public-high-play-dog-backdoor-spread-spread
NFL · custom
public-high-play-dog-backdoor-spread-spread-9901a794 Track record is temporarily unavailable.
Closing-line record unavailable.
A model built on the thesis that Underdogs in high lagged play-volume and high lagged pass-rate games cover more often when they are not at a lagged offensive EPA disadvantage, because game environment preserves late scoring and backdoor cover optionality; bet the underdog against the spread. Kill criterion: refute if out-of-sample ATS is at or below 0.500 or ROI is negative after min_n >= 220.; trained with elastic net and fixed 1u staking, sliced to all games games, will beat the closing spread on a held-out eval window. Kill criterion: ROI below 0 vs the close after 200 graded bets.
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Backtest record
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0-0 on 0 graded games
ATS win rate vs the original
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Lens
Balanced
Every graded game.
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Draft tracking
No future draft picks are declared in this model's latest version.
ROI equity curve
No settled per-bet backtest data is available for this model yet.
Tune it
Pick a dial to see how tuning this model changes its win rate on the same graded games.
Model calibration
10 probability bins from settled public-model picks. The diagonal is perfect calibration.
No settled public-model confidence results match these filters yet.
CLV history is temporarily unavailable.
Inputs
No feature slugs declared on this card.
Assumptions
- A model built on the thesis that Underdogs in high lagged play-volume and high lagged pass-rate games cover more often when they are not at a lagged offensive EPA disadvantage, because game environment preserves late scoring and backdoor cover optionality; bet the underdog against the spread. Kill criterion: refute if out-of-sample ATS is at or below 0.500 or ROI is negative after min_n >= 220.; trained with elastic net and fixed 1u staking, sliced to all games games, will beat the closing spread on a held-out eval window. Kill criterion: ROI below 0 vs the close after 200 graded bets.
Known limitations
- Auto-generated by nflbets Lab from grind ledger evidence; inspect benchmark artifacts before making supported thesis claims.
Version history
- v1.0.0 Jul 5, 2026
Lineage
No ancestors or forks. This model stands alone — yet.
Discussion
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