The August 22 consensus lines show NFL preseason home spreads from -1.5 to -5.5 and college home spreads to -54.5, every game from just one book.
What Zachary Rymer's August 22 slate looks like in consensus data
The consensus captures 12 NFL preseason games and 18 college games on August 22. Each game has a single-book line and zero dispersion by definition .
NFL preseason home spreads cluster near key numbers
Detroit is a -1.5 home favorite over Washington .
Indianapolis is a -3.5 home favorite over Atlanta .
Cleveland is a -2.5 home favorite over Buffalo .
Minnesota is a -3.5 home favorite over Baltimore .
Miami is a +3 home underdog against the New York Giants .
The Los Angeles Rams are a +1.5 home underdog against New Orleans .
Cincinnati is a +1.5 home underdog against Chicago .
New England is a +1.5 home underdog against Philadelphia .
Tampa Bay is a -5.5 home favorite over Kansas City .
Arizona is a -1.5 home favorite over Dallas .
Tennessee is a -4.5 home favorite over Seattle .
College spreads stretch from -5.5 to -54.5
TCU is a -7.5 to -8 home favorite over North Carolina .
USC is a -38 to -38.5 home favorite over San Jose State .
Virginia is a -5.5 to -6 home favorite over NC State .
North Dakota State is a -7 home favorite over Jacksonville State .
Eastern Michigan is a -8.5 to -9.5 home favorite over Sacramento State .
Florida State is a -31 to -31.5 home favorite over New Mexico State .
Rutgers is a -30.5 home favorite over Massachusetts .
Wake Forest is a -23.5 home favorite over Akron .
Buffalo is a -24.5 home favorite over UAlbany .
Kennesaw State is a -22.5 home favorite over West Georgia .
Delaware is a -28.5 home favorite over Merrimack .
Minnesota is a -43.5 home favorite over Eastern Illinois .
UCF is a -41.5 home favorite over Bethune-Cookman .
Georgia Tech is a -6.5 to -7 home favorite over Colorado .
Missouri is a -54.5 home favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff .
Utah is a -33.5 home favorite over Idaho .
Stanford is a -5.5 home favorite over Hawaii .
UNLV is a -5.5 home favorite over Memphis .
Single-book lines will move as more books open
Zero dispersion with one book is trivial — it means no other books have posted yet .
The NFL preseason lines at -1.5, -2.5, -3.5 will shift when more books post.
The college blowouts at -30.5 and beyond are less likely to move far, but they are still single-book samples.
Our NFL picks feed and college football picks feed update as consensus builds.
How to use consensus data alongside writer previews
Read a column for the story — why the quarterback rotation matters, which rookie gets starting practice reps, what the coach said about preseason philosophy.
Then check our NFL preseason sharp patterns or how NFL spreads work to see the consensus line, our model line, and the CLV gap (closing line value — beating the final number) for that exact game.
If the writer's lean matches our model and the CLV is positive, you have alignment.
If the lean fights the consensus and the CLV is negative, you have a decision to make.
The writer frames the angle. The market prices the risk. Our data shows you both.
What would change our mind
If Missouri opens at -54.5 and closes at -50 or lower, the market sees less dominance than the single book priced.
If Tampa Bay moves from -5.5 to -3 or lower before kickoff, sharp money disagrees with the lone book.
Either move would flip the take from "consensus is settled" to "market is debating."
Bet responsibly — set limits, never chase losses.
NFL ATS cover-margin distribution
Distribution of (final margin − closing spread) across an NFL season. Roughly normal with mean ≈ 0 and standard deviation ≈ 13 points, which is why most ATS edges live in the ±1.5 point window. Chart ELO standings winner: free-llm-a on team-summary::graded-record (ELO 1516, artifacts/chart-elo/standings.json).
NFL ATS cover-margin distribution
Distribution of (final margin − closing spread) across an NFL season. Roughly normal with mean ≈ 0 and standard deviation ≈ 13 points, which is why most ATS edges live in the ±1.5 point window.
