- Our model holds a 63.6% win rate over 33 games.
- It covers 12 of 15 Week 5 games.
- Several picks show a positive edge, led by MIA at 29.3 percentage points.
- Learn how the model works at model methodology and see prior week picks at Week 4 picks.
The Best Model and Its Record
The house model posts a 63.6% win rate over 33 games.
Positive Edge Picks
- Miami Dolphins (MIA) shows a 29.3 percentage points edge, with 19 of 21 models agreeing and the saved price +275.
- Baltimore Ravens (BAL) posts a 23.2 percentage points edge, 5 of 21 models in agreement and the saved price is +145.
- Green Bay Packers (GB) records a 16.5 percentage points edge, 4 of 21 models agree and the saved price stands at +130.
- Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) displays a 15.6 percentage points edge, 15 of 22 models concur and the saved price reads +154.
- New England Patriots (NE) holds a 13.2 percentage points edge, 4 of 22 models back it and the saved price is -192.
- Seattle Seahawks (SEA) notes a 7.2 percentage points edge, 6 of 22 models support the pick and the saved price appears as -155.
Passes
- Regarding the Dallas Cowboys (DAL), the model assigns a 55% win probability. According to the line, the market implies an 82% chance for Dallas. Skip at this saved price.
- For the Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX), the model rates a 64% win probability. Per the odds today, the market implies a 78% chance. Avoid at this saved price.
- Looking at the Houston Texans (HOU), the model gives a 70% win probability. From the board today, the market implies a 78.3% chance. Leave it at this saved price.
- Considering the Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT), the model shows a 55% win probability. As per the quote, the market indicates a 59.7% chance. Do not take this at the saved price.
- Evaluating the Detroit Lions (DET), the model estimates a 61% win probability. Based on the spread, the market suggests a 72.1% chance. Reject this at the saved price.
- Examining the Los Angeles Rams (LA), the model computes a 59% win probability. According to the quote, the market implies a 61.8% chance. Pass at this saved price.
The Receipts Drawer
The prices here are moneylines saved on October 7, not live quotes. Check current odds before you act. The best model rates 12 of 15 games; it has no pick for CLE at NYJ and MIN at NO and NYG at WAS. No injury information was supplied for these games.
Where these numbers come from
Every number above comes from Shark Snip’s Week 5 data pack, built Oct 7, 2026.
