Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
The market for Sunday night
Dallas plays at the Giants on Sunday, Sep 13, at 8:20 p.m. ET. Every book on our board has Dallas favored. They differ by half a point on how much.
| Book | Spread (home, Giants) | Total | Moneyline (Giants / Dallas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | +2.5 (112 / -126) | 47.5 | +142 / -161 |
| DraftKings | +3.0 (-112 / -108) | 48.5 | +136 / -162 |
| Bovada | +3.0 (-110 / -110) | 48.5 | +140 / -165 |
The gap between +2.5 and +3.0 is half a point, and the half point sitting on the 3 is the most expensive one in football. If you are betting the Giants, the +3 is the number to find before you bet the +2.5.
Our own pick is five points stale
Our published spread pick here is dated Aug 21. It backed the Giants at -2.5, when the Giants were the favorite, with our own number at 1.47 and a stated confidence of 83 percent. As of Sep 7 the Giants are not favored at all. They are getting 2.5 to 3.
That is a move of five to five and a half points against a pick we have not re-run, and different from ours by five points is the whole sentence. Treat the spread pick as stale until we run it again.
The total pick, also Aug 21, has aged better: over 48.5, projecting 53 combined points, an edge of 4.5 and a confidence of 74 percent, against a market total that sits at 47.5 to 48.5 today. The moneyline read, same date, backs Dallas at a stated edge of negative 0.07 and a Kelly stake of zero. That is a logged number, not a recommendation.
What the wider model run says
Underneath the published picks we run many separate models on every game. On the spread we ran 61 here. The median projected margin is Dallas by 3.2, almost exactly the 2.5-to-3-point number the books already offer, and 37 of the 61 side with Dallas. That reads as confirmation of the market, not a disagreement with it.
On the total we ran seven models. Six of them belong to model families we have pulled from publication after they failed a basic sanity check across the whole Week 1 board, so their numbers do not appear here. The one we stand behind projects 53, and it is the number behind the published over pick.
All four names have a number, and two of them changed sides
This hub's title names four Giants: Dart, Nabers, Tracy and Skattebo. All four sit on the Week 1 projection board, which scores PPR, and the order is not the one this page has been printing.
| Player | Team | Pos | Week 1 projected pts (PPR) | Board rank | ADP | Live prop lines (Underdog) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | 18.52 | 5 | 118.8 | 213.5 pass yds, 1.5 pass TD, 28.5 rush yds |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 13.75 | 20 | 26.6 | 60.5 rec yds, 5.5 receptions |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 13.67 | 19 | 38.6 | 49.5 rush yds, 70.5 rush+rec yds |
| Tyrone Tracy | NYG | RB | 2.45 | 67 | 162.1 | no prop line found |
Tyrone Tracy is the correction. This page used to file him ahead of the other back. Tracy comes back 67th among running backs on 2.45 projected points, with a questionable flag on him. Cam Skattebo is nineteenth at the position on 13.67, which is what a draft slot of 38.6 was already saying out loud.
Malik Nabers, twentieth among receivers on 13.75, also carries a flag. Then the quarterback. Jaxson Dart is fifth at his position on 18.52 and the room lets him go at 118.8, which is the one price here a drafter can still do something about.
What the Number Says
The number to carry out of this hub is five points: the distance between the Giants -2.5 our August pick was made against and the Giants +2.5 to +3 on the board Sep 7. What kills it is a fresh run of our spread model before kickoff; until that run exists, the August pick is a record, not a lean. Where it goes next: the market keeps moving through kickoff at /odds, what we like on this game right now sits at /picks/nfl, and any refreshed skill-position number would land at /fantasy/nfl/rankings. Watch the moneyline first.
It is the oldest of the three published numbers here, so it should be the first one to change.
