This payload cannot update the free-bet conversion guide. It contains no sportsbook offer, no eligible market, no pair of prices, and no book-specific terms. Those are not optional details. They are the inputs that determine whether a conversion can be calculated at all.
The honest result is an empty analysis with a named cause: the feed is about players, not promotions or prices. A conversion page that fills that gap with a generic example would look complete while answering a question the data never asked. This rebuild does the opposite. It keeps the guide intact and refuses to manufacture the missing market.
Free-bet conversion starts with the offer contract
Before comparing prices, the bettor needs to know what the promotion actually allows. Is the stake returned? Which markets qualify? Is there a minimum price, an expiration rule, or a maximum conversion amount? The current payload answers none of those questions. Without the offer contract, even a real sportsbook line would be insufficient because the value of the free-bet leg depends on the promotion’s terms.
The free-bet conversion guide remains the right place for the method. This article is only a data check. The method requires an eligible offer and opposing prices on the same market. The supplied rows do not describe either side of that transaction.
That distinction protects the reader from a common content trick: taking a timeless formula and pretending a fresh data feed validated it. A formula can remain valid while the current payload is useless for applying it. “No update” is the correct conclusion when the required inputs never arrived.
The cited numbers belong to a different story
The source rows do contain real football statistics. Christian McCaffrey is described as fantasy’s top scorer after matching a career high with 413 touches . Jack Campbell is described as finishing second in the league with 176 tackles and adding five sacks .
Those facts should be preserved because they are supported. They should also be quarantined from the conversion calculation. Touches and tackles do not identify an eligible free-bet offer, an opposing market, a book price, or a promotion rule. They cannot establish a hedge, estimate a conversion percentage, or tell a bettor which side to place with cash.
This is where provenance earns its keep. A cited number is not automatically relevant just because it is real. The source must support the job assigned to the number. The two mention rows support player-season context. They do not support sportsbook execution.
What the missing comparison must look like
A publishable conversion check needs both legs to refer to the same event and market. Each price needs a book, a capture time, and enough detail to verify that it was available under the promotion’s rules. The analysis then has to state whether the free stake is returned and how settlement works. Only after those fields are fixed can the conversion be calculated.
The vig and hold guide explains why the offered prices matter. The EV tool can compare real prices when they exist. Neither surface can recover an offer that never entered the feed, and neither should silently substitute a player statistic for a sportsbook term.
There is also no basis here for saying the market is tight, wide, efficient, or inefficient. Those claims require actual prices, preferably from multiple books captured close enough together to be comparable. The payload contains no such rows. The absence should be visible, not buried under an unrelated evidence ledger.
Why a made-up worked example would be worse than silence
A synthetic pair of prices can teach arithmetic, but this work order requires real data on the user surface. More importantly, an invented example on a dated rebuild can be mistaken for an available promotion. That creates the appearance of actionability without the possibility of execution.
The safer editorial choice is to describe the contract without filling in fictional values. The reader learns which fields matter and why the calculation stopped. When live rows arrive, the same structure can be populated with real terms and checked against the book.
This page also makes no performance claim. There is no ATS record, conversion history, or settled promotion sample in the supplied data. Any record would need a win-loss form where relevant, a percentage, a defined window, and a sample size. None is available here.
Settlement rules deserve their own check. A promotion can treat pushes, voids, abandoned events, and partial cash-outs differently from an ordinary wager. Those terms affect whether the proposed hedge behaves as expected. They also determine what evidence belongs in the later grade. A conversion estimate that ignores settlement can be mathematically neat and operationally wrong.
The final record should preserve the offered terms and both executed prices, not merely the calculated conversion. That lets a reviewer distinguish model error from execution slippage or a promotion rule that changed the payout. This payload has no such execution record, so the rebuild cannot claim that an earlier method succeeded or failed.
The rebuild reopens when the feed carries the market
The cure is specific: provide at least one eligible free-bet offer and a timestamped pair of opposing prices for the same market, with the promotion terms attached. Then the conversion guide can be applied to real inputs and the result can be audited.
Until that payload exists, the track record has nothing new to grade and the guide has nothing new to calculate. The player statistics remain true in their own lane. The conversion analysis remains empty in this one. Keeping those lanes separate is the entire quality improvement. The next editor should be able to see immediately whether the missing item is the promotion contract, the market pair, or the execution record. Naming the gap also protects the next rebuild. A different feed should not be treated as an answer until it carries the offer contract, paired prices, and execution record a reader could actually audit, including the settlement rules that govern both legs.
Expected value from graded outcomes
Expected-value cells render only when a verified source binds observed win outcomes to the price paid for the same bets.
Breakeven win rate at recorded American prices
Breakeven probability is calculated only from American prices that were actually captured in the odds-history table.
