Methodology
- Record open, bet, current, and close prices from the same market type.
- Convert odds to implied probability before comparing lines across formats.
- Segment by sport, market, liquidity, creator, and timing window.
- Pair CLV with bet result, stake, and notes so variance does not hide process issues.
Example output
CLV audit example
A simple tracking table for evaluating price quality over time.
| Bet timing | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Market open | +128 | 43.86% |
| Bet placed | +120 | 45.45% |
| Three hours later | +112 | 47.17% |
| Close | +105 | 48.78% |
The example captures positive CLV, but the single result still remains uncertain.
How to calculate CLV
Compare the price you took to the final efficient market price. The cleanest workflow converts both prices into implied probabilities, then calculates the difference after removing obvious pushes or voids.
- American +120 is 45.45% implied probability before vig adjustment
- American +105 is 48.78% implied probability before vig adjustment
- If you bet +120 and it closes +105, you captured a better number
- Track both percentage-point movement and raw odds movement
Avoid false confidence
CLV is not a guarantee of profit on any bet or short sample. Small prop markets, stale books, and low-limit prices can distort the signal.
- Use market-specific benchmarks instead of one blended CLV score
- Flag low-liquidity alt lines and promotional boosts separately
- Review stale-line wins and losses as operational issues
- Compare creator picks to close by release time
Responsible-use note
Analytics should support disciplined decision-making, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet only where legal, never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and use limits before volume increases.
FAQ
Is CLV more important than win rate?
CLV is often more useful for judging process because it measures price quality. Win rate still matters, but it can be distorted by odds level and variance.
Can a bettor lose while having positive CLV?
Yes. Positive CLV can coexist with short-term losses. It is a long-run process indicator, not a guarantee.
Should props and sides use the same CLV benchmark?
No. Props, sides, totals, derivatives, and alt lines have different liquidity and movement behavior, so they should be segmented.