D3 · Lenses

Every game has more than one truth.

Put the voices around one table, browse their records, compare their disagreements, or return to the lenses you follow.

Upcoming games · Lens Intelligence Board

Versioned game evidence first; a blocked read is never presented as a neutral signal.

board read 8/29/2026, 1:03:34 PM

NE @ SEA

2026-09-09 · 20:20

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-10T00:20:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3.5
Home / away price: -105 / -115
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 66 · threshold 65 · contribution 16

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

SF @ LA

2026-09-10 · 20:35

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-11T00:35:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3.5
Home / away price: -105 / -115
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

TB @ CIN

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3.5
Home / away price: -115 / -105
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

BAL @ IND

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: -3.5
Home / away price: -112 / -108
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

GB @ MIN

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 1.5
Home / away price: -102 / -118
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

BUF @ HOU

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: -1.5
Home / away price: -115 / -105
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

CLE @ JAX

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 7.5
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 67 · threshold 65 · contribution 17

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

ARI @ LAC

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 10.5
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

NO @ DET

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 7
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 77 · threshold 65 · contribution 27

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

CHI @ CAR

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: -2.5
Home / away price: -102 / -118
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on home · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 28 · threshold 35 · contribution 22

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

WAS @ PHI

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 4.5
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

MIA @ LV

2026-09-13 · 16:25

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3.5
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

NYJ @ TEN

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3
Home / away price: +100 / -120
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

ATL @ PIT

2026-09-13 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3
Home / away price: -120 / +100
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on away · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 69 · threshold 65 · contribution 19

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

DAL @ NYG

2026-09-13 · 20:20

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-14T00:20:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: -2.5
Home / away price: -105 / -115
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Fires on home · evidence verified before cutoff

A fire is a hypothesis result, not proof of edge.

ticketsPctHome: 29 · threshold 35 · contribution 21

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

DEN @ KC

2026-09-14 · 20:15

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3
Home / away price: -105 / -115
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Eligible and evaluated · does not fire.

The required ticket percentage was available but did not clear the declared 65/35 threshold.

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: 87837s old at cutoff
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

DET @ BUF

2026-09-17 · 20:15

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-18T00:15:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 3
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.324+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: unavailable
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

CAR @ ATL

2026-09-20 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 1.5
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.325+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: unavailable
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

NO @ BAL

2026-09-20 · 13:00

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 7.5
Home / away price: -110 / -110
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.325+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: unavailable
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

JAX @ DEN

2026-09-20 · 16:05

Casual Bettor v2

Kickoff verified: 2026-09-20T20:05:00.000Z · America/New_York

Spread snapshot: 2.5
Home / away price: -115 / -105
Source updated: 2026-08-29T12:45:09.325+00:00

Cannot evaluate this game.

Evaluation boundary: missing betting splits source timestamp

Lifecycle: GRADING
Historical sample: not measured
Evaluation: insufficient data
Uncertainty: not measured
Split freshness: unavailable
Model role: admission required

Stats boundary: row missing for all/overall; this is not a query failure.

Passport persistence verified from lens_versions at 2026-08-26T14:35:07.627Z.

Open Lens Passport Create a composite Add to a model draft

Edge Atlas · where the market is beatable this season

0 lenses in the bake · as of hourly bake pending

lift vs the 52.4% break-even, by lens × claim class · n in each cell · tap a graded cell for its reading regime:

edge-direction

line-value

spread

total

F Casual bettor

—1,753 ungraded

—

· Combined injury attrition total

—

—n 3

· Contrarian

—

· Division dog

—

· Injury cluster

—

—n 3

—

· Line value

—

· Qb out

—

· Sharp

—

· Short week both sides total

—

· Short week fade

—

—n 3

—

· Steam move

—

—7 ungraded

—1 ungraded

· Total key number

—

—1 ungraded

· Ats streak regression

—

· Cold weather late season total

—

· Divisional primetime combo

—

· Home dog primetime

—

· Calibration

—

· Modeler

—

· Public fade

—

—5 ungraded

—

· Residual

—

· Rest advantage

—

· Prime time under

—

· Pundit:yt ben solak

—n 12

—

37 registered lenses with no edge-direction / line-value / spread / total claims yet

F Beat

—

· Disagreement

—

· Drift

—

· Hype fade

—

· Injury redistribution

—

· Injury whisper confirm

—

· Model market gap

—

· Roster

—

· Key number cross

—

· Matchup

—

· Ml divisional dog

—

· Ml value dog

—

· Model conviction pickem

—

· Splits divergence

—

· Divisional dog

—

· Model edge

—

· Primetime dog

—

· Rest edge

—

· Sharp vs public

—

· Starters out

—

· Travel lag

—

· Uncertainty

—

· Usage share

—

· Wind under

—

· Consensus

—

· Ensemble disagreement

—

F Fan

—

· Favorite trap

—

F Historian

—

· Counterfactual

—

· Regime

—

· Rest and bullpen

—

· Reverse line move

—

· Official tendencies

—

· Oline whisper fade

—

· Pace x usage

—

· Park factors

—

Hottest cell · all weeks

Divisional primetime combo × spread: 56.3% ATS on 142 graded claims · lift +3.9 pts vs the 52.4% break-even

sharkai_calibration_ledger · 152 claims, 142 graded · as of Aug 26

Show the lens Send to Bench as Filter

60 lenses × 4 claim classes · 10,244 of 14,507 claims graded · as of Aug 29

No graded Atlas reading yet.

The lens_look_through query returned no claiming lens with a hit rate and graded n.

Lens families

59 lenses across 11 families · registry as of 2026-08-28

A Market structure the money's own behaviour 8 lenses · 7 specced CANDIDATE 1 · SURFACED 7
B Model vs market the house projection against the price 6 lenses · 4 specced SURFACED 6
C Situational the schedule is a feature 9 lenses · 6 specced CANDIDATE 6 · SURFACED 3
D Roster and health who is actually playing 4 lenses · 5 specced CANDIDATE 1 · SURFACED 3
E Performance and regression what reverts, and by how much 1 lens · 7 specced CANDIDATE 1
- ats-streak-regression
F Market psychology contrarian, done properly — measured, per market 3 lenses · 5 specced SURFACED 3
G Meta-lenses lenses about lenses 6 lenses · 6 specced SURFACED 6
H Player / prop usage, matchup, pace 7 lenses · 7 specced SURFACED 7
I Personal lenses your own — same contract, same grading no lenses yet · ∞ specced No registered lenses are assigned to this family yet.
K Pundit and persona graded on their actual stated calls no lenses yet · 38 specced No registered lenses are assigned to this family yet.
J Narrative voices — never a claim, never a record 4 lenses · 5 specced FEED_ONLY 4
not graded · never a claim
Algebra Composite lenses No live catalog supplies composite-lens examples or independently graded results yet.

11 lenses are not yet mapped to a family: divisional-dog, hype-fade, injury-whisper-confirm, model-edge, oline-whisper-fade, primetime-dog, rest-edge, sharp-vs-public, starters-out, travel-lag, wind-under.

Lens lifecycle

59 lenses in the registry · gate as of 2026-08-28

Surfaced mined from graded rows · n ≥ 100 · FDR-corrected 46 lenses
Candidate auto-written formula lens, or yours, or a pundit's calls 9 lenses
Backfill layer A · 2019–25 · every sport no automated stage yet
Grading public, provisional · Feed only 0 lenses
Proven ≥1,000 · Brier ≤ .25 · lift > 0 → Module · on Tonight's why 0 lenses
Decaying drift → demoted, explained · retired at 60 d 0 lenses

Lens index

0 lenses · hourly bake

No distribution yet — no graded samples in this window.

Ranked by trailing-300 lift (lens_stats)

#1 · Prime time under · n=300 · lift +4.7pt (CI -1.4pt to +10.7pt)
#2 · Line value · n=300 · lift +3.9pt (CI -2.3pt to +9.8pt)
#3 · Division dog · n=300 · lift +2.7pt (CI -3.5pt to +8.7pt)
#4 · Rest advantage · n=300 · lift -1.8pt (CI -7.9pt to +4.3pt)
#5 · Ats streak regression · n=300 · lift -6.5pt (CI -12.6pt to -0.3pt)
unranked · Divisional primetime combo · n=145 · lift +3.5pt (CI -5.0pt to +11.7pt)
unranked · Home dog primetime · n=162 · lift +0.5pt (CI -7.6pt to +8.4pt)
unranked · Short week both sides total · n=120 · lift -1.4pt (CI -10.6pt to +7.6pt)
unranked · Qb out · n=109 · lift -5.2pt (CI -14.7pt to +4.5pt)

No lenses in this bake.

The lens_look_through query returned no rows for this filter.

Discovery · find a way of seeing

The same discovery surface as the Bench library: search, facets, "for your model", trending, by record.

ATS spread break-even at -110 is 52.4%; every rate below names its graded n.

showing 0 of 0 · source as-of unavailable

Ranked by ATS hit rate

lens_look_through · n=0 graded lenses matching current facets · source as-of unavailable

No graded hit rates yet

lens_look_through has no lens row with both a decided sample and an ATS hit rate.

ATS hit-rate board

lens_look_through · n=0 graded lenses · source as-of unavailable

No graded hit rates yet

lens_look_through has no lens row with both a decided sample and an ATS hit rate.

Sample size vs lift

lens_look_through · n=0 lift rows · source as-of unavailable

No graded lift rows yet

lens_look_through has no graded lens row with a lift value.

No lens matches the server filters

The lens_look_through query returned no row for the current search/gate filters.

States

Anon

Atlas + split-game roundtable + index; Call it requires sign-in; Ask 3/day

this viewer: signed out — the Asks spent today are not in this page's payload, so no remaining-Ask count is claimed

Trial / paid

every game's roundtable, unlimited Ask, pundits, Mine, arena

not this viewer: signed out — the tier is not in this page's payload, so no tier is claimed

Nothing baked

the next bake time with its countdown, plus the last bake for this matchup if any

0 of 0 lenses carry a take in this bake · last bake hourly bake pending

Decaying

index row shows the drift arrow plus the demotion note with its trailing rate

0 of 0 lenses are gated DECAYING in this bake

Grading

provisional record in grey with n and the 1,000 target

0 of 0 lenses are gated GRADING in this bake

Ask failed

SharkAI names the rows it could not read; never an invented answer

the Ask read returned 26 baked answersfor NE @ SEA