Insights
The same receipts query feeds Picks, Insights and the Sunday digest — it can never disagree with itself.
n=0 · as of Oct 5, 2026, 10:21 PM ET · Graded angle hit rates
Said is each lens's own average stated confidence; Hit is its observed win rate over the same graded claims. A lens under 50 graded claims still shows real numbers, marked "too few" rather than a verdict the sample can't support.
| Lens | Claims | Said | Hit | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp money | 0 | — | — | — | too few |
| Modeler | 0 | — | — | — | too few |
| Contrarian | 0 | — | — | — | too few |
| Casual bettor | 0 | — | — | — | too few |
Evidence awaiting graded rows
No calibration proof is available for this scope yet.
No graded ATS spread calibration yet
insights_widgets calibration-curve is present with n=0 as of Oct 5, 2026, 10:21 PM ET.
What you’ll see
What this page can show you about access, sample size, grading freshness and receipt consistency.
Access state
Signed out
Receipts + Leaderboard public (that's the marketing); Explore links to Data + saved views · this viewer: signed out
Access state
Signed out
Explore link-out + saved views + share cards; Me · not this viewer: signed out — the tier is not in this page's payload, so no tier is claimed
Query state
4,258 graded plays
receipts query · all-time window · n=4,258 · as of Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET
Sample health
2 / 4 rows under threshold
Insight widgets · current bake · n=4 widget rows · cells under 50 plays grey with the n; never hidden— lens-hit n=0, calibration-curve n=0
Grading window
50 upcoming games
loadGames · 50-game upcoming window · n=50 considered· last graded Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET
Integrity
Agrees
receipts aggregate vs per-market sum · all-time window · n=4,258 · checked this render · last graded Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET
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See ProInsights · real claim grader
Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.
22 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window · small n is labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.
Claims graded as of Oct 5, 3:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Oct 5, 3:15 AM ET
newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger
| Claim | Source | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| “I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “I'm gonna pick the Raiders.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “Speaker picks the Bengals to win over the Patriots.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “The Patriots really don't got a lot going for them it seems.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
| “I think the Eagles have together more, they worked together as a team better.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
| “I think that they are more cohesive and two, just more talented than the Jaguars.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.
| Source | W-L | Hit % | n | Window | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Solak (The Football Show) | 13-9 | 59.1% | 22 | all-time | hot |
22 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window
Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.
More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.
Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.
