Draft-day prices vs. Week 1 reality: where ADP and the projection board disagree most

Updated Sep 8, 2026 · Week 1 board.

Twenty-three players on this list moved a hundred picks or more between their August draft price and where the Week 1 projection board now has them. Two of those moves point the wrong way for owners who paid up in July, and twenty-one point the right way for anyone who kept a bench spot open.

I pulled every player whose draft slot (ADP) and Week 1 position rank disagree by a wide margin, then lined up the points next to the rank. Two piles came out of it: the names still worth a roster spot despite going undrafted in most rooms, and the early picks the board has quietly stopped believing in.

Why ADP and a Week 1 rank can tell two different stories

ADP (average draft position) is a memory of August. It is where fantasy drafters, on average, picked a player before a single snap of the season happened. The Week 1 projection board is not a memory. It is a forecast built from this week's depth charts, snap counts and injury tags.

Those two numbers agree most of the time. A receiver drafted in the second round usually still ranks like a second-round receiver in Week 1. When they split by more than seventy or eighty picks, something changed after the draft closed: a starter got hurt, a backup won a job, or a name everyone forgot about landed a bigger role than the room expected in July.

The bench names outscoring their draft price

These seven were drafted, on average, outside pick 135. The board now credits each of them with a real Week 1 role.

Rashod Bateman ranks 67th among receivers on a board that had him going after pick 157 in August. Wicks sits one spot behind him at 68th, on a Philadelphia offense most drafters weren't picturing him inside at all. Allen is the highest-priced name of the seven at ADP 137.2, and the board still rates his Indianapolis role high enough to project 7.19 points, its 69th receiver overall.

Legette is the outlier of the group. His own designation reads Questionable heading into Week 1, he went at ADP 190.1 (later than almost anyone on a fantasy roster), and the board credits him with 5.95 points as its 76th receiver. A late-week mark like that usually signals a Week 1 scratch. Here it signals a cheap add the board still expects to suit up.

Cooper Kupp is the name most readers will recognize, and he's the one that says the most about how little ADP knew in August. Seattle wasn't his team when most leagues drafted. The board has him projected for 6.21 points, 75th at the position, from a Seattle offense drafters in most rooms never priced in.

The early picks the board has already quit on

The flip side is smaller and uglier. These two went off boards inside the top 100 picks and now carry a projection of essentially nothing.

Henderson went at ADP 64.1, a mid-round pick in a full-size league, and the board now credits him for 0.01 points as its 95th-best running back. His own tag reads Questionable. The sportsbook side leaned the same direction: New England's Week 1 rushing prop for him fell from 28.5 yards to 18.5 yards between Saturday and Monday morning, a ten-yard cut landing in the exact window the board flattened his number.

Jacobs is the harder one to explain. He went at ADP 90.6 (a top-100 pick almost everywhere) and now projects 0 points, 96th among running backs. The board carries no injury tag against his name, just a role the Week 1 numbers no longer see. A show covering his own division noticed the shift before kickoff.

"Now the Josh Jacobs thing's a big blow to them, so maybe not as much anymore."

Go Birds!, Go Birds! Radio, Part 1: So, How Many Games Will The Eagles Win?, Sep 6, 2026 · listen.

That's an Eagles show talking about an opposing back, which tells you the drop-off reached outside his own fan base by Sep 6, two days before kickoff.

The zeros still parked on your bench

Four more names round out the list, all projecting close to zero, all carrying a tag that explains why.

Kamara and Charbonnet both carry a designation the board respects: Kamara is Questionable, Charbonnet is on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Neither is a surprise once you see the tag, and neither should still be starting for anyone in Week 1.

Beckham is the odd one here: undrafted at ADP 166.3, no injury tag against his name, and the board still parks him at only 1.46 points, 127th at the position. Nothing in this window explains that number beyond a crowded New York depth chart. Watch the box score before you spend a roster spot on the name alone.

The Receipts Drawer

My glossary note first: a value is a player you can add for free who the board now trusts more than the room that drafted him did. A fade is a player you already own whose price you should lower in your own head before kickoff, not a player you're told to bench outright.

My value, ranked first: Rashod Bateman at 67th among receivers off an ADP past pick 157. He costs a waiver claim, not a trade piece, and the board's 7.31-point projection is the highest of any player on this list who went undrafted in most rooms.

My second value: Cooper Kupp at 75th among receivers, 6.21 projected points, on an offense that didn't exist on anyone's draft board in August. Add him before someone else in your league reads a box score and does it first; check the Week 1 waiver wire before your next claim window closes.

My fade, and it's the whole reason this piece exists: Josh Jacobs. A top-100 pick projecting zero points with no injury tag attached is the rarest and worst kind of miss, because there's no designation to point to and wait out. If your league mate offers to trade him this week, that offer is the tell.

Frequently asked questions

What does ADP mean on this page? Average draft position: where fantasy drafters, on average, picked a player in August, before Week 1 rosters, depth charts and injury tags were set.

Why do some of these players project 0 points with no injury tag? The Week 1 projection board reads current depth charts and role, not just health. Josh Jacobs (ADP 90.6, 0 projected points) carries no tag in this window, which means the drop is about his role, not his body.

Is Cooper Kupp still worth a roster spot? The board projects him for 6.21 points as its 75th-ranked receiver from Seattle, a team he wasn't on when most leagues drafted. That's a low bar to clear for a free add, and he clears it.

Should I drop TreVeyon Henderson? Not yet. He's Questionable and the board credits him for 0.01 points, its 95th-best running back, but the same sportsbook line on him fell from 28.5 to 18.5 rushing yards over the same three days. Wait for New England's final Week 1 injury report before you cut him.

Where these numbers come from