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Insights · NFL
What happened. What we learned.
Every graded pick, wins and losses, in one place. Read the record beside the proof, then see which angles held up.
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Sunday digest · 09:00
Preview of the weekly digest email.
- Plays above the floor: 5 · as of Oct 14, 12:56 AM ET
- Split: not in this digest yet
- Your ticket: not in this digest yet
- House record: 24-12-3 · 66.7% · NFL ATS, last 90 days · n=36 · as of Oct 13, 1:32 AM ET
- Alert fired: not in this digest yet
- Crew: not in this digest yet
- New badge: not in this digest yet
Live picks · last 90 days · n=36 · through Oct 13, 1:32 AM ET
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See ProInsights · real claim grader
The graded field: the market, mined
Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.
24 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window · small samples are labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.
Claims graded as of Oct 7, 3:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Oct 13, 3:15 AM ET
Pundit claim grading
newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger
| Claim | Source | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| “but I'm still gonna pick the Ravens.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “I'm gonna pick the Bills.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
| “I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “I still think the Jets would be able to win.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
| “I'm gonna pick the Browns.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “I'm gonna pick the Raiders.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
Pundit ledger
Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.
correct and wrong calls only quoted from the transcript
| Source | W-L | Hit % | n | Window | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Solak (The Football Show) | 14-10 | 58.3% | 24 | all-time | hot |
24 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window
Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.
Gasbag quadrant
More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.
correct + wrong only all-time
Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.