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▲-7 → -6 (+1) over 24 captures ATL @ GB spread -7 → -6■ house House backtest last 10: 6–4 · 90-day all-market 55.3% (n=8163) · 21h ago● Wire Sources: Colts' Pierce out weeks; hoping for return midseason● Wire Giants QB Jaxson Dart exits MNF game vs. Rams with knee injury● Wire Seahawks plan to have Sam Darnold back at practice Wednesday
Access: Anonymous access. Content follows.

Insights

Receipts first. Every number traces to a graded row.

The same receipts query feeds Picks, Insights and the Sunday digest — it can never disagree with itself.

Explore → Data

Saved views stay here; self-service exploration lives with Sharkai + Data.

Pulsing edge = opens more detail

Explore moved to Sharkai + Data (Grant 08-22)

This tab is a link-out and saved-view list; it does not rebuild the explorer here.

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Preset views

Dimensions: models · modules (not yet) · lenses · pundits · angles · sport · market · week · book · regime (not yet). Measures: record · ROI · $ at stake (not yet) · CLV · Brier · calibration gap · lift. (8/10 dimensions and 6/7 measures are queryable today.)

Available state: sport · model · season · week · chart specification.

What you’ll see

Access and data readiness

What this page can show you about access, sample size, grading freshness and receipt consistency.

Access state

Anon

Signed out

Receipts + Leaderboard public (that's the marketing); Explore links to Data + saved views · this viewer: signed out

Access state

Trial · paid

Signed out

Explore link-out + saved views + share cards; Me · not this viewer: signed out — the tier is not in this page's payload, so no tier is claimed

Query state

Cold query

2,480 graded plays

receipts query · all-time window · n=2,480 · as of Sep 21, 12:04 AM ET

Sample health

Small n

2 / 4 rows under threshold

insights_widgets · current bake · n=4 widget rows · cells under 50 plays grey with the n; never hidden— lens-hit n=0, calibration-curve n=0

Grading window

Week not graded

50 upcoming games

loadGames · 50-game upcoming window · n=50 considered· last graded Sep 21, 12:04 AM ET

Integrity

Disagreement guard

Agrees

receipts_summary aggregate vs per-market sum · all-time window · n=2,480 · checked this render · last graded Sep 21, 12:04 AM ET

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The graded field

Insights · real claim grader

The graded field: the market, mined

Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.

public.pundit_claim_grades public.pundit_claims · transcript-backed public.pundits.kind=real correct + wrong denominator

15 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window · small n is labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.

Claims graded as of Sep 20, 4:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Aug 26, 12:10 PM ET

Pundit claim grading

newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger

ClaimSourceVerdict
“I'm gonna pick the Dolphins all the way.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I think that they are more cohesive and two, just more talented than the Jaguars.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong
“I think that they are more cohesive and two, just more talented than the Jaguars.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“The Colts have not been doing very good at all.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29correct
“but I'm still gonna pick the Ravens.”Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29wrong

Pundit ledger

Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.

pundit_claim_grades pundit_claims · transcript evidence pundits.kind=real
SourceW-LHit %nWindowVerdict
Ben Solak (The Football Show) 9-660.0%15all-timeunproven

15 decided grades across 1 real sources · all-time window

Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.

Gasbag quadrant

More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.

pundit_claim_grades correct + wrong only all-time
Pundit sample size versus hit rateZero-based scatter of provenance-clean decided claims. The vertical gate is n=20 and the horizontal gate is a 45 percent hit rate.n=20 gate45% hitpromisingBen Solak (The Football Show): 9-6, 60.0%, n=15Ben Solak (The Football Show)0400%100%graded claims (x-axis starts at 0)hit rate

Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.