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nfl v1.0.0

epa-spread-edge

NFL · custom

Unverified
v×1
Backtest 51.2% ATS · n=1391, training backtest Backfill · training backtest · n=1,391

Training backtest published Jul 5, 2026

0 forward picks — record starts at kickoff

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Teams whose rolling 4-week EPA/play advantage (off+def) diverges from the spread line signal mispriced lines; logistic classifier trained walk-forward on real ATS outcomes should identify consistent edge above 52.4%.

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Test games

The graded games behind this model's W-L-P.

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Season heat

Weekly wins and losses by game date. Gray weeks had no decisions.

live pregame n=0 model scheduled game dates
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Decisive live-pregame outcomes grouped by scheduled game date; pushes and unavailable dates are excluded.

Receipts

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Lens

Balanced

Every graded game.

Lens
Market slice
Train window
Engine

Proof before save

  1. 1. Parent release: v1.0.0 · version ecfce56e-653d-4aa5-bb6a-c2c86f499dd2 · released 2026-07-05T21:14:50.221+00:00
  2. 2. Requested changes: none yet
  3. 3. Simulation: No real simulated result is available for this request.
  4. 4. Child result: unavailable until the saved draft is trained and evaluated.
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Draft tracking

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Inputs

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Assumptions

  • Teams whose rolling 4-week EPA/play advantage (off+def) diverges from the spread line signal mispriced lines; logistic classifier trained walk-forward on real ATS outcomes should identify consistent edge above 52.4%.

Known limitations

  • Auto-generated by nflbets Lab from grind ledger evidence; inspect benchmark artifacts before making supported thesis claims.

Version history

  1. v1.0.0 · published Released Jul 5, 2026

Lineage

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