Updated Oct 27, 2026
Updated Oct 27. The projection row was recorded Oct 26; the book prices were read Oct 26 and Oct 27.
The Shark Snip projection for New England at Miami was logged on Oct 26 with the Dolphins at -5.7 on the spread. The same row recorded the spread it was measured against as -7, which leaves a gap of 1.3 points. The desk reads that gap as a modest disagreement with the market, not a verdict on the game.
The Patriots travel to Miami for a game scheduled Nov 1. The rest of this note covers what the board looked like on Oct 27, how far the books sit from each other, and what a gap of this size does and does not tell a bettor.
What the board showed on Oct 27
The odds snapshot, last fetched Oct 27, lists eleven books with prices on this game. New England is the favorite everywhere. The posted spread sits at one of two numbers: seven points or seven and a half.
DraftKings priced the Patriots at -7.5 at -105, with Miami at 7.5 and -115. Bovada, also read Oct 27, listed New England at -7 and -115, with Miami at 7 and -105.
Pinnacle, read Oct 26, had the Patriots at -7 at -113 and Miami at 7 at -101. BetMGM, same date, showed the Patriots at -7 and -115, with Miami at 7 and -102.
The pattern is a half-point split. Books at seven price the Dolphins side near even money. Books at seven and a half price the Patriots side near even money. That split matters because the projection of -5.7 sits on the Miami side of both numbers.
The spread, book by book
The table lists the spread each book showed for the Dolphins, with the price attached. Dates are the last-update dates recorded on each book's entry.
| Book | Read | Dolphins spread | Dolphins price |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Oct 27 | 7.5 | -115 |
| Bovada | Oct 27 | 7 | -105 |
| FanDuel | Oct 26 | 7.5 | -115 |
| BetRivers | Oct 26 | 7.5 | -113 |
| LowVig.ag | Oct 26 | 7.5 | -117 |
| Pinnacle | Oct 26 | 7 | -101 |
| BetMGM | Oct 26 | 7 | -102 |
| Fanatics | Oct 26 | 7 | -105 |
Three more books carried the split. BetUS, read Oct 26, had the Dolphins at 7.5 and -115. MyBookie.ag and BetOnline.ag both listed Miami at 7.5 and -120, with the Patriots side at 100 at both.
The Receipts Drawer
The desk's rule is that every figure traces to a recorded row. These are the rows behind this note.
The pick row, logged Oct 26, records the spread of -7, the projected value of -5.7 and the edge of 1.3. The edge is the distance between the two, in points on the spread, and nothing more. The row carries no stated sample size or interval, so the desk does not attach one.
The line-watch rows, last seen Oct 26, track Fanatics specifically. The Dolphins spread was held at 7 with a price of -105. The Patriots side was held at -7 with a price of -115. The total at Fanatics was tracked at 44.5 on both sides, each at -110.
The same watcher recorded the moneyline at Fanatics: the Patriots at -375 and the Dolphins at 290. Those prices match the BetMGM moneyline read the same day, which showed 290 on Miami and -375 on New England.
One caution on provenance. The pick row's comparison spread of -7 is the number several books posted, and the books at seven and a half sit another half point away. The gap against those books would be larger than the recorded edge, but that figure is not a recorded value, so the desk does not print it.
What a gap of this size means for a bettor
A gap of 1.3 points is small. NFL margins land on a wide spread of outcomes, so a projection a point or so off the market reads as a mild lean, not a mismatch. The recorded numbers give no basis for calling the edge reliable, and the desk does not.
The practical content is in the direction and in the price. The projection says Miami loses by less than the market expects. That points toward the Dolphins side of the spread, and it is more attractive at seven than at seven and a half. In this snapshot the cheapest recorded Dolphins price at seven came from Pinnacle at -101, then BetMGM at -102. At seven and a half the cheapest Miami price was -113 at BetRivers.
That tradeoff is the live question: take the extra half point on the Dolphins side and pay for it in price, or take the shorter number and keep the price near even. The data here does not pick the answer. It shows only that the books disagree by half a point and that the projection sits on the Miami side of both.
The totals market is quiet by comparison. Most books posted 44.5, with prices clustered around -110. DraftKings sat a touch off that at -108 on the over and -112 on the under. Nothing in the recorded rows ties the spread gap to the total.
Limits and what to watch next
The recorded edge comes from one projection row. The packet holds no historical accuracy figure for this projection type, so the desk makes no claim about how often gaps of this size have paid off. That record is the missing piece, and the desk will not guess at it.
The board is also moving. DraftKings and Bovada were read Oct 27, while most other books were last read Oct 26, so the split between seven and seven and a half may narrow or widen before the Nov 1 kickoff. A move of the market toward the projection would shrink the gap. A move away would widen it.
Watch two things. First, whether the books at seven hold that number or move to seven and a half. Second, whether the price on Miami at seven stays near even. The line-watch rows exist to flag exactly that kind of change, and the desk will update this note when the recorded numbers move.
For background on how the desk builds and checks projections, see how Shark Snip works.
