Start DK Metcalf. Sit Garrett Wilson. The Week 1 lines explain why.
Week 1 WR Start Sit: Model Reads the Spreads
Our model starts DK Metcalf and sits Garrett Wilson in Week 1 because the spreads imply volume consensus rankings miss.
Seahawks at Titans — Metcalf and Smith-Njigba See Volume
Tennessee is a 3-to-4.5-point home favorite across 71 books . Dispersion (how much books disagree) is 1.5 points. Seattle trails often. Metcalf gets the deep looks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba works the slot on drives when trailing late.
Chiefs at Buccaneers — Worthy and Rice Benefit From Agreed Script
Kansas City is a 5.5-point road favorite with zero dispersion across 71 books . The market agrees: Chiefs score early, Bucs throw late. Both Kansas City receivers project for heavy target share. Consensus ranks them lower. The gap is the second-half pass rate Tampa Bay shows when trailing by two scores.
Packers at Broncos — Reed and Doubs Get Extra Possessions
Green Bay favored by 6 to 7.5 across 71 books . Dispersion is 1.5 points. Denver's defense forces quick drives. Jordan Love gets the ball back often. The spread implies two extra possessions for Green Bay's passing game.
Jets at Steelers — Wilson and Pickens Sit Until Line Settles
The line ranges from Pittsburgh -3.5 to New York +2.5 across 71 books — a 6-point dispersion . No agreed script means no agreed volume. Avoid both until the line settles.
Panthers at Jaguars — Thielen and Thomas Jr. Fade in Confusion
Jacksonville -2.5 to +1.5 across 71 books . Dispersion is 4 points. Carolina's offense is a black box. Jacksonville's pass rush could shorten the game. The spread confusion makes both sits.
Commanders at Lions — McLaurin and St. Brown Downgraded by Run-Heavy Script
Detroit -4.5 to -1.5 across 71 books . Dispersion is 3 points. The Lions run the ball when ahead. The Commanders play catch-up against a pass rush. St. Brown is still a start in most leagues, but not the locked WR6 consensus says.
Games Where 71 Books Agree — Cleanest Volume Reads
Zero dispersion (how much books disagree) gives the cleanest volume reads.
- Falcons at Colts (-3.5, 0 dispersion) — Indianapolis controls pace. Atlanta throws to keep up. Drake London sees volume.
- Bills at Browns (-3, 0 dispersion) — Buffalo's passing game stays on schedule. Cleveland funnels targets to the slot. Khalil Shakir benefits.
- Chiefs at Buccaneers (-5.5, 0 dispersion) — Already covered. The agreement makes the projection durable.
- Cowboys at Cardinals (-1.5, 0 dispersion) — Tiny spread, high total implied. CeeDee Lamb sees 10+ targets in a shootout script.
Three Games With Dispersion ≥ 3 Points — Volume Variance Swamps Talent
In each, the market cannot agree on the winner, let alone the script. Our model penalizes WR projections in these games because volume variance swamps talent.
| Game | Spread Range | Dispersion | WRs to Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets @ Steelers | -3.5 to +2.5 | 6.0 | Wilson, Pickens |
| Panthers @ Jaguars | -2.5 to +1.5 | 4.0 | Thielen, Thomas Jr. |
| Commanders @ Lions | -4.5 to -1.5 | 3.0 | McLaurin, St. Brown (downgrade only) |
What Would Change Our Mind
If the Jets-Steelers line collapses to a consensus -3 or tighter by kickoff, Wilson returns to start consideration. If the Commanders-Lions spread sharpens to -3.5 or lower with reduced dispersion, St. Brown reclaims his consensus slot. Watch the 71-book consensus at /odds/nfl — when the dispersion drops below 1.5, the volume floor firms up.
Projections update through kickoff. Check the live start/sit tool for the current numbers. See our WR rankings, weekly projections, and the WR primer for deeper context. Track our historical accuracy at /track-record.
DFS projected ROI vs ownership %
Projected GPP ROI multiplier vs projected ownership across simulated lineups. Sub-10% leverage plays compound when they hit; chalk plays cap your upside even when the projection is dead-on.
Prop OVER hit rate vs line distance from median
Empirical hit rate of OVER bets as the prop line moves away from the player projection median, measured in standard deviations. A line set 1sd below the median hits ~84% of the time — but books price the juice to match.
