Model output, not advice.

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Model predictions Book feed as of Mon, Sep 21, 10:07 PM EDT

Lenses on this matchup

market-price

Steam Move

A large net line move between open and close — spread points, total points, or moneyline implied-probability shift — reflects sharp money and predicts value on the side the price moved toward.

The tell: Spread moved >=1.5pt, total moved >=2.5pt, or moneyline implied win probability moved >=3pt.

7-8 ATS (46.7%) · all games · n=15 · as of Sep 22, 2026

Beat the closing line: not captured yet

Drift not measured

By window

No graded window split yet.

Fires this week on

ARI @ SF · spread · away
ATL @ GB · spread · away
ATL @ GB · total · under
CIN @ PIT · spread · away
CIN @ PIT · total · under
KC @ MIA · spread · away
LAC @ BUF · spread · home
LV @ NO · total · over
MIN @ TB · spread · away
NE @ JAX · spread · home
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
NYJ @ DET · total · over
PHI @ CHI · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · total · under
SEA @ WAS · spread · away
SEA @ WAS · total · under
TEN @ NYG · spread · home

market-price

Line Value

A closing spread a half point off a key number hands the underdog side extra backdoor- cover value that a spread sitting exactly on the key number does not.

The tell: The closing spread is within half a point of (but not exactly on) 3, 7, 10, 14, or 17.

390-357 ATS (52.1%) · all games · n=747 · as of Sep 22, 2026

Beat the closing line: not captured yet

Drift not measured

By window

No graded window split yet.

Fires this week on

ATL @ GB · spread · away
BAL @ DAL · spread · home
CAR @ CLE · spread · home
CIN @ PIT · spread · home
HOU @ IND · spread · home
KC @ MIA · spread · home
LA @ DEN · spread · home
LAC @ BUF · spread · away
LV @ NO · spread · away
MIN @ TB · spread · home
NE @ JAX · spread · away
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · spread · home
SEA @ WAS · spread · home

model-evidence

Model Market Gap

the model panel's mean win probability and the closing moneyline price usually agree closely; a persistent gap of >=8 points between them is informative about which one has not fully absorbed the game's real information

The tell: Model panel P(home wins) diverges >=8pt from the moneyline-implied P(home wins), panel >= 5 models.

8-19 ATS (29.6%) · all games · n=27 · as of Sep 22, 2026

Beat the closing line: not captured yet

Drift not measured

By window

No graded window split yet.

Fires this week on

ARI @ SF · moneyline · away
ATL @ GB · moneyline · away
CAR @ CLE · moneyline · home
CIN @ PIT · moneyline · home
HOU @ IND · moneyline · home
KC @ MIA · moneyline · home
LAC @ BUF · moneyline · away
NE @ JAX · moneyline · away
NYJ @ DET · moneyline · away
PHI @ CHI · moneyline · home
SEA @ WAS · moneyline · home
TEN @ NYG · moneyline · away

market-price

Key Number Cross

A spread that crosses a key number (3 or 7) between open and close reprices a meaningfully different fraction of NFL margins than a spread that never crosses one.

The tell: The closing spread has crossed the 3- or 7-point key number since the open.

6-4 ATS (60.0%) · all games · n=10 · as of Sep 22, 2026

Beat the closing line: not captured yet

Drift not measured

By window

No graded window split yet.

Fires this week on

ATL @ GB · spread · away
BAL @ DAL · spread · away
CAR @ CLE · spread · away
CIN @ PIT · spread · away
HOU @ IND · spread · away
LA @ DEN · spread · home
LAC @ BUF · spread · home
NE @ JAX · spread · home
NYJ @ DET · spread · away
PHI @ CHI · spread · away
SEA @ WAS · spread · home

NFL picks

NFL matchup

NE at JAX

Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET Week 3 Season 2026

Away

Home

JAX

Moneyline market

NE+140 · 40.1% fair

JAX-165 · 59.9% fair

Injuries & news

Cole Van Lanen JAX T

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Montaric Brown JAX CB

Neck

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Wyatt Milum JAX G

Knee

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Foye Oluokun JAX LB

Hamstring

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Anton Harrison JAX T

Illness

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Christian Barmore NE DT

Not injury related - other

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Morgan Moses NE T

Not injury related - resting player

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Harold Landry III NE LB

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Kayshon Boutte NE WR

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Patrick Mekari JAX G

Back

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Christian Gonzalez NE CB

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Charles Woods NE CB

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Efton Chism III NE WR

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Will Campbell NE T

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Marte Mapu NE LB

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Carlton Davis III NE CB

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
K'Lavon Chaisson NE LB

Illness

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jack Westover NE FB

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jared Wilson NE G

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Eric Murray JAX S

Full Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Chuma Edoga JAX T

Calf

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Travon Walker JAX DE

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Logan Cooke JAX P

Shoulder

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Robert Hainsey JAX C

Groin

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Antonio Gibson NE RB

Did Not Participate In Practice

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Joshua Farmer NE DT

Full Participation in Practice

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Dyami Brown JAX WR

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Yasir Abdullah JAX LB

Back

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Hunter Henry NE TE

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Mack Hollins NE WR

Full Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Anfernee Jennings NE LB

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Mike Onwenu NE G

Thigh

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Ezra Cleveland JAX G

Shoulder

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Hunter Long JAX TE

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jarrian Jones JAX CB

Illness

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB

Finger

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jahlani Tavai NE LB

Not injury related - personal matter

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jaylinn Hawkins NE S

Shoulder

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Milton Williams NE DT

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Quintin Morris JAX TE

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Devin Lloyd JAX LB

Chest

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Christian Elliss NE LB

Hip

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Greg Newsome II JAX CB

Shoulder

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Stefon Diggs NE WR

Not injury related - resting player

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Khyiris Tonga NE DT

Foot

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Elijah Ponder NE LB

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Craig Woodson NE S

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Garrett Bradbury NE C

Illness

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB

Full Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Antonio Johnson JAX S

Elbow

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Christian Braswell JAX CB

Hamstring

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Danny Striggow JAX DE

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Tim Patrick JAX WR

Foot

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jourdan Lewis JAX CB

Did Not Participate In Practice

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Dennis Gardeck JAX LB

Chest

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Travis Hunter JAX WR

Did Not Participate In Practice

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Arik Armstead JAX DT

Hand

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Andrew Wingard JAX S

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Travis Etienne JAX RB

Shoulder

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Brenden Schooler NE S

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
CJ Dippre NE TE

Illness

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Ventrell Miller JAX LB

Back

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Parker Washington JAX WR

Full Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Brenton Strange JAX TE

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Austin Hooper NE TE

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Marcus Jones NE CB

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jack Gibbens NE LB

Elbow

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Terrell Jennings NE RB

Full Participation in Practice

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB

Shoulder

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
DaVon Hamilton JAX DT

Back

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jack Kiser JAX LB

Shoulder

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Eric Gregory NE DT

Knee

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Ross Matiscik JAX LS

Back

Limited Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Walker Little JAX T

Concussion

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB

Ankle

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
BJ Green II JAX DE

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Robert Spillane NE LB

Limited Participation in Practice

Questionable Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Vederian Lowe NE T

Illness

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Josh Hines-Allen JAX DE

Shoulder

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Jalen McLeod JAX LB

Limited Participation in Practice

Out Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Thayer Munford Jr. NE T

Knee

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
DeMario Douglas NE WR

Hamstring

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Alex Austin NE CB

Wrist

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT
Drake Maye NE QB

Shoulder

Full Participation in Practice Updated Sep 21, 2:40 AM EDT

Ask SharkAI · NE @ JAX

SharkAI lenses

fan: Fan lens (narrative): NE at JAX, week 3, season 2026. not yet graded house · baked Sep 22

casual-bettor: The public leans JAX at market line 1.5. 10-13 (43%, n=23) house · baked Aug 24

sharp: Sharp finds value on the JAX side; posted line 3. 155-168 (48%, n=323) house · baked Sep 22

modeler: Modeler favors NE: predicted margin 1.03 vs posted line 3. 155-149 (51%, n=304) house · baked Sep 22

contrarian: Fade case: the popular JAX side at 3 is the overpriced one. 175-166 (51%, n=341) house · baked Sep 22

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