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▲-10 → -9.5 (+0.5) over 24 captures TB @ DAL DAL -10 → -9.5 · DraftKings — open TB @ DAL matchup■ house House record, last 10: 8–2 · NFL ATS, last 90 days: 66.7% (n=30) · Early sample · 30 of 50 plays · 1d ago — open the house record
Access: Anonymous access. Content follows.

Insights

Receipts first. Every number traces to a graded row.

The same receipts query feeds Picks, Insights and the Sunday digest — it can never disagree with itself.

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Preset views

Dimensions: models · modules (not yet) · lenses · pundits · angles · sport · market · week · book · regime (not yet). Measures: record · ROI · $ at stake (not yet) · CLV · Brier · calibration gap · lift. (8/10 dimensions and 6/7 measures are queryable today.)

Available state: sport · model · season · week · chart specification.

What you’ll see

Access and data readiness

What this page can show you about access, sample size, grading freshness and receipt consistency.

Access state

Anon

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Receipts + Leaderboard public (that's the marketing); Explore links to Data + saved views · this viewer: signed out

Access state

Trial · paid

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Explore link-out + saved views + share cards; Me · not this viewer: signed out — the tier is not in this page's payload, so no tier is claimed

Query state

Cold query

4,258 graded plays

receipts query · all-time window · n=4,258 · as of Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

Sample health

Small n

2 / 4 rows under threshold

Insight widgets · current bake · n=4 widget rows · cells under 50 plays grey with the n; never hidden— lens-hit n=0, calibration-curve n=0

Grading window

Week not graded

50 upcoming games

loadGames · 50-game upcoming window · n=50 considered· last graded Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

Integrity

Disagreement guard

Agrees

receipts aggregate vs per-market sum · all-time window · n=4,258 · checked this render · last graded Sep 29, 5:23 PM ET

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The graded field

Insights · real claim grader

The graded field: the market, mined

Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.

public.pundit_claim_grades public.pundit_claims · transcript-backed public.pundits.kind=real correct + wrong denominator

22 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window · small n is labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.

Claims graded as of Oct 5, 3:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Oct 5, 3:15 AM ET

Pundit claim grading

newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger

ClaimSourceVerdict
“I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I'm gonna pick the Raiders.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“Speaker picks the Bengals to win over the Patriots.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“The Patriots really don't got a lot going for them it seems.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“I think the Eagles have together more, they worked together as a team better.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“I think that they are more cohesive and two, just more talented than the Jaguars.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct

Pundit ledger

Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.

pundit_claim_grades pundit_claims · transcript evidence pundits.kind=real
SourceW-LHit %nWindowVerdict
Ben Solak (The Football Show) 13-959.1%22all-timehot

22 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window

Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.

Gasbag quadrant

More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.

pundit_claim_grades correct + wrong only all-time
Pundit sample size versus hit rateZero-based scatter of provenance-clean decided claims. The vertical gate is n=20 and the horizontal gate is a 45 percent hit rate.n=20 gate45% hitprovenBen Solak (The Football Show): 13-9, 59.1%, n=22Ben Solak (The Football Show)0400%100%graded claims (x-axis starts at 0)hit rate

Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.