Angles · look-through
Line Value
as of Oct 18, 11:27 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready52.6%
n=793
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready53.7%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
52.6% · n=793
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready55.2%
n=413
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready49.0%
n=351
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready56.3%
n=32
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Line Value”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (52.6% · n=793).
Famous call: BUF @ LV — spread (52.9%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 813
- Hit · Brier
- 53.1% · 0.249
- Lift vs break-even
- +0.7 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.1
- By regime
- early 55.2% · late 49.0% · playoffs 56.3%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 55.2% | 413 |
| 10-18 | 49.0% | 351 |
| playoffs | 56.3% | 32 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=793 · as of Oct 18, 11:27 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| SEA @ DEN | spread | 52.7% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | spread | 52.8% | miss |
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| NO @ NYG | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| LAC @ KC | spread | 52.9% | miss |
| HOU @ JAX | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| CHI @ ATL | spread | 52.7% | miss |
| CAR @ PHI | spread | 52.8% | miss |
| BUF @ LV | spread | 52.9% | hit |
Scoreboard
53.1%
n=821 · #4 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
52.7%
n=300 · #5 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ NO | spread · home | 100% | spreadClose |
| NYG @ HOU | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| NE @ CHI | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| GB @ DET | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| IND @ MIN | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| LA @ LV | spread · home | 100% | spreadClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| WAS @ SF | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| DEN @ ARI | spread · home | 100% | spreadClose |