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Model predictions Book feed as of Mon, Sep 21, 10:57 PM EDT
Picks · this week
Picks: one play, the price, the heat — and why
The slate is a heat map of calibrated confidence — glow is earned by the model's gate, not marketing. Each play opens into its attribution: which lenses fired, what the sharp money did, where the key numbers sit.
This week’s picks · NFL 2026 Week 3
16 house plays across 16 games · first kickoff in 2 days
as of Sep 21, 11:22 PM ET · n=16
This week’s picks · NFL 2026 Week 3 · 16 plays above the floor, 0 NO PLAYs shown so you know we looked
The side the model favors and how far past a coin flip it leans (bar from 50, the 0.55 play floor ticked), the matchup's side/total/top-prop reads · best captured price · published edge · the side each lens likes on this line
| Play | Game | Model | Best price | Edge | Lens reads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL +6.5 | 0.80 ATL favored ATL GB Side ATL GB 0.80 · ATL favored Total UND OVR 0.60 · Under favored | −112Pinnacle | +11.9 | Primetime Dog ATL ✓ · 221-195 · ATS Streak Regression GB ✗ · 409-388 · Line Value ATL ✓ · 389-357
| |
| NYG +5.5 | 0.66 NYG favored TEN NYG Side TEN NYG 0.66 · NYG favored Total UND OVR 0.71 · Over favored | −110ticket | +8.3 | ATS Streak Regression TEN ✗ · 409-388
| |
| CLE −2.5 | 0.79 CLE favored CAR CLE Side CAR CLE 0.79 · CLE favored Total UND OVR 0.61 · Over favored | −110ticket | +7.9 | Line Value CLE ✓ · 389-357 · ATS Streak Regression CAR ✗ · 409-388
| |
| DET +7 | 0.78 DET favored NYJ DET Side NYJ DET 0.78 · DET favored Total UND OVR 0.57 · Over favored | −110ticket | +1.3 | Rest Edge DET ✓ · 211-206 · Line Value NYJ ✗ · 389-357 · ATS Streak Regression NYJ ✗ · 409-388
| |
| MIA −8.5 | 0.90 MIA favored KC MIA Side KC MIA 0.90 · MIA favored Total UND OVR 0.61 · Under favored | −110ticket | +15.3 | Line Value MIA ✓ · 389-357 · ATS Streak Regression MIA ✓ · 409-388
| |
| SEA −2.5 | 0.86 SEA favored SEA WAS Side SEA WAS 0.86 · SEA favored Total UND OVR 0.77 · Over favored | −110ticket | +10.5 | ATS Streak Regression WAS ✗ · 409-388 · Line Value WAS ✗ · 389-357
| |
| BUF +4.5 | 0.58 BUF favored LAC BUF Side LAC BUF 0.58 · BUF favored Total UND OVR 0.72 · Under favored | −110ticket | +7.1 | Line Value LAC ✗ · 389-357 · Rest Edge BUF ✓ · 211-206 · ATS Streak Regression LAC ✗ · 409-388
| |
| IND −2.5 | 0.63 IND favored HOU IND Side HOU IND 0.63 · IND favored Total UND OVR 0.69 · Over favored | −110ticket | +1.8 | ATS Streak Regression HOU ✗ · 409-388 · Divisional Dog IND ✓ · 366-319 · Line Value IND ✓ · 389-357
| |
| PIT −2.5 | 0.90 PIT favored CIN PIT Side CIN PIT 0.90 · PIT favored Total UND OVR 0.71 · Over favored | −110ticket | +13.4 | Divisional Dog PIT ✓ · 366-319 · Line Value PIT ✓ · 389-357
| |
| NE +2.5 | 0.60 NE favored NE JAX Side NE JAX 0.60 · NE favored Total UND OVR 0.56 · Over favored | −110ticket | −1.8 | Line Value NE ✓ · 389-357
| |
| ARI +8.5 | 0.67 ARI favored ARI SF Side ARI SF 0.67 · ARI favored Total UND OVR 0.61 · Over favored | −109Pinnacle | +12.0 | Divisional Dog ARI ✓ · 366-319 · ATS Streak Regression ARI ✓ · 409-388
| |
| MIN +1.5 | 0.67 MIN favored MIN TB Side MIN TB 0.67 · MIN favored Total UND OVR 0.60 · Under favored | −110ticket | +3.9 | Line Value TB ✗ · 389-357
| |
| DAL −3 | 0.75 DAL favored BAL DAL Side BAL DAL 0.75 · DAL favored Total UND OVR 0.60 · Over favored | −110ticket | +5.2 | ATS Streak Regression DAL ✓ · 409-388 · Line Value DAL ✓ · 389-357
| |
| NO +3 | 0.74 NO favored LV NO Side LV NO 0.74 · NO favored Total UND OVR 0.73 · Under favored | −110ticket | +6.4 | Line Value LV ✗ · 389-357 · ATS Streak Regression LV ✗ · 409-388
| |
| DEN −2.5 | 0.75 DEN favored LA DEN Side LA DEN 0.75 · DEN favored Total UND OVR 0.59 · Over favored | −110ticket | +8.1 | ATS Streak Regression LA ✗ · 409-388 · Primetime Dog DEN ✓ · 221-195 · Line Value DEN ✓ · 389-357 · Home Dog Primetime DEN ✓ · 86-74
| |
| CHI +1.5 | 0.64 CHI favored PHI CHI Side PHI CHI 0.64 · CHI favored Total UND OVR 0.55 · Under favored | −105ticket | +4.2 | Home Dog Primetime CHI ✓ · 86-74 · ATS Streak Regression PHI ✗ · 409-388 · Line Value CHI ✓ · 389-357 · Primetime Dog CHI ✓ · 221-195
|
Best price = the best captured book price at the play’s own line, across books (ticket = the price at publish when no book quotes that exact line yet; — = no price at all, never −110). Edge = published edge vs the opening no-vig fair price, pts. Lens reads: each GRADED canonical lens’s side on this line’s market and its win-loss record · ✓ agrees with the house · ✗ opposes · persona voices never render here. n=16 games · as of Sep 21, 11:22 PM ET
ATL @ GB · the why
ATL +6.5
calibrated 0.80 vs the 0.55 floor · attribution, not vibes
- Fan no read —
- Sharp money 100% ✗
- Modeler 100% ✓
- Contrarian 100% ✓
2 of 4 voices agree
as of Sep 21, 11:22 PM ET
Where the money is going
open → now · tickets vs dollars · 14 books
No spread splits captured in the last 6h for this slate.
as of —
Steam · live rail
open → now on the slate, largest first · cause tags arrive with the splits read
- 11:07 PM ET ATL @ GB · spread · GB −7 → −6
- 11:07 PM ET KC @ MIA · spread · MIA +10.5 → +11.5
- 11:07 PM ET MIN @ TB · spread · TB +2.5 → +1.5
- 11:07 PM ET PHI @ CHI · spread · CHI +4.5 → +3.5
- 11:07 PM ET CAR @ CLE · spread · CLE +2.5 → +3
- 11:07 PM ET SEA @ WAS · spread · WAS +6.5 → +7
- 10:57 PM ET BAL @ DAL · spread · DAL +2.5 → +3
as of Sep 21, 11:22 PM ET
Book screen · best number lit
1 of 1 game where books disagree on the line
2 books, one glance — never take a worse
number
| Play | Pinnacle | Bovada |
|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB ATL +6.5 | −6.5 | −6 |
home spread per book · live pregame · n=2 quotes · captured Sep 21, 11:22 PM ET. Totals and moneylines have no home-spread number to light.
Value board · ranked by edge · edge vs the opening no-vig fair price
16 house plays · This week’s picks · NFL 2026 Week 3
16 ranked by published edge · 0 without a published edge · 16 priced
| # | Game | Play | Edge | Ticket price | Model p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC @ MIA | MIA −8.5 | +15.3 pts | −110 | 90% |
| 2 | CIN @ PIT | PIT −2.5 | +13.4 pts | −110 | 90% |
| 3 | ARI @ SF | ARI +8.5 | +12.0 pts | −110 | 67% |
| 4 | ATL @ GB | ATL +6.5 | +11.9 pts | −105 | 80% |
| 5 | SEA @ WAS | SEA −2.5 | +10.5 pts | −110 | 86% |
| 6 | TEN @ NYG | NYG +5.5 | +8.3 pts | −110 | 66% |
| 7 | LA @ DEN | DEN −2.5 | +8.1 pts | −110 | 75% |
| 8 | CAR @ CLE | CLE −2.5 | +7.9 pts | −110 | 79% |
| 9 | LAC @ BUF | BUF +4.5 | +7.1 pts | −110 | 58% |
| 10 | LV @ NO | NO +3 | +6.4 pts | −110 | 74% |
| 11 | BAL @ DAL | DAL −3 | +5.2 pts | −110 | 75% |
| 12 | PHI @ CHI | CHI +1.5 | +4.2 pts | −105 | 64% |
| 13 | MIN @ TB | MIN +1.5 | +3.9 pts | −110 | 67% |
| 14 | HOU @ IND | IND −2.5 | +1.8 pts | −110 | 63% |
| 15 | NYJ @ DET | DET +7 | +1.3 pts | −110 | 78% |
| 16 | NE @ JAX | NE +2.5 | −1.8 pts | −110 | 60% |
Swipe the table for price · model p
Edge is the number the model release published against the opening no-vig fair price — never derived here. Ticket price = the play's price at publish (the best book price at the play's line is on the tonight table); a missing capture reads as its words, never as −110.
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