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$1 first week
  • SAMPLE · Small sample — 14 graded decisions so far; treat as directional until 100+.
  • CALIB · Calibration gap 16.2 points exceeds the 3-point guardrail.
nfl v1.0.0

House NFL Bridge - Preseason Prior (Elo) - Moneyline

NFL · custom

Projection · last 30 days · grading-batch time · n=36 25-11 (69.4% ATS) · last 30 days · grading-batch time · n=36 beat the closing line 58% of the time Full history: 25-11 (69.4% ATS) · window unlabeled · n=36
Backtest only — inferred publish pending. 25-11 (69.4% ATS) · n=36

Avg CLV +0.9

Week-1 preseason bridge prior (moneyline): 2025-season-close Elo ratings (538-style walk-forward, home-field advantage 65, 400-point logistic z-scale, regressed 1/3 toward the 1505 mean for the offseason) predict the home-team win probability for every 2026 week-1 game before any 2026 snap is played. Reviewed leakage-free backtest 2019-2025 (n=1954 games): straight-up win-prediction rate 62.74% -- disclosed here exactly as measured, not as a demonstrated betting edge. Does not yet weight roster/coaching turnover into the published number (see scripts/bridge/serve-preseason-prior.py header for the follow-up this needs). Does not serve a total market (no honest total signal exists in this codebase -- see E9.5a.1).

0 tailing
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Test games

The graded games behind this model's W-L-P.

36 graded test games

36 graded; 9 still ungraded. Ungraded predictions are not mixed into the W-L-P below.

25-11 (69.4% ATS) · window unlabeled · n=36 · as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_05_SF_SEA

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_05_IND_PIT

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_05_DEN_LAC

away

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_05_LV_NE

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_05_MIN_NO

away

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_05_PHI_JAX

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 12, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC

2026_04_ATL_NO

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 6, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

2026_04_DET_CAR

away

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 5, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC

2026_04_LAC_SEA

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 5, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC

2026_04_KC_LV

away

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 5, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC

2026_04_DEN_SF

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 5, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC

2026_04_MIA_MIN

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 4, 2026, 11:04 PM UTC

2026_04_ARI_NYG

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 4, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC

2026_04_NE_BUF

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 4, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC

2026_04_TEN_BAL

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 4, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC

2026_04_DAL_HOU

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 4, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC

2026_04_NYJ_CHI

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Oct 4, 2026, 8:04 PM UTC

2026_03_PHI_CHI

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 29, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

2026_03_CIN_PIT

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 27, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC

2026_03_TEN_NYG

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 27, 2026, 8:04 PM UTC

2026_01_NO_DET

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_MIA_LV

away

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_BAL_IND

away

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_BUF_HOU

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_DAL_NYG

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_SF_LA

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_NE_SEA

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_TB_CIN

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_GB_MIN

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_ARI_LAC

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_WAS_PHI

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_DEN_KC

away

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_ATL_PIT

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_CLE_JAX

home

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_NYJ_TEN

home

Loss

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

2026_01_CHI_CAR

away

Win

Line not recorded · basis not recorded

As of grading batch Sep 15, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

Season heat

Weekly wins and losses by game date. Gray weeks had no decisions.

live pregame n=0 model scheduled game dates
No dated graded decisions in this window.

Decisive live-pregame outcomes grouped by scheduled game date; pushes and unavailable dates are excluded.

Receipts

36 loaded · 36 qualifying settled rows

Settled predictions for House NFL Bridge - Preseason Prior (Elo) - Moneyline
Grading batchMarketGameResultCLV
Oct 12, 2026game_moneyline2026_05_SF_SEAloss-5.0
Oct 12, 2026game_moneyline2026_05_IND_PITwin0.0
Oct 12, 2026game_moneyline2026_05_DEN_LACwin+12.0
Oct 12, 2026game_moneyline2026_05_LV_NEwin-7.0
Oct 12, 2026game_moneyline2026_05_MIN_NOwin+7.0
Oct 12, 2026game_moneyline2026_05_PHI_JAXwin+10.0
Oct 6, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_ATL_NOloss-20.0
Oct 5, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_DET_CARloss+10.0
Oct 5, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_LAC_SEAwin-30.0
Oct 5, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_KC_LVwin0.0
Oct 5, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_DEN_SFwin+8.0
Oct 4, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_MIA_MINwin+30.0
Oct 4, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_ARI_NYGwin+6.0
Oct 4, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_NE_BUFloss+16.0
Oct 4, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_TEN_BALwin-100.0
Oct 4, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_DAL_HOUloss+5.0
Oct 4, 2026game_moneyline2026_04_NYJ_CHIwin-4.0
Sep 29, 2026game_moneyline2026_03_PHI_CHIwin0.0
Sep 27, 2026game_moneyline2026_03_CIN_PITwin+11.0
Sep 27, 2026game_moneyline2026_03_TEN_NYGwin-1.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_NO_DETwin+5.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_MIA_LVloss+18.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_BAL_INDwin-18.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_BUF_HOUloss+6.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_DAL_NYGwin+2.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_SF_LAloss+10.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_NE_SEAwin-24.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_TB_CINwin0.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_GB_MINwin+4.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_ARI_LACloss-145.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_WAS_PHIwin+25.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_DEN_KCloss+14.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_ATL_PITwin+122.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_CLE_JAXwin+70.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_NYJ_TENloss-12.0
Sep 15, 2026game_moneyline2026_01_CHI_CARwin+9.0

End of settled ledger.

⑂ Remix this model

Turn knobs to put your own spin on House NFL Bridge - Preseason Prior (Elo) - Moneyline. Every change simulates against the parent’s real graded nfl games; it does not create a child record.

Try it free

Parent-record simulation

0.0%

25-11 on 36 graded games

ATS win rate vs the original

—

Same games as the original — turn a dial to compare.

Lens

Balanced

Every graded game.

Lens
Market slice
Train window
Engine
Features

Proof before save

  1. 1. Parent release: unavailable — saving is disabled
  2. 2. Requested changes: none yet
  3. 3. Simulation: 36 parent graded rows match; this is not child performance.
  4. 4. Child result: unavailable until the saved draft is trained and evaluated.

See the full run

You're seeing the headline record, the last 10 graded games and the sparkline. Unlock every graded game, the per-slice record, closing-line proof and your remix's upcoming picks with Pro — just $1 first week.

Last 10 graded games
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ win
  • Game 2026_01_ loss
  • Game 2026_01_ win
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Draft tracking

No future draft picks are declared in this model's latest version.

Tune it

Pick a dial to see how tuning this model changes its win rate on the same graded games.

No settled calibration samples are available for this model yet. Return after picks settle.
No distribution yet — no graded samples in this window.
CLV river 36 settled picks · cumulative +0.3 line-value units
CLV river: 36 settled picks with captured closing-line values, cumulative line value +0.3 line-value units, ordered oldest to newest.Cumulative line value +0.3 after 36 settled picksoldestnewest

Inputs

  • team_power_ratings_bridge.rating

Version history

No immutable versions exist yet. Each release appears here when the owner publishes it.

Lineage

No ancestors or forks. This model stands alone — yet.