Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
The board, draft price against projected points
Each back's Week 1 figure sits beside where drafters take him. Board rank orders every priced back by projected points. Draft rank orders the same men by average draft position. Subtract the second from the first and a positive answer means the crowd is taking him earlier than this week's figure asks for.
Game context is the three-book average spread signed to his own team, with the total beside it.
| Running back | Team | Projected points, Week 1 (PPR) | Board rank at running back | ADP | Draft rank | Gap | Game context | Total | Injury tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 22.50 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | +0 | favored by 7.0 | 50.0 | none |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 19.28 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | +0 | underdog by 3.5 | 42.5 | none |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 18.38 | 3 | 5.8 | 3 | +0 | underdog by 3.5 | 48.17 | Questionable |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 18.06 | 5 | 21.4 | 11 | -6 | favored by 3.5 | 40.83 | Questionable |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 17.77 | 6 | 7.4 | 4 | +2 | underdog by 3.5 | 47.67 | none |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 16.37 | 10 | 15.7 | 8 | +2 | road favorite by 3.5 | 47.67 | none |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 16.03 | 11 | 13.2 | 7 | +4 | favored by 3.83 | 50.67 | none |
| Kenneth Walker | KC | 14.70 | 15 | 21.2 | 10 | +5 | favored by 3.0 | 43.33 | none |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 13.67 | 18 | 31.8 | 15 | +3 | favored by 3.5 | 48.17 | none |
The five that were blank in August
Here is the part I got to correct rather than defend. These five had no figure a fortnight ago. Now they do.
| Running back | Team | Projected points, Week 1 (PPR) | Board rank at running back | ADP | Draft rank | Gap | Injury tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | MIA | 18.22 | 4 | 9.7 | 5 | -1 | none |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | 17.66 | 7 | 18.4 | 9 | -2 | none |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 17.58 | 8 | 22.4 | 12 | -4 | none |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 16.49 | 9 | 30.9 | 14 | -5 | Questionable |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 15.22 | 12 | 32.9 | 16 | -4 | none |
Breece Hall carries the widest of the five at -5. He projects 16.49 points, ninth among the backs on this board, and drafters wait until the 14th one is gone. De'Von Achane reads -1 on 18.22 points, fourth at the position. Saquon Barkley -2 on 17.66.
The five gaps come back negative without exception, which puts the board above the crowd right across the group. I spent a section in August counting a blank column while the value was sitting inside it.
Where the crowd and the board already agree
3 of the nine originals are dead level. Jahmyr Gibbs tops the board at 22.50 points and goes off the table first in drafts. Bijan Robinson second on both. Christian McCaffrey third on both, with a questionable tag that matters more than any gap here.
In August I had Gibbs 46 spots out of line and built a bench call on it. The figure behind that call is gone, and Gibbs is now the best running back on this board.
The rest of the nine sit inside six spots either way. Kenneth Walker is the widest at +5, on 14.70 points in a game totalled at 43.33. The other direction belongs to Ashton Jeanty at -6 on 18.06 points, carrying a questionable tag and the lowest game total of the nine at 40.83. On him the tag outranks the gap.
What the board still does not carry
The board gives you a weekly figure, a place at the position, a draft price, a depth-chart slot and an injury tag. It does not give you a snap count, a target share, or a coach's plan for the fourth quarter of a blowout. So every gap on this page is a pricing observation, and none of them is a result, because nobody has played a down yet.
The Receipts Drawer
Breece Hall, 16.49 points, ninth of the backs here, and the crowd won't touch him until the 14th one is off the table. He's the buy on this page and he wasn't even on it a fortnight ago. There is a questionable tag on him, which is the first thing that can undo it, and a New York backfield that splits carries is the second. Count his first-quarter touches.
And check the inactives on Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty and Breece Hall ninety minutes before kickoff, because three of the fourteen men on this page carry a questionable tag and a tag beats a gap every time.
The full Week 1 board is at our fantasy rankings. The three-book spreads and totals behind every game-context figure above are at the odds board, and our own published Week 1 calls are at NFL picks. The track record page is where these calls will start resolving once Week 1 is played; nothing here is a settled result. The one game where the market itself has not settled on a favorite, Buffalo at Houston, is broken down at Books Can't Agree on These 10 NFL Games.
