29 AM ET
hit rate (all)
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
trailing 300
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
best market
—
— · n=0
as of Aug 28
weeks 1-9
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Aug 28
Lens card · what every lens carries
“Our model’s edge and why: top features, uncertainty, ensemble disagreement.”
Fires tonight on: 0 games.
- Graded claims
- 1,716
- Hit · Brier
- 51.5% · 0.314
- Lift vs break-even
- -0.9 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early — · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Gate
- SURFACED
- Remixed
- 0
Regime split
| weeks | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | — | 0 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=0 · as of Aug 28, 7:29 AM ET
Saying tonight
Quiet — the 7-take bake runs hourly at :41.
Last 10 graded claims
| game | claim | conf | result | CLV |
|---|
Scoreboard
all
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
t300
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
season
Not yet materialized — the nightly lens_stats job (register L-04) has not written this lens for this window.
Reliability (lens_stats)
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly look-through bake) is a separate reading.
Regime split (lens_stats)
No regime beyond "overall" materialized yet for this lens (t300).
Recent signals
| game | market/side | percentile | evidence | grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ SEA | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| MIA @ MIN | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| JAX @ CIN | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| NYJ @ CHI | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| NE @ BUF | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| TEN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| GB @ TB | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| LA @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| ARI @ NYG | spread · away | 100% | no features recorded | pending |
| DAL @ HOU | spread · home | 100% | no features recorded | pending |