Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
The board says Chargers, and it is not close
I priced every Week 1 favorite off Pinnacle's moneyline myself, then stripped the vig out, the same math behind a proper no-vig price. That makes the two sides of a game add back up to 100% instead of the roughly 104% the book actually charges you. Chargers at home against Arizona come out on top at 80.5%. Nothing else on the slate is within five points of it.
Go look at the full Week 1 odds board first, because a number this loud tends to move some by Thursday, and Thursday is when your pick has to be in.
| Week 1 favorite | Pinnacle moneyline | No-vig win probability | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers over Arizona Cardinals | -509 | 80.5% | Sun Sep 13, 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jacksonville Jaguars over Cleveland Browns | -391 | 76.8% | Sun Sep 13, 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Detroit Lions over New Orleans Saints | -321 | 73.7% | Sun Sep 13, 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Commanders | -228 | 67.3% | Sun Sep 13, 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cincinnati Bengals over Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -208 | 65.4% | Sun Sep 13, 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Los Angeles Rams over San Francisco 49ers | -197 | 64.3% | Thu Sep 10, 8:35 p.m. ET |
Jacksonville over Cleveland and Detroit over New Orleans are the next tier, both above 70%. If you already burned a bigger name in a pool that started before Week 1, either one is a reasonable save. Past the top three it all drops into the 60s and below, close enough together that I wouldn't call any of them a survivor lock, and I've called plenty of things locks that cost me a set of tires.
Why the safest pick is not automatically the right pick
An 80.5% favorite still loses one time in five. That's before you think about who else picked them. I don't know how many entries in your pool are on the Chargers this week; nobody publishes that count. My guess is a lot, because a gap this size is loud and everybody can see it.
I'm not going to make up an ownership number to make this paragraph sound sharper than it is. If your pool pays the last one standing out of a big group, a chalk pick everybody shares doesn't set you apart when it hits. It keeps you alive, and that's all it does. Our fade-the-public survivor guide works through that trade in more depth; this page sticks to the raw Week 1 numbers.
Quick gloss, because I got this wrong for two seasons: in a survivor pool a pick sets you apart when it wins and few other entries had it. A team nobody else took is worth more when it hits than a team everybody took, even though both count as one win. The Chargers number is strong enough that I'd still take it in a small, casual pool where standing out barely matters. In a big pool that runs deep into the season, I'd think hard about giving up a little win probability for a team fewer entries are holding.
What this board cannot tell you about later weeks
Here's the gap I can't fill for you: I'm working off the Week 1 board only. I don't have a full-season schedule grid in front of me, so I can't tell you whether the Chargers get a softer spot in Week 10 that would make saving them worth a tougher pick now. Anybody telling you exactly which week to save a team for, months out, is guessing past what one week's board can prove. Use this table for Week 1.
Build the rest of the season as later boards get priced, and check this week's NFL picks once kickoff gets closer.
The Donk Check
Chargers at 80.5% is the lean, and I'm burning them in Week 1. I've burned a chalk favorite in Week 1 before and felt like a genius for about four days, right up until the same team lost as a favorite three weeks later, the week I actually needed them. Still the Chargers, because 80.5% is 80.5% and I'm not turning down the best number on the board out of boredom. The stake is your survivor entry, one pick, nothing extra on the side.
If your pool runs deep past Week 1, I'd rather take Jacksonville or Detroit now and keep the Chargers in my pocket for a week the board forces my hand. One thing to watch: the Chargers' price before kickoff Thursday. If it drifts much off 80.5%, some of that pool-size question has already answered itself.
