Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
The receiver order, ranked by projected points
Sorted by what each man projects for Sunday. Beside each name is the team's implied score for the game, which falls out of the game total once you take that side's spread off it. Then the board's rank at the position, then what drafters pay, then where he goes among receivers that carry a price. The last column is the difference between those two ranks.
Both are counted over the same 91 priced receivers, so the gaps sum to zero.
| Receiver | Team | Implied team total | Projected points, Week 1 (PPR) | Board rank at receiver | ADP | Draft rank at receiver | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 25.75 | 21.05 | 1 | 2.8 | 1 | +0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 27.5 | 19.95 | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | +0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 24.0 | 18.92 | 3 | 5.6 | 3 | +0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 28.75 | 18.83 | 4 | 6.9 | 4 | +0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 25.0 | 17.25 | 5 | 10.5 | 5 | +0 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 23.5 | 17.08 | 6 | 11.6 | 6 | +0 |
| Drake London | ATL | 19.5 | 15.10 | 8 | 13.8 | 7 | +1 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 24.5 | 14.79 | 12 | 29 | 16 | -4 |
| George Pickens | DAL | 25.0 | 14.68 | 13 | 19.7 | 10 | +3 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 25.5 | 14.24 | 15 | 24.4 | 13 | +2 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 27.5 | 12.96 | 21 | 36.1 | 19 | +2 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 20.0 | 11.68 | 30 | 61.2 | 30 | +0 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | 18.25 | 10.46 | 37 | 75.6 | 36 | +1 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 24.0 | 6.21 | 75 | 160.5 | 72 | +3 |
Six men where the two lists are identical
Puka Nacua at 21.05 points is the board's first receiver, and drafters take him first too. The next five behind him line up the same way, seat for seat, all the way down to Justin Jefferson in sixth. Six names, two independent lists, zero disagreement. That does not happen by accident and it does not leave anything for me to sell you.
The mispricing I claimed in August, and what became of it
A fortnight ago I had CeeDee Lamb 63 spots out of line and Justin Jefferson 48. Both now read zero. Lamb projects 17.25 at fifth among receivers and goes fifth in drafts. Jefferson projects 17.08 at sixth and goes sixth in drafts.
Then there is my contrarian pick, 86 spots the other way in August. Cooper Kupp reads +3 today, third on the Seattle depth chart, and his figure is down at 6.21. Three sections of a piece built on gaps that today's numbers will not support. I would rather print that sentence than go looking for a way to keep the story alive.
What is left to actually read
DeVonta Smith is the biggest disagreement anywhere on this page at -4 spots, which tells you how quiet the fourteen have gone. He projects 14.79 points, 12th at the position, and drafters wait until the 16th receiver to take him. Four slots of value on a first-string Philadelphia receiver with no tag beside his name. That is the whole edge available here, and it is a small one.
The columns that outrank the gap
So read the injury and depth columns instead. 4 of these fourteen carry a questionable tag, and two of those are the men at the very top. Puka Nacua sitting out costs your lineup more than every gap on this page combined. George Pickens is second on the Dallas chart at 14.68, Courtland Sutton second in Denver at 11.68, and Michael Wilson, whose 41-spot gap ran a whole section a fortnight ago, is now +1 behind the worst implied total on the page at 18.25.
Reading the gap the right way
Every gap here compares one week's projected points against a season-long draft price. Two different questions. So a wide gap means this week's read and the full-season read disagree about a man right now, and it settles nothing about which of the two is right. Nothing has been graded, because nothing has been played.
The Receipts Drawer
Four spots. That is the largest disagreement I could find between this board and the draft crowd across fourteen receivers, and it belongs to DeVonta Smith at 14.79 points. Anybody selling you a receiver arbitrage this week is selling something the numbers do not have. The way I end up wrong on him is Philadelphia spreading targets three ways in the opener, which is exactly what a 14.79 on a starter is quietly warning about, and you can count those targets in the first half yourself.
Then do the thing that actually matters: check the inactives on Puka Nacua and Ja'Marr Chase ninety minutes before kickoff. Both carry a questionable tag and both sit on top of this board.
The full receiver board is on our Week 1 fantasy rankings, and the spreads and totals behind the implied-total column sit on the odds board. The target-share angle on this same group is in Start Targets, Not Names, and the flex-wide version across positions is Start Ridley, Sit Metcalf, Spread Says So. FantasyPros' own consensus receiver rankings live at fantasypros.com/nfl.
