Every sportsbook line is two prices in a trench coat. There is the price you see, and underneath it there is a tax — the vig — that the book bakes in to guarantee a profit no matter which side wins. Understanding vig, juice, and hold is the single most-skipped step in becoming a better bettor, because it tells you what you are actually being charged, and which markets are worth your money. This guide walks through what those words mean, how to convert them, and how to use them to find soft books and sharp lines.
Vig, juice, and hold — what each word means
The terms are often used interchangeably, but they are not quite the same thing.
- Vig (or vigorish): the markup the book charges on a bet, typically expressed as part of the odds. The standard "-110 both sides" line carries about 4.5 percent vig.
- Juice: a colloquial term, almost always synonymous with vig. "The juice on this side is bad" means the price is worse than -110.
- Hold: the book's expected profit margin on a market, expressed as a percentage of total handle. A two-way market priced -110/-110 has a hold of about 4.55 percent.
Think of it this way: vig is the price tag on a single side. Hold is the book's overall cut once you sum both sides.
How to calculate hold in 30 seconds
Convert each side of the line to its implied probability, add them up, and the amount over 100 percent is the book's hold.
Implied probability formula (American odds):
- Negative odds: probability = -odds / (-odds + 100)
- Positive odds: probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
Example: a game listed as Eagles -120 / Cowboys +100.
- Eagles -120: 120 / 220 = 54.5 percent
- Cowboys +100: 100 / 200 = 50.0 percent
- Sum: 104.5 percent
- Hold: 4.5 percent
That extra 4.5 percent does not exist in the real world. There is no scenario where the Eagles win 54.5 percent of the time AND the Cowboys win 50 percent of the time. The book has padded each side to guarantee profit, and the hold is the size of the pad.
Why -110 is the most quoted number in betting
The classic spread or total at -110 on both sides is almost an industry default. It corresponds to a hold of:
110/210 + 110/210 = 0.5238 + 0.5238 = 104.76 percent → 4.76 percent hold
To break even at -110, you need to win 52.38 percent of your bets. That is the famous "break-even" number that gets quoted everywhere. The five-percent bump from a true 50/50 toss-up is the vig at work.
Hold across markets — not all bets are equal
Different markets carry wildly different holds:
- NFL/NBA spreads and totals: 4.5 to 5 percent
- Moneylines (favorites): 2 to 4 percent
- Player props: 6 to 8 percent on most lines, sometimes higher on goalies/QB props
- Same-game parlays: 15 to 25 percent or more, depending on legs
- Futures (Super Bowl, MVP): 20 percent and up
- Live betting markets: often 7 to 10 percent during fast-moving spots
The implication is clear: a bettor who plays only spreads and totals is paying roughly half the tax of a bettor who plays mostly parlays and futures. Choosing which markets to play is a form of edge by itself. We dig into the parlay tax in our SGP math guide.
Why low-vig books matter
If you bet -110 your whole life, you need to hit 52.38 percent. If you can find -105 (some "reduced juice" books offer this), you only need 51.22 percent — more than a full point lower. Over 1,000 bets, that's the difference between profit and break-even for a lot of grinders.
Two practical points:
- Line shop every bet. The same game might be -110 at one book and -105 at another. Taking the better price is free EV.
- Track closing line value (CLV). Beating the close is the proof of edge. Beating the close at low-vig books is real money.
You can compare current lines and see closing-line tracking on the NFL picks and NBA picks dashboards.
Devigging: what the line "really" thinks
Once you know the hold, you can strip it out to back into the book's true probability estimate. This is called devigging.
Take the Eagles -120 / Cowboys +100 example:
- Eagles raw probability: 54.5%
- Cowboys raw probability: 50.0%
- Total: 104.5%
- Devigged Eagles: 54.5 / 104.5 = 52.2%
- Devigged Cowboys: 50.0 / 104.5 = 47.8%
The book "really" has the Eagles at about 52 percent. If your model has them at 56 percent, you have a 4-point edge — and now you can size the bet appropriately. Devigging is built into the model output on Tinker, but doing it by hand once or twice locks in the intuition.
Hold red flags
Some markets advertise themselves as bettor-friendly while quietly running 10+ percent hold:
- Stat-leader props. "Most receiving yards in the game" markets often carry 12 to 15 percent hold.
- Long-tail futures. Sub-1 percent contenders priced at +50000 are book gold.
- Boosted parlays. The "boost" usually closes a piece of a 25 percent hold to a 20 percent hold. Still bad.
If you cannot calculate the hold from the listed prices, the answer is almost always: it is high.
Bottom line
Vig is the fee. Juice is the slang for that fee. Hold is the book's expected take across the whole market. The difference between a good market and a bad one is mostly hold. Bet spreads and totals at low-vig books, line-shop every play, devig prices to find true probabilities, and avoid futures and SGPs unless you have a specific edge.
The bettors who win long-term do not just pick winners — they pick markets where the tax is small enough to leave room for an edge to survive. Start by tracking holds across your top three books for a week. The variation will surprise you.
Bet responsibly — set limits, never chase losses.