post-bye-tempo-spike-spread
NFL · custom
post-bye-tempo-spike-spread-673d1801 Track record is temporarily unavailable.
Closing-line record unavailable.
A model built on the thesis that Teams that boost their offensive tempo by at least 10% compared to season average in the first game after a bye week cover the spread more than 55% of the time, indicating the market understates their advantage.; trained with quantile xgboost and quarter kelly staking, sliced to all games games, will beat the closing spread on a held-out eval window. Kill criterion: ROI below 0 vs the close after 200 graded bets.
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Backtest record
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0-0 on 0 graded games
ATS win rate vs the original
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Not enough graded games yet — 0 of the 10 this comparison needs.
Lens
Balanced
Every graded game.
See the full run
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Draft tracking
No future draft picks are declared in this model's latest version.
ROI equity curve
No settled per-bet backtest data is available for this model yet.
Tune it
Pick a dial to see how tuning this model changes its win rate on the same graded games.
Model calibration
10 probability bins from settled public-model picks. The diagonal is perfect calibration.
No settled public-model confidence results match these filters yet.
CLV history is temporarily unavailable.
Inputs
No feature slugs declared on this card.
Assumptions
- A model built on the thesis that Teams that boost their offensive tempo by at least 10% compared to season average in the first game after a bye week cover the spread more than 55% of the time, indicating the market understates their advantage.; trained with quantile xgboost and quarter kelly staking, sliced to all games games, will beat the closing spread on a held-out eval window. Kill criterion: ROI below 0 vs the close after 200 graded bets.
Known limitations
- Auto-generated by nflbets Lab from grind ledger evidence; inspect benchmark artifacts before making supported thesis claims.
Version history
- v1.0.0 Jul 5, 2026
Lineage
No ancestors or forks. This model stands alone — yet.
Discussion
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