Skip to content

Essential storage, first-party measurement, cookieless Google Tag Manager. Sentry, visit log off unless you Accept all.

Settings
$1 first week
Access: Anonymous access. Content follows.

Insights · NFL

What happened. What we learned.

Every graded pick, wins and losses, in one place. Read the record beside the proof, then see which angles held up.

Explore → Data

Saved views stay here; self-service exploration lives with Sharkai + Data.

Pulsing edge = opens more detail

Explore moved to Sharkai + Data

This tab is a link-out and saved-view list; it does not rebuild the explorer here.

Open Sharkai + Data ↓

Bookmarks

Saved views

Reopen this page with the exact filters and view state stored in the URL.

Sign in to save views.

Saved views are private to your account.

Sign in to save this view

Preset views

Available state: sport · model · season · week · chart settings.

Unlock more Insights tools

Keep exploring for free, or unlock the complete Insights toolkit with Pro.

$1 first week, then $2.99/week.

See Pro
The graded field

Insights · real claim grader

The graded field: the market, mined

Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.

24 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window · small samples are labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.

Claims graded as of Oct 7, 3:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Oct 8, 3:15 AM ET

Pundit claim grading

newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger

ClaimSourceVerdict
“but I'm still gonna pick the Ravens.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I'm gonna pick the Bills.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I still think the Jets would be able to win.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“I'm gonna pick the Browns.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I'm gonna pick the Raiders.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong

Pundit ledger

Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.

correct and wrong calls only quoted from the transcript
SourceW-LHit %nWindowVerdict
Ben Solak (The Football Show) 14-1058.3%24all-timehot

24 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window

Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.

Gasbag quadrant

More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.

correct + wrong only all-time
Pundit sample size versus hit rateZero-based scatter of provenance-clean decided claims. The vertical gate is n=20 and the horizontal gate is a 45 percent hit rate.n=20 gate45% hitprovenBen Solak (The Football Show): 14-10, 58.3%, n=24Ben Solak (The Football Show)0400%100%graded claims (x-axis starts at 0)hit rate

Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.