Anti-Tout Science Desk
Trout Tout Track real tout accuracy vs our public model picks.
Per-source pick-accuracy leaderboard. Sample-size shrunk (Bayesian), 95% confidence intervals. Negative lift means the source's calls have underperformed the sport-position baseline — that's a trout. Fade it.
Building sample…
No source-accuracy data yet for this sport/window. The first cron tick that pairs mentions with player-game outcomes will populate this leaderboard. Check back in a few hours.
Sources making the boldest player calls (high-confidence + strong sentiment, last 90d). Hot-take index sums signed conviction; red = bullish-loaded, green = contrarian/bearish.
1 POD 49ers Rush Podcast with John Chapman 176 +8395
2 POD PFT Live with Mike Florio 148 +3887
3 POD Big Blue Kickoff Live | New York Giants 141 +6431
4 POD Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast 125 +6154
5 POD Go Birds! 110 +4782
6 POD NFL Talk | New York Giants 69 +2885
7 POD Locked On Saints - Daily Podcast On The New Orleans Saints 57 +3197
8 NEW Pro Football Focus 51 +2397
9 POD Giants Nation Show (Giants Podcast) 42 +718
10 POD NFL Talk | New Orleans Saints 35 +2003
11 POD NFL Talk | New York Jets 32 +1480
12 POD Locked On Giants - Daily Podcast On The New York Giants 29 +1298
13 POD Big Blue Banter: A New York Giants Football Podcast 27 +1159
14 POD 6 Rings and Football Things 24 +55
15 POD The Ringer's Philly Special 20 +1141
16 NEW Windy City Gridiron (CHI) 20 -150
17 NEW SB Nation NFL 16 +925
18 POD Breaking Big Blue with Jordan Raanan 15 +532
19 POD New York, New York with John Jastremski 15 +99
20 POD Talkin’ Giants (Giants Podcast) 14 +349
What the columns mean
- Lift
- Shrunk point estimate of how much better (or worse) the source's calls performed vs the sport-position baseline. Positive = the source helped, negative = trout.
- Hit rate
- Win % on explicit picks, excluding pushes. 52.4% is breakeven vs -110 juice.
- 95% CI
- Confidence interval around the point estimate. Wide bars = thin sample; thin bars crossing 0 (or 50%) = the source is statistically indistinguishable from noise.
- n
- Sample size — observations contributing to the estimate. n < 10 is flagged as a small sample (faded CI bar).
- CLV
- Closing-line value — how much the line moved after the source's pick, in the source's direction (avg %). The strongest long-run skill signal.