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NBA Fantasy Rankings — Week 1

REDRAFT scoring. Free rankings, our model projections.

How to read the rankings

These rankings use the same projection set as the fantasy tools, grouped by position so you can move quickly from a broad waiver or lineup question to a specific player comparison. The current view is week 1 with REDRAFT scoring.

NBA ranking movement
Floor
7.9
Projection
12.7
Ceiling
18.0

Example projection range for the current PG rankings view.

#PlayerTeamProj
1PHI12.7

NBA rankings FAQ

How are these tiers computed?

Players are clustered with a heteroscedastic Gaussian Mixture Model. Each player has a projection (μ) and a derived uncertainty (σ) from the spread of their 3-, 5-, and 10-game rolling averages. The model groups players with overlapping distributions into the same tier, and BIC picks the number of tiers automatically. This is the same idea Boris Chen popularized for fantasy football rankings, adapted for per-player rolling-window data.

What does the edge score mean?

It is the ratio of a player’s posterior probability for their assigned tier vs. the next-best tier. ≥ 3 means tier lock, < 1.5 means tier bubble — a player who could plausibly drop or rise a tier.

How do I use the tier board during a draft?

Click any card to mark a player drafted; they will be struck through and persist across reloads on your device. Toggle to "Whole board" to see all positions side-by-side. Use the K slider to make tiers tighter or looser per position.

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