Brandon Aubrey

"ESPN FantasyAug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETMultiple AuthorsEach year, at the conclusion of the ESPN Fantasy Football Marathon, ESPN Fantasy analysts and other ESPN personalities get together to conduct a mock draft.This year's 10-team PPR draft featured the following participants (in order of first-round selection): Adam Schefter, Eric Moody, Mike Clay, Liz Loza, Field Yates, Joe Fortenbaugh, Daniel Dopp, Keiana Martin, Dan Graziano and Tyler Fulghum.Early draft action saw running backs selected with 13 of the first 20 picks, which led to value at wide receiver. Though two tight ends went in the top 25, the first QB didn't go until Pick 40 and only three signal-callers were off the board entering Round 7.Below are the round-by-round picks, or skip directly to each team's full roster.Want to watch the draft play out for yourself? Check out the simulcast replay on ESPN's YouTube ChannelWant to do your own practice draft? Check out the Mock Draft Lobby.Round 11. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (RB1) -- Schefter 2. Bijan Robinson, ATL (RB2) -- Moody 3. Ja'Marr Chase, CIN (WR1) -- Clay 4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (WR2) -- Loza 5. Puka Nacua, LAR (WR3) -- Yates 6. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (WR4) -- Fortenbaugh 7. James Cook III, BUF (RB3) -- Dopp 8. Christian McCaffrey, SF (RB4) -- Martin 9. CeeDee Lamb, DAL (WR5) -- Graziano 10. Jonathan Taylor, IND (RB5) -- FulghumRound 211. Kenneth Walker III, KC (RB6) -- Fulghum 12. De'Von Achane, MIA (RB7) -- Graziano 13. Ashton Jeanty, LV (RB8) -- Martin 14. Justin Jefferson, MIN (WR6) -- Dopp 15. Drake London, ATL (WR7) -- Fortenbaugh 16. Derrick Henry, BAL (RB9) -- Yates 17. Omarion Hampton, LAC (RB10) -- Loza 18. Jeremiyah Love, ARI (RB11) -- Clay 19. Saquon Barkley, PHI (RB12) -- Moody 20. Chase Brown, CIN (RB13) -- SchefterRound 321. A.J. Brown, NE (WR8) -- Schefter 22. Malik Nabers, NYG (WR9) -- Moody 23. Rashee Rice, KC (WR10) -- Clay 24. Brock Bowers, LV (TE1) -- Loza 25. Trey McBride, ARI (TE2) -- Yates 26. Nico Collins, HOU (WR11) -- Fortenbaugh 27. Chris Olave, NO (WR12) -- Dopp 28. George Pickens, DAL (WR13) -- Martin 29. Breece Hall, NYJ (RB14) -- Graziano 30. Garrett Wilson, NYJ (WR14) -- FulghumRound 431. Colston Loveland, CHI (TE3) -- Fulghum 32. DeVonta Smith, PHI (WR15) -- Graziano 33. Emeka Egbuka, TB (WR16) -- Martin 34. Ladd McConkey, LAC (WR17) -- Dopp 35. Javonte Williams, DAL (RB15) -- Fortenbaugh 36. Josh Jacobs, GB (RB16) -- Yates 37. Travis Etienne Jr., NO (RB17) -- Loza 38. Quinshon Judkins, CLE (RB18) -- Clay 39. Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (WR18) -- Moody 40. Josh Allen, BUF (QB1) -- SchefterRound 541. Zay Flowers, BAL (WR19) -- Schefter 42. Tyler Warren, IND (TE4) -- Moody 43. Cam Skattebo, NYG (RB19) -- Clay 44. Kyren Williams, LAR (RB20) -- Loza 45. Terry McLaurin, WSH (WR20) -- Yates 46. D'Andre Swift, CHI (RB21) -- Fortenbaugh 47. David Montgomery, HOU (RB22) -- Dopp 48. Tee Higgins, CIN (WR21) -- Martin 49. Bucky Irving, TB (RB23) -- Graziano 50. Jayden Daniels, WSH (QB2) -- FulghumRound 651. Jaylen Waddle, DEN (WR22) -- Fulghum 52. Jameson Williams, DET (WR23) -- Graziano 53. Harold Fannin Jr., CLE (TE5) -- Martin 54. Jadarian Price, SEA (RB24) -- Dopp 55. Lamar Jackson, BAL (QB3) -- Fortenbaugh 56. Davante Adams, LAR (WR24) -- Yates 57. DJ Moore, BUF (WR25) -- Loza 58. Rome Odunze, CHI (WR26) -- Clay 59. Luther Burden III, CHI (WR27) -- Moody 60. Parker Washington, JAX (WR28) -- SchefterRound 761. Bhayshul Tuten, JAX (RB25) -- Schefter 62. Drake Maye, NE (QB4) -- Moody 63. Kyle Pitts Sr., ATL (TE6) -- Clay 64. Carnell Tate, TEN (WR29) -- Loza 65. Jaxson Dart, NYG (QB5) -- Yates 66. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (RB26) -- Fortenbaugh 67. George Kittle, SF (TE7) -- Dopp 68. Jalen Hurts, PHI (QB6) -- Martin 69. Tucker Kraft, GB (TE8) -- Graziano 70. Mike Evans, SF (WR30) -- FulghumRound 871. TreVeyon Henderson, NE (RB27) -- Fulghum 72. Joe Burrow, CIN (QB7) -- Graziano 73. Jonathon Brooks, CAR (RB28) -- Martin 74. Michael Pittman Jr., PIT (WR31) -- Dopp 75. Christian Watson, GB (WR32) -- Fortenbaugh 76. Wan'Dale Robinson, TEN (WR33) -- Yates 77. Trevor Lawrence, JAX (QB8) -- Loza 78. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI (WR34) -- Clay 79. Jakobi Meyers, JAX (WR35) -- Moody 80. Sam LaPorta, DET (TE9) -- SchefterRound 981. Blake Corum, LAR (RB29) -- Schefter 82. Kenny Gainwell, TB (RB30) -- Moody 83. Courtland Sutton, DEN (WR36) -- Clay 84. Matthew Golden, GB (WR37) -- Loza 85. Michael Wilson, ARI (WR38) -- Yates 86. Jayden Reed, GB (WR39) -- Fortenbaugh 87. Alec Pierce, IND (WR40) -- Dopp 88. Jordan Addison, MIN (WR41) -- Martin 89. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (WR42) -- Graziano 90. DK Metcalf, PIT (WR43) -- FulghumRound 1091. RJ Harvey, DEN (RB31) -- Fulghum 92. Josh Downs, IND (WR44) -- Graziano 93. Tony Pollard, TEN (RB32) -- Martin 94. Justin Herbert, LAC (QB9) -- Dopp 95. Rico Dowdle, PIT (RB33) -- Fortenbaugh 96. Jaylen Warren, PIT (RB34) -- Yates 97. Kyle Monangai, CHI (RB35) -- Loza 98. Dak Prescott, DAL (QB10) -- Clay 99. Chris Godwin Jr., TB (WR45) -- Moody 100. Brandon Aubrey, DAL (K1) -- SchefterRound 11101. Houston Texans DST (D/ST1) -- Schefter 102. Rachaad White, WSH (RB36) -- Moody 103. Bo Nix, DEN (QB11) -- Clay 104. Aaron Jones Sr., MIN (RB37) -- Loza 105. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WSH (RB38) -- Yates 106. Dallas Goedert, PHI (TE10) -- Fortenbaugh 107. Xavier Worthy, KC (WR46) -- Dopp 108. Isaiah Likely, NYG (TE11) -- Martin 109. Jordan Mason, MIN (RB39) -- Graziano 110. Caleb Williams, CHI (QB12) -- FulghumRound 12111. Quentin Johnston, LAC (WR47) -- Fulghum 112. J.K. Dobbins, DEN (RB40) -- Graziano 113. Denver Broncos DST (D/ST2) -- Martin 114. Chuba Hubbard, CAR (RB41) -- Dopp 115. Pittsburgh Steelers DST (D/ST3) -- Fortenbaugh 116. De'Zhaun Stribling, SF (WR48) -- Yates 117. Brock Purdy, SF (QB13) -- Loza 118. Travis Hunter, JAX (WR49) -- Clay 119. Makai Lemon, PHI (WR50) -- Moody 120. Patrick Mahomes, KC (QB14) -- SchefterRound 13121. Dalton Kincaid, BUF (TE12) -- Schefter 122. Woody Marks, HOU (RB42) -- Moody 123. Matthew Stafford, LAR (QB15) -- Clay 124. Tyler Allgeier, ARI (RB43) -- Loza 125. Stefon Diggs, WSH (WR51) -- Yates 126. Kyler Murray, MIN (QB16) -- Fortenbaugh 127. Tyler Shough, NO (QB17) -- Dopp 128. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF (WR52) -- Martin 129. Chris Rodriguez Jr., JAX (RB44) -- Graziano 130. Jonah Coleman, DEN (RB45) -- FulghumRound 14131. Los Angeles Rams DST (D/ST4) -- Fulghum 132. Jake Ferguson, DAL (TE13) -- Graziano 133. Travis Kelce, KC (TE14) -- Martin 134. Seattle Seahawks DST (D/ST5) -- Dopp 135. Keaton Mitchell, LAC (RB46) -- Fortenbaugh 136. Rashid Shaheed, SEA (WR53) -- Yates 137. KC Concepcion, CLE (WR54) -- Loza 138. Zach Charbonnet, SEA (RB47) -- Clay 139. Jalen Coker, CAR (WR55) -- Moody 140. Jalen McMillan, TB (WR56) -- SchefterRound 15141. Mike Washington Jr., LV (RB48) -- Schefter 142. Baltimore Ravens DST (D/ST6) -- Moody 143. Philadelphia Eagles DST (D/ST7) -- Clay 144. New England Patriots DST (D/ST8) -- Loza 145. Cleveland Browns DST (D/ST9) -- Yates 146. Cameron Dicker, LAC (K2) -- Fortenbaugh 147. Terrance Ferguson, LAR (TE15) -- Dopp 148. Tre Tucker, LV (WR57) -- Martin 149. Los Angeles Chargers DST (D/ST10) -- Graziano 150. Juwan Johnson, NO (TE16) -- FulghumRound 16 151. Cam Little, JAX (K3) -- Fulghum 152. Will Reichard, MIN (K4) -- Graziano 153. Harrison Mevis, LAR (K5) -- Martin 154. Jake Bates, DET (K6) -- Dopp 155. T.J. Hockenson, MIN (TE17) -- Fortenbaugh 156. Jason Myers, SEA (K7) -- Yates 157. Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU (K8) -- Loza 158. Eddy Pineiro, SF (K9) -- Clay 159. Tyler Loop, BAL (K10) -- Moody 160. Jordyn Tyson, NO (WR58) -- SchefterTeam rosters are presented in first-round pick order. Pick and Bye weeks are indicated in parentheses in this manner: (Round.Pick | Bye)Team SchefterQB1 Josh Allen, BUF (Pick: 4.10 | Bye: 7) QB2 Patrick Mahomes, KC (Pick: 12.10 | Bye: 5) RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Pick: 1.1 | Bye: 6) RB2 Chase Brown, CIN (Pick: 2.10 | Bye: 6) RB3 Bhayshul Tuten, JAX (Pick: 7.1 | Bye: 7) RB4 Blake Corum, LAR (Pick: 9.1 | Bye: 11) RB5 Mike Washington Jr., LV (Pick: 15.1 | Bye: 7) WR1 A.J. Brown, NE (Pick: 3.1 | Bye: 11) WR2 Zay Flowers, BAL (Pick: 5.1 | Bye: 13) WR3 Parker Washington, JAX (Pick: 6.10 | Bye: 7) WR4 Jalen McMillan, TB (Pick: 14.10 | Bye: 10) WR5 Jordyn Tyson, NO (Pick: 16.10 | Bye: 8) TE1 Sam LaPorta, DET (Pick: 8.10 | Bye: 6) TE2 Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Pick: 13.1 | Bye: 7) K1 Brandon Aubrey, DAL (Pick: 10.10 | Bye: 14) D/ST1 Houston Texans DST (Pick: 11.1 | Bye: 8)Team MoodyQB1 Drake Maye, NE (Pick: 7.2 | Bye: 11) RB1 Bijan Robinson, ATL (Pick: 1.2 | Bye: 11) RB2 Saquon Barkley, PHI (Pick: 2.9 | Bye: 10) RB3 Kenny Gainwell, TB (Pick: 9.2 | Bye: 10) RB4 Rachaad White, WSH (Pick: 11.2 | Bye: 7) RB5 Woody Marks, HOU (Pick: 13.2 | Bye: 8) WR1 Malik Nabers, NYG (Pick: 3.2 | Bye: 8) WR2 Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (Pick: 4.9 | Bye: 5) WR3 Luther Burden III, CHI (Pick: 6.9 | Bye: 10) WR4 Jakobi Meyers, JAX (Pick: 8.9 | Bye: 7) WR5 Chris Godwin Jr., TB (Pick: 10.9 | Bye: 10) WR6 Makai Lemon, PHI (Pick: 12.9 | Bye: 10) WR7 Jalen Coker, CAR (Pick: 14.9 | Bye: 5) TE1 Tyler Warren, IND (Pick: 5.2 | Bye: 13) K1 Tyler Loop, BAL (Pick: 16.9 | Bye: 13) D/ST1 Baltimore Ravens DST (Pick: 15.2 | Bye: 13)Team ClayQB1 Dak Prescott, DAL (Pick: 10.8 | Bye: 14) QB2 Bo Nix, DEN (Pick: 11.3 | Bye: 10) QB3 Matthew Stafford, LAR (Pick: 13.3 | Bye: 11) RB1 Jeremiyah Love, ARI (Pick: 2.8 | Bye: 14) RB2 Quinshon Judkins, CLE (Pick: 4.8 | Bye: 11) RB3 Cam Skattebo, NYG (Pick: 5.3 | Bye: 8) RB4 Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Pick: 14.8 | Bye: 11) WR1 Ja'Marr Chase, CIN (Pick: 1.3 | Bye: 6) WR2 Rashee Rice, KC (Pick: 3.3 | Bye: 5) WR3 Rome Odunze, CHI (Pick: 6.8 | Bye: 10) WR4 Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI (Pick: 8.8 | Bye: 14) WR5 Courtland Sutton, DEN (Pick: 9.3 | Bye: 10) WR6 Travis Hunter, JAX (Pick: 12.8 | Bye: 7) TE1 Kyle Pitts Sr., ATL (Pick: 7.3 | Bye: 11) K1 Eddy Pineiro, SF (Pick: 16.8 | Bye: 8) D/ST1 Philadelphia Eagles DST (Pick: 15.3 | Bye: 10)Team LozaQB1 Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Pick: 8.7 | Bye: 7) QB2 Brock Purdy, SF (Pick: 12.7 | Bye: 8) RB1 Omarion Hampton, LAC (Pick: 2.7 | Bye: 7) RB2 Travis Etienne Jr., NO (Pick: 4.7 | Bye: 8) RB3 Kyren Williams, LAR (Pick: 5.4 | Bye: 11) RB4 Kyle Monangai, CHI (Pick: 10.7 | Bye: 10) RB5 Aaron Jones Sr., MIN (Pick: 11.4 | Bye: 6) RB6 Tyler Allgeier, ARI (Pick: 13.4 | Bye: 14) WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Pick: 1.4 | Bye: 11) WR2 DJ Moore, BUF (Pick: 6.7 | Bye: 7) WR3 Carnell Tate, TEN (Pick: 7.4 | Bye: 9) WR4 Matthew Golden, GB (Pick: 9.4 | Bye: 11) WR5 KC Concepcion, CLE (Pick: 14.7 | Bye: 11) TE1 Brock Bowers, LV (Pick: 3.4 | Bye: 7) K1 Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU (Pick: 16.7 | Bye: 8) D/ST1 New England Patriots DST (Pick: 15.4 | Bye: 11)Team YatesQB1 Jaxson Dart, NYG (Pick: 7.5 | Bye: 8) RB1 Derrick Henry, BAL (Pick: 2.6 | Bye: 13) RB2 Josh Jacobs, GB (Pick: 4.6 | Bye: 11) RB3 Jaylen Warren, PIT (Pick: 10.6 | Bye: 9) RB4 Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WSH (Pick: 11.5 | Bye: 7) WR1 Puka Nacua, LAR (Pick: 1.5 | Bye: 11) WR2 Terry McLaurin, WSH (Pick: 5.5 | Bye: 7) WR3 Davante Adams, LAR (Pick: 6.6 | Bye: 11) WR4 Wan'Dale Robinson, TEN (Pick: 8.6 | Bye: 9) WR5 Michael Wilson, ARI (Pick: 9.5 | Bye: 14) WR6 De'Zhaun Stribling, SF (Pick: 12.6 | Bye: 8) WR7 Stefon Diggs, WSH (Pick: 13.5 | Bye: 7) WR8 Rashid Shaheed, SEA (Pick: 14.6 | Bye: 11) TE1 Trey McBride, ARI (Pick: 3.5 | Bye: 14) K1 Jason Myers, SEA (Pick: 16.6 | Bye: 11) D/ST1 Cleveland Browns DST (Pick: 15.5 | Bye: 11)Team FortenbaughQB1 Lamar Jackson, BAL (Pick: 6.5 | Bye: 13) QB2 Kyler Murray, MIN (Pick: 13.6 | Bye: 6) RB1 Javonte Williams, DAL (Pick: 4.5 | Bye: 14) RB2 D'Andre Swift, CHI (Pick: 5.6 | Bye: 10) RB3 Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Pick: 7.6 | Bye: 11) RB4 Rico Dowdle, PIT (Pick: 10.5 | Bye: 9) RB5 Keaton Mitchell, LAC (Pick: 14.5 | Bye: 7) WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Pick: 1.6 | Bye: 6) WR2 Drake London, ATL (Pick: 2.5 | Bye: 11) WR3 Nico Collins, HOU (Pick: 3.6 | Bye: 8) WR4 Christian Watson, GB (Pick: 8.5 | Bye: 11) WR5 Jayden Reed, GB (Pick: 9.6 | Bye: 11) TE1 Dallas Goedert, PHI (Pick: 11.6 | Bye: 10) TE2 T.J. Hockenson, MIN (Pick: 16.5 | Bye: 6) K1 Cameron Dicker, LAC (Pick: 15.6 | Bye: 7) D/ST1 Pittsburgh Steelers DST (Pick: 12.5 | Bye: 9)Team DoppQB1 Justin Herbert, LAC (Pick: 10.4 | Bye: 7) QB2 Tyler Shough, NO (Pick: 13.7 | Bye: 8) RB1 James Cook III, BUF (Pick: 1.7 | Bye: 7) RB2 David Montgomery, HOU (Pick: 5.7 | Bye: 8) RB3 Jadarian Price, SEA (Pick: 6.4 | Bye: 11) RB4 Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Pick: 12.4 | Bye: 5) WR1 Justin Jefferson, MIN (Pick: 2.4 | Bye: 6) WR2 Chris Olave, NO (Pick: 3.7 | Bye: 8) WR3 Ladd McConkey, LAC (Pick: 4.4 | Bye: 7) WR4 Michael Pittman Jr., PIT (Pick: 8.4 | Bye: 9) WR5 Alec Pierce, IND (Pick: 9.7 | Bye: 13) WR6 Xavier Worthy, KC (Pick: 11.7 | Bye: 5) TE1 George Kittle, SF (Pick: 7.7 | Bye: 8) TE2 Terrance Ferguson, LAR (Pick: 15.7 | Bye: 11) K1 Jake Bates, DET (Pick: 16.4 | Bye: 6) D/ST1 Seattle Seahawks DST (Pick: 14.4 | Bye: 11)Team MartinQB1 Jalen Hurts, PHI (Pick: 7.8 | Bye: 10) RB1 Christian McCaffrey, SF (Pick: 1.8 | Bye: 8) RB2 Ashton Jeanty, LV (Pick: 2.3 | Bye: 7) RB3 Jonathon Brooks, CAR (Pick: 8.3 | Bye: 5) RB4 Tony Pollard, TEN (Pick: 10.3 | Bye: 9) WR1 George Pickens, DAL (Pick: 3.8 | Bye: 14) WR2 Emeka Egbuka, TB (Pick: 4.3 | Bye: 10) WR3 Tee Higgins, CIN (Pick: 5.8 | Bye: 6) WR4 Jordan Addison, MIN (Pick: 9.8 | Bye: 6) WR5 Deebo Samuel Sr., SF (Pick: 13.8 | Bye: 8) WR6 Tre Tucker, LV (Pick: 15.8 | Bye: 7) TE1 Harold Fannin Jr., CLE (Pick: 6.3 | Bye: 11) TE2 Isaiah Likely, NYG (Pick: 11.8 | Bye: 8) TE3 Travis Kelce, KC (Pick: 14.3 | Bye: 5) K1 Harrison Mevis, LAR (Pick: 16.3 | Bye: 11) D/ST1 Denver Broncos DST (Pick: 12.3 | Bye: 10)Team GrazianoQB1 Joe Burrow, CIN (Pick: 8.2 | Bye: 6) RB1 De'Von Achane, MIA (Pick: 2.2 | Bye: 6) RB2 Breece Hall, NYJ (Pick: 3.9 | Bye: 13) RB3 Bucky Irving, TB (Pick: 5.9 | Bye: 10) RB4 Jordan Mason, MIN (Pick: 11.9 | Bye: 6) RB5 J.K. Dobbins, DEN (Pick: 12.2 | Bye: 10) RB6 Chris Rodriguez Jr., JAX (Pick: 13.9 | Bye: 7) WR1 CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Pick: 1.9 | Bye: 14) WR2 DeVonta Smith, PHI (Pick: 4.2 | Bye: 10) WR3 Jameson Williams, DET (Pick: 6.2 | Bye: 6) WR4 Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Pick: 9.9 | Bye: 7) WR5 Josh Downs, IND (Pick: 10.2 | Bye: 13) TE1 Tucker Kraft, GB (Pick: 7.9 | Bye: 11) TE2 Jake Ferguson, DAL (Pick: 14.2 | Bye: 14) K1 Will Reichard, MIN (Pick: 16.2 | Bye: 6) D/ST1 Los Angeles Chargers DST (Pick: 15.9 | Bye: 7)Team FulghumQB1 Jayden Daniels, WSH (Pick: 5.10 | Bye: 7) QB2 Caleb Williams, CHI (Pick: 11.10 | Bye: 10) RB1 Jonathan Taylor, IND (Pick: 1.10 | Bye: 13) RB2 Kenneth Walker III, KC (Pick: 2.1 | Bye: 5) RB3 TreVeyon Henderson, NE (Pick: 8.1 | Bye: 11) RB4 RJ Harvey, DEN (Pick: 10.1 | Bye: 10) RB5 Jonah Coleman, DEN (Pick: 13.10 | Bye: 10) WR1 Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Pick: 3.10 | Bye: 13) WR2 Jaylen Waddle, DEN (Pick: 6.1 | Bye: 10) WR3 Mike Evans, SF (Pick: 7.10 | Bye: 8) WR4 DK Metcalf, PIT (Pick: 9.10 | Bye: 9) WR5 Quentin Johnston, LAC (Pick: 12.1 | Bye: 7) TE1 Colston Loveland, CHI (Pick: 4.1 | Bye: 10) TE2 Juwan Johnson, NO (Pick: 15.10 | Bye: 8) K1 Cam Little, JAX (Pick: 16.1 | Bye: 7) D/ST1 Los Angeles Rams DST (Pick: 14.1 | Bye: 11)"

"Bill BarnwellAug 24, 2026, 06:30 AM ETCloseBill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X's and O's, offseason transactions and so much more. He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland.Multiple AuthorsEven by NFL standards, 2025 was a topsy-turvy season. Seven teams saw their records improve or decline by at least six wins, the most in any campaign since 2008. And though that's a little more feasible in a 17-game season than it was in the 16-game era, the 10-game improvement by the Patriots, who improved from 4-13 to 14-3, was the largest by any team since 1999, when the Colts pulled that off in Peyton Manning's second season.Teams hoping to emulate the Patriots might find a difficult path forward. The Pats made a major coaching upgrade by hiring Mike Vrabel, who had been one of the league's best coaches during his time with the Titans before losing a power struggle in Nashville. New England relied as heavily on free agency as any team in recent memory, with 13 of its 25 most-used players on offense and defense acquired as free agents over the previous two offseasons. And the Patriots notably had what was one of the easiest schedules in league history, facing just two teams that posted a winning record all season.The Patriots' path toward the Super Bowl was off my radar, and they weren't included in my annual look at teams most likely to improve at this time last year. The other six teams to jump by at least six wins, though, are all featured in one of the two columns you'll see this week. Today, we start on the rosy side and focus on the teams that are most likely to improve in 2026. And on Tuesday, sadly, we'll talk about the ones that are most likely to decline.Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show'Last year's column featured the Raiders, who declined by a game, and the Giants, who improved by one win. The other three teams were much bigger successes. The Bears rode the Ben Johnson effect and a flood of takeaways on defense to an 11-6 mark after going from 5-11 in 2024. The 49ers jumped from 6-11 to 12-5. And the Jaguars made the biggest leap, going from 4-13 to 13-4 in Liam Coen's first season at the helm. All three teams made the playoffs after finishing well below .500 the previous season.Since 2017, this annual column has gone 35-8 (.813) in picking teams to improve on the previous season's record. The average team has gotten 3½ games better after adjusting for the 17-game schedule. And if we include our picks for teams that will decline, the back-to-back columns are a combined 69-17 (.802) in accuracy, while going 50-36 (.581) against the preseason over-under totals preserved on Pro-Football-Reference.com.So, recent history suggests four of the five teams listed in this year's column should get better. There's a fun mix of teams that just took a step back in 2025 and long-frustrating organizations that might exceed expectations in 2026. Let's start with the headliners from last year's decline column who might be the most obvious pick of the bunch ...Note: Schedule strength is via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).Jump to: BAL | DET | KC | NYG | NYJKansas City ChiefsRecord in 2025: 6-11 (1-9 in games decided by seven or fewer points) Point differential in 2025: plus-34 Projected strength of schedule: 14th easiestYou could have suspected things would start here. Twelve months ago, the Chiefs were coming off a 15-2 regular season and led my column on teams most likely to decline in 2025. Andy Reid's squad had gone 10-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer in 2024, an NFL record. And though anyone who has read this column annually is already familiar with the idea that teams struggle to win a significant proportion of their close games year after year, I wouldn't have blamed anyone who believed the Chiefs were an outlier.The 10-0 mark took Patrick Mahomes to 43-17 in one-score contests. We've seen other generational quarterbacks -- with Tom Brady as a notable example -- win more of their one-score games than you might expect. It would have been foolish to count on the Chiefs to win every one of their one-score games again, but expecting Mahomes and the Chiefs to fall to even .500 in close games also seemed to be a bad bet.Then, the Chiefs started their 2025 season with a six-point loss to the Chargers. Kansas City lost by three to the Eagles in Week 2. The Jags' late charge led to a Chiefs loss in Week 5. They were winning big, but when things were close, a team that had always found a way to win the close ones in 2024 found ways to lose them in 2025. The Chiefs went from 10-0 to 1-9 in one-score games between 2024 and 2025, including a 1-7 record with Mahomes under center before the star quarterback tore his left ACL.As you probably guessed, the 18-game swing between 2024 and 2025 is the biggest of one-score victories in league history. The previous record was 13 games by the 2022-23 Vikings, who fell from 9-0 to 4-8 in one-score games. Minnesota then followed with an 8-1 mark in 2024 before regressing to the mean and landing at 4-3 in 2025.The Vikings were cycling through quarterbacks for most of that time, though, and the Chiefs had Mahomes for most of last season. Most of the stars who helped the Chiefs to three consecutive Super Bowl appearances were back in 2025, too. And though the Chiefs were down to third-stringers at QB and left tackle by the end of the season, they were about average in terms of season-long health on offense and even had the league's healthiest defense, per the FTN Football Almanac's adjusted games lost metric.Did the Chiefs just play significantly worse? By advanced metrics, the answer to that question is ... not really. The 2024 Chiefs finished the regular season eighth in DVOA, pointing to a good team that had remarkable luck in one-score games. And though the 2025 Chiefs understandably faded after Mahomes gave way to Gardner Minshew II and Chris Oladokun at quarterback, they ranked eighth in DVOA through the game against the Chargers in Week 15, when Mahomes suffered his ACL injury.The 2024 Chiefs outscored their opponents by 59 points, or roughly 3.5 points per game. And if we don't include the post-Mahomes games, the 2025 Chiefs outscored their opponents by 60 points, which is just under 4.3 points per game. Point differential suggests those teams should roughly expect to get about the same number of wins over a full season with an average amount of luck and timing.To put that into context over 17 games, let's look at teams that outscored their opponents by a margin between three and five points per game in a season. Since 1990, 117 teams have fit into that window. The best record produced by any of those teams is 15-2, which matches the Chiefs' 2024 record. The Chiefs were 6-8 with Mahomes in the lineup, and that would have been a .428 winning percentage over a full season. That would be the worst winning percentage produced by any of those three-to-five-point-differential teams over a full campaign. In other words, the 2024 Chiefs got the best recorded results out of being a pretty good team since 1990, and the 2025 Chiefs -- even with Mahomes -- were getting the worst results of any team at that level in recent history before his injury.Even if the Chiefs produce average results with that sort of point differential in 2026, they should be back in the postseason. Are there reasons to be concerned that they won't match up to that underlying level of play? Maybe. To start, Mahomes is returning from the torn ACL. Though the soon-to-be 31-year-old quarterback is still in contention to start the season on the active roster, it's difficult to imagine that he won't feel some sort of disruption or struggle coming back from his first significant injury as a pro. At the very least, Mahomes' legendary ability to scramble and extend plays might be limited early in 2026.play1:15Why Mad Dog is expecting a big year out of Patrick MahomesThe defense has also lost key players in the secondary, with Trent McDuffie dealt to the Rams, Jaylen Watson joining the Rams in free agency and starting safety Bryan Cook inking a deal with the Bengals. The Chiefs used a top-10 pick on cornerback Mansoor Delane and took shots on L'Jarius Sneed and Kader Kohou in free agency, but it's tough to imagine that the secondary will be as stout as it was during those runs to the Super Bowl.On the other hand, the Chiefs have made meaningful upgrades elsewhere. Kenneth Walker III should offer a jolt of electricity to a run game that had grown timid and stale over the past couple of seasons, ranking last in explosive play rate. The front four is suddenly much deeper after the Chiefs signed Khyiris Tonga and used their top two picks on Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas. A full season from Josh Simmons, who was impressive at left tackle when available as a rookie, would be a massive upgrade at a spot that has topped out at average and often come up short over the past three years.Amid stiff competition in the AFC West, the Chiefs won't get the sort of schedule relief that most teams receive by dropping from first to third in their division. The division drew a rough slate of out-of-division opponents in 2026, facing the AFC East and NFC West, ensuring that the Chiefs will get their annual regular-season encounter with the Bills and matchups against the Rams and Seahawks. The Chiefs' third-place game within the conference drew the Bengals. All four of those games are on the road. Their schedule is roughly league average, per ESPN's FPI.I don't think there will be much pushback against the idea that the Chiefs will improve in 2026. How much they improve, though, might be the more meaningful discussion. And unless we see a dramatically different underlying level of play from this team, so much of that might come down to those one-score games and how things pan out in the final minutes of close contests. Winning half of such games would get the Chiefs back into the playoffs. And winning about 65% of the time -- which is Mahomes' new career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer -- might push Kansas City back atop the AFC West.Detroit LionsRecord in 2025: 9-8 (2-5 in games decided by seven or fewer points) Point differential in 2025: plus-68 Projected strength of schedule: Second easiestHere's a second powerhouse that was on our list of teams likely to decline and fell further than anybody could have expected last season. The Lions dropped from 7-2 in one-score games in 2024 to 2-5 last season. Their story isn't quite as clear-cut as that of the Chiefs, but the issues with Dan Campbell's team in 2025 start there.The losses were often dramatic and painful. The Lions went 0-for-5 on fourth down in a midseason game against the Eagles, turning six trips inside Philly territory into just nine points. What appeared to be a miraculous last-second win against the Steelers was overturned by an offensive pass interference penalty on Amon-Ra St. Brown. And though it wasn't a one-score game, the Lions failed to recover all five fumbles in a 23-10 loss to the Vikings, turning the ball over six times on a day when winning quarterback Max Brosmer produced 3 net passing yards.Failing to fall on fumbles was a subtle problem for the Lions. They recovered just under 29% of the fumbles on offense and defense last season, which was the worst mark in the league and just the fifth time since 1990 that any team has failed to recover at least 30% of fumbles in a season.If we expand that to a 35% rate to build a larger sample, those teams were snakebit for only a single season. Those same teams recovered 51.7% of fumbles in their games the following year. Their turnover margin improved by 14 takeaways per 17 games. And, as a result, they won an average of 1.9 more contests (again, per 17 games). The Lions should come up with loose footballs more often in 2026.Unlike the Chiefs, the Lions really were ripped to shreds by injuries in 2025. Detroit was last in adjusted games lost on defense, where the only starters who suited up for all 17 games were Derrick Barnes, Jack Campbell, Aidan Hutchinson and DJ Reader. Two of those four full-season starters were first-team All-Pros -- which is a pretty good ratio. The offense was healthier, but even there, Detroit was roughly in the middle of the injury pack.The Lions are already facing injury concerns this season. New center Cade Mays, who was brought in to replace the released Graham Glasgow, is out for eight to 10 weeks because of a wrist injury. Power back Isiah Pacheco was going to step in for David Montgomery, but he has been slowed by a knee injury.The situation in the secondary is more ominous. Starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph formed the league's best duo in 2024, but both suffered serious injuries in 2025, with Branch tearing his Achilles and Joseph dealing with a still-murky knee issue. Both are on the physically unable to perform list. And cornerback Terrion Arnold, who was projected to start in 2026, was released after being charged with armed robbery and kidnapping.Without those three starters, the secondary looks to be one of the worst in the NFL on paper. D.J. Reed is a solid starter, but the Lions will be relying on veteran players on team-friendly deals, such as Rock Ya-Sin, Chuck Clark, Christian Izien and Roger McCreary, to compete for meaningful snaps. They'll be trying to hold up behind a line that will be missing veteran Al-Quadin Muhammad, who racked up 11 sacks and 20 knockdowns in a career season before leaving on a one-year deal to join the Buccaneers.The Lions don't have the veteran depth they enjoyed in 2023 and 2024, in part because their young stars have commanded more lucrative contracts. In 2023, the Lions still had Hutchinson, St. Brown, Campbell, Penei Sewell, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs all on rookie deals. Their six young stars combined to make about $29 million per season on their contracts at that time, allowing general manager Brad Holmes to surround them with veterans, such as Montgomery, Alex Anzalone and Tracy Walker III in supporting roles.Now, those same six players are on contracts that combine to average nearly $173 million per season. Though the Lions can use some restructures to reduce the impact on the salary cap, there's just a significantly larger cash outlay going to those players. Though they all deserve their big extensions, the Lions don't have the same resources to surround those players with veteran starters.Montgomery and Anzalone left this offseason, and they were joined by Muhammad, Taylor Decker, Glasgow and Amik Robertson. The Lions had to seek free agents who would sign for less. And though Holmes could sacrifice draft capital to supplement the active roster, the Lions desperately need those selections to surround their core with cost-controlled talent in the years to come.play1:25Rapoport tells McAfee about the 'renewed focus' he has noticed with the LionsHaving expensive stars is a good problem, but it's one that could cap the Lions' ceiling as they try to get back to the top of the NFC. What should make life easier in 2026, though, is the conference's easiest schedule. Though the NFC North might be a slugfest, the Lions get four games against the NFC South, and that makes anyone's life easier. Everyone else in the division gets a game against a playoff team from the NFC West, but the Lions get to face the Cardinals. Detroit still has a handful of games against high-end competition such as the Bills and Packers, but per FPI's projection, it gets six games against the eight worst teams in the league.And, of course, the Lions don't have to do much to contend in the NFC. They still managed a winning record last season. Their margin for error is narrower given the lack of depth on the roster, and the injuries on offense and defense are already concerning, but the Lions should push their way back into the postseason after an unexpected year off.New York GiantsRecord in 2025: 4-13 (1-6 in games decided by seven or fewer points) Point differential in 2025: minus-58 Projected strength of schedule: Eighth toughestThe Giants did not have Super Bowl aspirations heading into 2025. The goal was a competitive season in what looked to be a make-or-break year for Brian Daboll after the Giants went 3-14 in 2024. There were positive signs from their rookie class, but the Giants improved by only one game -- and even that required a two-game winning streak to finish the season.I'd argue that the Giants quietly had a more competitive season, even if Daboll wasn't around to see the end of it. Yes, New York finished 4-13, but its Pythagorean Expectation suggests that Big Blue performed at a 7.1 win rate. Accounting for the 17-game schedule, the Giants are one of only 13 teams since 1990 to finish three-plus wins short of their expected win total by point differential, joining last season's Chiefs on that list.Even if we expand the sample to include teams with a 2½-win gap, we're still looking at just 23 teams between 1990 and 2025. Those teams improved by an average of three wins per 17 games the following season. Teams that underperform their point differential typically play up to that level with another shot the following year.Coming up short of the point differential also usually comes with a subpar record in one-score games, and the Giants were 1-6 in those contests a year ago, with their lone victory coming against the Chargers in Week 4. Some games can appear closer than reality, with a late score in garbage time bringing a losing team within one touchdown. But the 2025 Giants suffered some painful losses against winning teams in contests they had a real shot at winning:In Week 2, the Giants' defense blew a 34-30 lead to the Cowboys with 52 seconds left, only for Russell Wilson to hit Malik Nabers for a 48-yard score to take a 37-34 lead back with 25 seconds to go. The Cowboys picked up 21 yards and set up Brandon Aubrey for a 64-yard field goal to tie the score, then won with four seconds remaining in overtime on another Aubrey kick.Five weeks later, the Giants were up 26-8 on the Broncos with 10:08 left in the fourth quarter, but Bo Nix and Denver stormed back and scored three touchdowns in five minutes. A Jaxson Dart touchdown run gave the Giants a 32-30 lead with 37 seconds to go, but backup kicker Jude McAtamney missed the extra point attempt, and Nix hit 29- and 22-yard completions to set up a winning field goal for the Broncos.In Week 10, the Giants kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line to go up 20-10 on the Bears with 10:21 left, turning down a too many men on the field penalty that would have brought the ball even closer to the goal line. The Bears scored a touchdown to get within one score, and after a 27-yard punt by Jamie Gillan, they took over at midfield and scored another to take a 24-20 lead inside the two-minute warning.The following week, a Jameis Winston plunge put the Giants up 21-20 with 7:22 to go against the Packers. Green Bay scored on the ensuing drive to make it 27-21, and though Winston got the Giants in the red zone on the ensuing possession, an interception with 44 seconds remaining essentially ended the contest.Want another fourth-quarter blown lead? The Giants led the Lions 27-17 with 12:16 to go after Winston threw a touchdown pass to Gunner Olszewski. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for a 49-yard touchdown that pulled the Lions within three, and after the Giants failed to score despite having the ball on second-and-goal at the Detroit 2-yard line, a 59-yard field goal by Jake Bates sent the game to overtime. Gibbs scored from 69 yards on the opening play from scrimmage in OT, and the ensuing Giants drive sputtered out.Finally, Ben Sauls -- the team's fourth kicker of the season -- hit a 39-yard field goal to tie the score at 13-13 against the Vikings with 11:06 left. A near-six-minute drive from the Vikings produced a short field goal to take the lead, and Dart's attempt to answer faded at midfield, allowing Max Brosmer to kneel out the clock.That's six losses that could have gone the other way against teams with winning records. The Giants held fourth-quarter leads in five of the six -- and final-minute leads in three. They lost four games where they held a win probability of at least 90% in the fourth quarter. The rest of the league lost just 15 such games combined. The Giants are just the fourth team to lose four of those games in a season, joining the 2013 Buccaneers, 2009 Steelers and ... 2015 Giants, who also got their head coach fired (or forced out), with Tom Coughlin's tenure ending.That 2016 Giants team promoted Ben McAdoo to head coach, invested heavily in free agents and jumped from 6-10 to 11-5 despite not dramatically improving its underlying level of play; the Giants went from being outscored by 1.4 points per game to outscoring teams by 1.6 points per contest. They followed a 3-8 season in one-score games by going 8-3 in them, and though the improvement (and McAdoo) didn't stick in the years that followed, that 11-5 season was the best record the Giants have produced since 2008. The Giants hope that John Harbaugh will offer much-needed stability for a franchise that made the longtime Ravens coach its fifth head coaching hire in 10 years after Coughlin's tenure.The offense is the source of a high ceiling and a low floor. Giants fans are understandably enthused about a core built around Dart, Nabers, running back Cam Skattebo and high-end left tackle Andrew Thomas. The promise of all four on the field at the same time hints at a step forward for an offense that has finished 30th or worse in scoring four times over the past six years.The problem, of course, is counting on them to all be present at the same time. They were on the field for just 60 snaps last season. Skattebo (ankle), Nabers (knee) and Thomas (hamstring) finished the year on injured reserve, while Dart missed time because of a concussion and was repeatedly pulled out of games over concerns about his health. If they're all healthy and live up to expectations, the Giants could take a massive leap forward on offense, which ranked 22nd in 2025. If not, the Giants might not have the depth to deal with absences, especially after they lost several free agents to Daboll's new employers in Tennessee.The defense also underwent substantial changes after finishing 26th in DVOA. Dexter Lawrence II, a cornerstone at defensive tackle, was traded to the Bengals for the 10th pick. Free agent disappointment Bobby Okereke was cut and replaced by Tremaine Edmunds, who endured a similar fate with the Bears. Giants general manager Joe Schoen let cornerback Cor'Dale Flott leave in free agency and replaced him with Greg Newsome II, who struggled with the Browns and Jags last season. And the Giants used their No. 5 pick on hybrid Ohio State defender Arvell Reese, giving them yet another potentially impactful edge rusher to play alongside Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux.Stopping the run was the big problem for the Giants in 2025, when they finished last in yards per carry (5.4), and 31st in explosive play rate (10.9%) and success rate (51.7%) against designed runs, coming within a few steps of winning the bad run defense triple crown. Losing Micah McFadden to a Week 1 injury didn't help, but it's tough to believe that getting him back will single-handedly fix what's wrong on the ground for New York, especially with Lawrence now in Cincinnati. The massive tackle wasn't his usual self last season, when he played through an elbow injury, but the Giants had significant problems stopping the run and tackling at all three levels.Dennard Wilson's defense will be tested to begin the campaign, as the Giants start their season against the Cowboys and Rams before the schedule briefly softens. Over the full season, the Giants project to face the league's eighth-toughest schedule by FPI's algorithm, which could dampen their chances of making it to the postseason. I believe they have a legitimate shot at surprising the league and becoming a last-place team that jumps into the playoffs in 2026, but so much will depend on whether the offensive standouts stay healthy for much (or all) of the year.New York JetsRecord in 2025: 3-14 (3-5 in games decided by seven or fewer points) Point differential in 2025: minus-203 Projected strength of schedule: Sixth easiestLet's stick around in North Jersey, where the 2025 Jets did something that nobody in NFL history had managed before. Despite hiring former starting cornerback Aaron Glenn as the team's head coach, the Jets simply could not catch the football on defense. They went all season without even a single interception, the first time that has ever happened. The Jets went 0-for-503.As if that wasn't enough, the Jets were also unlucky in terms of recovering fumbles, ranking 31st behind the aforementioned Lions by grabbing just 35% of loose balls in their games. On defense, the Jets recovered four of the 14 fumbles they forced. In total, those four turnovers the Jets forced are the fewest for any team since 1934, when the St. Louis Cardinals forced four takeaways all season. Of course, they also played only three games ...With the offense struggling, the Jets finished with a turnover margin of minus-19. The Commanders were the only other team to finish with a double-digit negative turnover margin, and they came in at minus-13. The Jets were on a disastrous island.Whether it's a renewed emphasis on recovering the football, improvements on the personnel side or sheer randomness, history shows that the vast majority of teams in this window improve their turnover margin and their win-loss record the following season. Adjusting for the 17-game season, there have been 34 teams since 1990 to finish with a turnover margin between minus-22 and minus-16 in a given season. The following year, their turnover margin improved by an average of nearly 20 turnovers. Those teams finished with an average turnover margin of plus-1.3. And unsurprisingly, they got much better in the process. They won an average of 2.8 more games the following season. The most recent example would be the 2022 Jaguars, who recovered from the Urban Meyer fiasco in 2021 to go 9-8 and win the division.The Jets winning the AFC East would be a remarkable surprise, and I'm not projecting their season to land there, but it's worth noting that they've made massive roster upgrades this offseason. By the time they lost 42-10 to the Patriots in Week 17, the Jets had already traded star defenders Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner for multiple first-round picks. Their quarterback was Brady Cook. His leading receiver on the day was John Metchie III. The secondary was playing multiple rookies for significant snaps. The Jets weren't tanking, but they weren't exactly expecting to win, either.They began to use those picks this offseason, with four first- or second-round picks joining the roster. They made significant, much-needed investments on the defensive side of the ball, signing Demario Davis at linebacker, acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and replenishing the team's defensive line. T'Vondre Sweat gave the Jets an underrated nose tackle, while Will McDonald IV is now joined by Joseph Ossai, Kingsley Enagbare and second overall pick David Bailey on the edge.I'm also still (cautiously) holding out hope that Geno Smith -- another one of those offseason additions -- can hold up his end of the bargain under center. The Raiders were a schematic and personnel mess on offense last season. They saw only glimpses of Brock Bowers while he dealt with injuries all season. Left tackle Kolton Miller, the team's best lineman, was done by Week 4. Jakobi Meyers was dealt away at midseason. In all, we got one game of Smith with a viable top receiver and a starting-caliber left tackle, and in that game, he went 24 of 34 for 362 yards, a touchdown and an interception (Week 1 win over the Patriots). He never came close to those numbers the rest of the way.And if the surrounding talent was what held Smith back, well, the Jets actually have plenty to work with this season. I placed the Jets 12th in my offensive playmaker rankings, with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall now supported by a pair of first-round picks in receiver Omar Cooper Jr. and tight end Kenyon Sadiq. Smith has two young, promising tackles in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. There's real help here. (Hall is dealing with a strained groin but is expected back for Week 1.)They need to make a difference in the red zone, though. The Jets scored just 4.2 points per red zone trip in 2025, which was the worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, Glenn's defense allowed 5.5 points when offenses were inside the 20, a figure that was trailed by only the Cowboys. While Dallas could at least call on an explosive offense, the Jets dealt with a minus-1.3 point disparity on trips to the end zone by their offense and defense.As you might guess, that was the worst mark in the league. And as you might already be inferring, it doesn't tend to stick. Going back to 2001 now because of data limitations, 44 teams have seen their red zone defense trail their red zone offense by at least one point per possession in a given season. The following year? Those teams restored much of that differential, with the gap falling to minus-0.2 points. Their collective records improved by an average of 2.5 wins per 17 games.This was the worst team in the NFL a year ago by advanced metrics, so setting expectations appropriately is important. It would be truly stunning to see the Jets fly up the AFC charts and compete for a playoff berth, let alone land one. They seem more likely to jump up to five or six wins in 2026, but even that would represent significant improvement.Baltimore RavensRecord in 2025: 8-9 (1-4 in games decided by seven or fewer points) Point differential in 2025: plus-26 Projected strength of schedule: Fifth easiestWe finish up with a Super Bowl contender that saw its season go wrong in the most frustrating fashion. The Ravens started 1-5, hit their bye, won their next five games and made it to Week 18 with a chance to beat the Steelers and win the AFC North. That game saw the teams trade two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but after Lamar Jackson drove the Ravens into position for a 44-yard field goal, Tyler Loop missed a kick that would have won both the game and the division for Baltimore. John Harbaugh was fired after the game, ending his 18-year tenure with the organization.Let's run through the biggest reasons the Ravens disappointed in 2025 and put them into context for what might lead them to improve in 2026.Jackson was sidelined by a hamstring injury. After healthy and dominant seasons in 2023 and 2024, the two-time MVP wasn't the same in 2025. Jackson was off to a great start, posting a 74.8 QBR across his first four starts (fourth in the league), but a hamstring injury sidelined him for a month.While Jackson threw four touchdown passes in a return win over the Dolphins, he didn't look like his usual self over the next month, throwing one touchdown against four picks in the four ensuing contests. And while things settled down over the final three games of the season, Jackson didn't do much as a passer in those contests, attempting just 12, 10 and 18 passes, respectively, against the Bengals, Patriots and Steelers. (He missed a game against the Packers with a back contusion in there, too.)We've seen Jackson injuries derail the Ravens before, with the future Hall of Famer missing the end of both the 2021 and 2022 campaigns. When Jackson has played, though, he has typically been dominant. In fact, 2025 was the first regular season in which Jackson wasn't blowing away the competition over any sort of extended stretch of time. It's reasonable to chalk that up to the aftereffects of the hamstring injury, but it's at least a little concerning.The Ravens also reduced Jackson's workload as a runner. Between 2020 and 2024, Jackson averaged 5.5 designed runs per game, a number which doesn't include scrambles or kneel-downs. In 2025, that dropped to two designed runs per game. It could drop even further in 2026 as the Ravens move Jackson under center more often under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, which will limit Baltimore's ability to run the sort of read concepts that Jackson has excelled in during his career.On the other hand, fewer designed runs might also keep Jackson from getting hit quite as often, which should make it easier for him to play a full season. Jackson is a wizard at getting out of bounds or avoiding big hits at the end of scrambles, but that's tougher on designed runs between the tackles. That trade-off is probably a plus for the Ravens if Jackson actually completes the entire season on the field.The defense collapsed. Again. For the second year in a row, the Ravens struggled with a disastrous performance on defense before correcting things as the season went along. Through their first five games, the Ravens were dead last in points allowed per drive (3.2) and 30th in EPA allowed per play (plus-0.15). Things got a little bit better against the Rams in Week 6, but improvement really only came after their bye, at which point the Ravens jumped to eighth in both points allowed per possession and EPA allowed per play.Health was an issue early in the year at different positions, but the Ravens didn't have star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike for the entirety of that post-bye run after the lineman suffered a season-ending neck injury in September. (They finished as the third-most-injured defense in the league by adjusted games lost, although they were also its fourth-healthiest offense.) And some of the shift was extremely variance-driven, as the Ravens were the league's fourth-worst red zone defense before the bye and its best afterward.The reality, though, is that the Ravens' pass rush simply wasn't good enough. After ranking fourth in sack rate and eighth in pressure rate during Mike Macdonald's final year as defensive coordinator in 2023, the Ravens were 23rd in sack rate and 27th in pressure rate between 2024 and 2025. The organization gave up on Odafe Oweh, trading him to the Chargers for rental safety Alohi Gilman, and it didn't get much out of rookie second-rounder Mike Green, who had 3.5 sacks on 712 snaps in his debut season.Much of Eric DeCosta's offseason was built around fixing those issues. He famously tried to trade two first-round picks for Maxx Crosby before backing out of the deal and signing edge rusher Trey Hendrickson in free agency. Baltimore also signed ageless wonder Calais Campbell for interior help and threw another second-round pick at the problem in Zion Young.The most important addition might be new coach Jesse Minter, who was Macdonald's successor as the defensive coordinator at Michigan. Former coordinator Zach Orr never really seemed to have a reliable handle on what was going wrong in Baltimore, and while the Ravens righted the ship by the end of 2024, things were a mess again early in 2025.play1:47Why Louis Riddick still has faith in Derrick HenryMinter worked wonders with the Chargers, getting more out of cornerbacks such as Tarheeb Still, Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson than anyone could have expected. He revitalized the career of Derwin James Jr., which bodes well for star Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, who is already playing at a high level. Minter also coaxed a great half-season out of Oweh, and if the Ravens can similarly manipulate protections and use exotic pressures to create one-on-ones and unblocked rushers, it'll get the pass rush back on track. I'm optimistic.Bad luck in close games. The Ravens were 1-4 in one-score games, and I just mentioned how the Steelers game came down to a field goal. In Week 1, the Ravens lost to the Bills despite leading 40-25 with the ball and eight minutes to go, owing in part to a crucial Derrick Henry fumble. Another Henry fumble cost the Ravens two weeks later, handing the Lions a short field in the fourth quarter of a game that Baltimore would eventually lose 38-30. Three fourth-quarter trips into the red zone produced only six points in a 27-22 loss to the Steelers. None of these losses represent bad luck, but they're games the Ravens often found a way to pull out during the Jackson era. (He was 26-20 in one-score games as a starter before 2025.)Life will be easier in 2026. The Ravens project to face the league's fifth-easiest schedule, as their season begins with five of the first six contests against teams that FPI expects to post losing records in the Colts, Saints, Titans, Falcons and Browns. Things get much more difficult from that point forward, but if the Ravens do get off to their now-habitual slow start on defense, they should still be able to pull out some victories against overmatched competition.Their ceiling might depend on whether their expensive core of veteran talent -- Jackson, Hendrickson, Madubuike, Roquan Smith, Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey and Zay Flowers -- can stay on the field for the vast majority of the campaign. As long as everyone is available for most of the year, the Ravens should be back on track to compete at the top of the AFC in 2026."

"Mike ClayAug 22, 2026, 07:45 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Multiple AuthorsFantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values, but we all know those special players exist whom we badly want on our squad.Whether it's the young, up-and-coming wide receiver on our favorite team, a sleeper running back no one is talking about or this year's big breakout at tight end, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.This round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day, headlined by those players I have circled on my cheat sheet. Note that I used average draft position (ADP) data from Draft Sharks' terrific Market Index Tool in order to ensure this road map would be useful for as many of you as possible.For a more philosophical look at the fantasy landscape, including strategies for drafting, trading and working waivers in all types of formats, be sure to check out the fantasy football playbook column.Here it is: my personal recipe for a 2026 fantasy football championship in a 12-team league.The coreWhen I'm making my selections, I often ask myself: "Am I drafting this player at his ceiling?" If the answer is "yes," I generally aim for someone with more upside. Of course, all the players available in the first round or so are likely at or near their ceiling, so this is an opportunity to not overthink it and simply take the best available player on the board.Round 1: Best available RB or WRWho I choose in the first round will, of course, primarily depend on where I pick. For the purposes of this exercise, it's (once again) a tricky year to handicap who will be available since six RBs and six WRs are currently coming off the board in the round.If I land a top-two pick, this is an easy call: Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson. I'm also happy to take Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor in the middle of the round or to go wide receiver with the best available among Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson.Don't overthink the first round. It's loaded with talent. Just take the best guy on your board and proceed.Round 2: De'Von AchaneJust like Round 1, our pool of available players is very dependent on where we are in the draft order. If I'm near the Round 1-2 turn, I'll likely be eyeing a running back, with Achane as the highlight and the likes of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III among the appealing options.Achane is a polarizing player. On the one hand, he's 24 years old, having finished both of the past two seasons in the top five among running backs in fantasy points. He has scored either 11 or 12 TDs in each of his three NFL campaigns, and he leads all qualified backs with 5.62 YPC since entering the league.On the other hand, he lost RB-friendly playcaller Mike McDaniel and the rebuilding Miami offense could struggle to move the ball in 2026. The bottom line for me is that, as coach Jeff Hafley noted in early August, Achane is going to handle a massive workload. That's enough for me to pounce on Achane, who reminds me a lot of prime Alvin Kamara, at the Round 1-2 turn.The mid-to-late portion of Round 2 leans more toward wide receiver, with Drake London, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown and George Pickens there for the taking. I have no major qualms with investing in one of the "Big 2" tight ends -- Trey McBride or Brock Bowers -- but I think you can get more value later.Round 3: Jeremiyah LoveLove can be best described as "My Guy" in 2026. I have him ranked well above the consensus and often grab him late in the second round when possible. However, he generally comes off the board near the Round 2-3 turn, more likely now settling into the third round as he recovers from an ankle injury suffered in his preseason debut. At worst, he's expected to miss one game, but it's very possible -- perhaps even likely? -- that he'll be good to go for Week 1.Even if Love's career starts off slowly, he's a good bet to beat his ADP. The No. 3 overall pick in April's draft, Love is looking to become the 10th consecutive back selected in the top 12 to finish in the top 12 in fantasy points as a rookie. He looked excellent in his debut and is capable as a rusher, receiver and blocker. I expect RB1 production when he's on the field.If not Love, Malik Nabers and Rashee Rice are my targets here. We've been getting a discount on both for different reasons, but Nabers is on the rise now that it appears he'll be able to play in Week 1 (following a successful recovery from last season's torn ACL). Rice still could face league discipline, but that's already baked into his cost. He remained his usual, productive self when active last season, handling 9.8 targets per game and posting top-12 fantasy outings in five of his eight games.My RB6 through RB15 form one giant tier, so whichever backs remain from that group are also on my radar here. That includes Breece Hall and, while we need to monitor for a potential suspension, Josh Jacobs.Round 4: Garrett WilsonMy favorite round this season? The fourth. My favorite pick in said round? Wilson.We're getting a discount on the fifth-year receiver after an injury-plagued 2025 campaign in which he missed 10 games. Of course, he was productive when healthy, averaging 14.2 fantasy PPG thanks to a massive 33% target share. Wilson is primed for a career year with Geno Smith under center. Though not a major upgrade, Smith did lead the trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Smith-Njigba to top-16 fantasy campaigns during the 2022-24 seasons.If not Wilson, I'm likely going with one of Cam Skattebo or Quinshon Judkins, as (a) they're two of my favorite running back targets this year and (b) running back dries up in a hurry after this round. Year 2 wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka are also very appealing here and I'm also not afraid to take a shot on second-year tight end Colston Loveland.Round 5: Tyler WarrenWarren is my favorite tight end value pick. The second-year player had a terrific rookie season -- and it very well could have been better. In 12 games with a healthy Daniel Jones, he scored five touchdowns and averaged 13.1 fantasy PPG. In five games with Jones out, he failed to find the end zone and averaged just 6.3 PPG. Warren finished his debut season ranked in the top five among tight ends in both targets and end zone targets. He also handled three goal-line carries.If I don't go tight end, I like the value at wide receiver. Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams and Davante Adams are all on my radar.Round 6: Rome OdunzeAlthough teammate Luther Burden III is getting all the hype, Odunze is well positioned for a Year 3 leap. He very well could lead a good Chicago offense in both targets and fantasy points. We saw his ceiling early on last season in the form of five touchdowns and 15-plus fantasy points over his first four games. It's possible he gets back to that WR1 level now that he's near full health.I'm also looking at Carnell Tate in this range, though I'll feel better if Cam Ward shows progress this preseason. Parker Washington has been one of my favorite targets throughout the offseason, but his ADP has ballooned to the sixth round. That's made him quite expensive. I haven't yet selected a quarterback in this exercise, but this isn't a bad place to strike with Jayden Daniels on the board.The middle roundsOK, so the core of my team is in place. Now it's time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. We'll save the high-risk fliers for later.Round 7: Courtland SuttonIt's been years since Sutton wasn't a favorite target of mine, and he continues to pay dividends. The veteran receiver has delivered 1,000-plus yards and a top-20 fantasy campaign in both of the last two seasons. He'll have more target competition with Jaylen Waddle in the mix, but he'll remain one of Bo Nix's go-to receivers, especially near the goal line. Sutton ranks third in the league in end zone targets over the last four seasons.If not a wide receiver, Rico Dowdle makes for a solid RB3/flex. If I haven't addressed tight end yet, I'd be all over Sam LaPorta or Kyle Pitts Sr.Round 8: Michael Pittman Jr.The middle-round wide receiver run continues with Pittman. Like Sutton, Pittman continues to pay off as a boring investment in the middle rounds. The ex-Colt finished four of his six seasons in Indianapolis as a top-20 fantasy receiver and he's reached 800 receiving yards in five consecutive seasons. He's unlikely to deliver big touchdown numbers, but is still a good bet to lead the Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers in both targets and catches.If I want to aim for a higher ceiling than Pittman, ex-teammate Alec Pierce is a fun "lottery ticket" in this range. Signed to a four-year, $114 million contract in the offseason, Pierce's ADP has dipped as he recovers from ankle/heel surgery. I'll keep drafting him as long as his expected date of return remains Week 1. If not a receiver, Jonathon Brooks is a terrific target, as he very well could lead the Carolina backfield this season.Round 9: Jaxson DartFinally a quarterback! Dart is one of my most-drafted players this season, as he's inexpensive and has a substantial fantasy ceiling. As a rookie, he played the bulk of Giants snaps in 12 games and was a top-10 fantasy scorer in eight of those weeks -- only four quarterbacks had more top-10 outings! With John Harbaugh now in charge and Nabers back (Dart threw only three passes his way last season), Dart has a better supporting cast to go along with elite rushing ability. The 2025 first-round pick is a sleeper to lead the quarterback position in fantasy points.If not Dart, I'm looking at RBs Kenny Gainwell and Jordan Mason or TE George Kittle. Kittle would generally come off the board much earlier, but he comes at a discount this year while he recovers from a torn Achilles. He's expected to be ready to play in either Week 1 or 2.Round 10: Bo Nix or Brock PurdyI'm usually content to leave a draft with one quarterback. That said, especially if I wait at the position (as I did in this exercise), I have no issue grabbing a second one. That game plan is even more sensible in 2026 with a deep tier of fringe-QB1 options.In this case, I took somewhat of a risk with Dart, so I'm following up with a more proven commodity in Nix or Purdy. Nix often falls to the 10th round of drafts despite having finished exactly seventh in fantasy points in both of his NFL seasons. Oh, and his supporting cast is even better with Waddle in the fold. Purdy missed quite a bit of time due to injury last season, but he was terrific when active, scoring 17-plus fantasy points in seven out of nine games. He's eyeing his fourth consecutive top-10 finish in fantasy PPG.If I'm not looking quarterback here, second-year RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt and veteran TE Jake Ferguson are on my radar.The late-round fliersAt this point, our starting lineup is likely full, which means it's time to look for values and upside for our bench.Round 11: Matthew GoldenPackers wideouts haven't been good to me in the past (including Golden last season), but this value is too good to pass up. Golden played a limited role as a rookie and failed to find the end zone, but he did flash at times, including a 4-84-1 receiving line in the team's playoff loss to Chicago. Coach Matt LaFleur seems intent on narrowing the target tree this season. With both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone, that's good news for Golden, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. Golden -- a 2025 first-round pick -- is a Year 2 breakout candidate you can get in the double-digit rounds. Sign me up!I also like rookie KC Concepcion and post-hype Xavier Worthy in this range. I've also taken fliers on Zach Charbonnet, who will eventually return from a torn ACL to potentially lead a terrific Seattle run offense, and Dallas Goedert.Round 12: De'Zhaun StriblingAs of the moment, Stribling's ADP is in the 13th round, but I don't love the options here, so I'm not going to be afraid to reach a bit for a potential league winner. The No. 33 pick in April's draft, Stribling has good size (6-foot-2, 207 lbs.) and speed (a 4.36 40-yard dash). Plus, he has impressed in preseason action.With Ricky Pearsall out for the season, the rookie will compete with Mike Evans (33 years old), Deebo Samuel Sr. (30, just re-signed) and Kittle (torn Achilles recovery) for work in a 49ers offense that has finished sixth or better in passing yards in each of the last three seasons. Oh, and his uncle is WWE Hall of Famer, Don "The Magnificent" Muraco. Stribling is an easy click in the later rounds.If not Stribling, Rashid Shaheed is a fine lottery ticket here, as are a handful of running backs, including Woody Marks, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Tyler Allgeier and Tyjae Spears.Rounds 13-14: High-ceiling insurance and breakout candidatesADP starts to go out the window late in the draft, so now is the time to get our favorite late-round sleepers and breakout candidates.Here are some of the players I will be considering with my final few picks:Quarterback fliers: I generally select one quarterback, especially since a lot of solid QB2 options will go undrafted in most formats. However, if I'm eyeing a sneaky veteran or breakout candidate in a deeper league, the likes of Daniel Jones, Malik Willis and Cam Ward are on my radar.Running back insurance: A few popular insurance RBs will be gone by now, but a ton remain, including Brian Robinson Jr., Keaton Mitchell, Isiah Pacheco, Jonah Coleman, Tank Bigsby, Ray Davis, Dylan Sampson, Mike Washington Jr., Braelon Allen and MarShawn Lloyd. Pick your favorite!Wide receiver upside fliers: As we learned in Part 1 of my Playbook, young receivers who were drafted in the first few rounds are terrific upside targets. Your top late-round options who fit that bill in 2026 include rookies Stribling, Denzel Boston, Caleb Douglas, Ja'Kobi Lane, Germie Bernard, Zachariah Branch and Omar Cooper Jr., as well as youngsters Travis Hunter, Jalen McMillan, Tre' Harris and Adonai Mitchell. I could expand this list even further, but as a simple rule, we should have our eyes on first- and second-year receivers who went on Day 1 or 2 of the NFL draft.Tight end options: There are always a few interesting late-round TE fliers of note. Among those available this season are veterans T.J. Hockenson, Hunter Henry and Juwan Johnson, as well as young, breakout candidates Terrance Ferguson, Kenyon Sadiq and Gunnar Helm. Ferguson feels like an absolute steal in this range, as he could easily finish third in targets in the high-scoring Rams offense. Sadiq is looking to become the sixth consecutive tight end drafted in the first round to finish in the top 12 in fantasy points as a rookie.Rounds 15-16: Kicker and D/ST ... or more breakout candidates!We're assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If we're drafting here at ESPN, we'll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker -- and I'll cover my favorite targets at those spots later. However, if there's flexibility in your league, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our leaguemates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.Why? I have no idea. Don't do that!In lieu of those positions, I will gather up insurance policies at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens defense rostered and Saquon Barkley goes down for the season, I have the Ravens defense. If I instead have Tank Bigsby rostered when Barkley goes down, I have myself a potential RB2.Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup, along with a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN -- and why wouldn't it be? -- one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense immediately after the draft in favor of adding more of the high-upside stashes mentioned earlier.Defense/special teamsHistory has taught us over and over that we should never reach on our D/ST. In fact, The No.1-scoring fantasy D/ST has finished ninth or worse the following season in seven of the past nine seasons. Additionally, four defenses that finished 27th or worse in 2024 rebounded with a top-10 finish in 2025.The Texans, Broncos, Steelers, Seahawks and Rams sit atop my D/ST rankings. However, since I like to stream, I'll also be looking at the Jaguars, Jets and Chargers -- each has a relatively light Week 1 opponent.KickerThis is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Brandon Aubrey, Cameron Dicker and Jason Myers are at the top of my rankings, but don't reach on any of them. The legend that is Daniel Carlson finished as fantasy's top kicker in 2021 and 2022. Did that convince you to reach on him a bit in your 2023 draft? If so, you ended up with fantasy's No. 24 kicker. In fact, the top scorer at the position has finished eighth or worse the following season in six of the last eight seasons. Myers, an 11-year veteran, had never finished better than fourth in fantasy points prior to leading the position in 2025.So, there you have it. My game plan for a 2026 fantasy football championship. Remember, this article should not serve as your only draft board. It's simply the players I've found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, those I would love to have on my squad this year."

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