Updated Oct 25, 2026: the Model Desk logged a spread gap for Indianapolis at Jacksonville, and the six listed books were refreshed the same day.
The Model Desk's spread read on Indianapolis at Jacksonville, recorded Oct 25, carries a line of 7, a projected value of 10.1 and a gap of 3.1. The side recorded is the home team, Jacksonville. A separate moneyline row for the same game, also logged Oct 25, shows a projected value of 0.810869 and an edge of 0.310869. Both rows point the same direction: the desk's numbers like Jacksonville more than the board does.
A gap is a distance between a projection and a price. It is not a result. The rest of this report lays out what the books show, where they disagree with each other, what the Colts' news cycle adds, and what the reader should check before acting on any of it.
The board: six books, one narrow band
The odds snapshot, last updated Oct 25, lists Jacksonville Jaguars at home and Indianapolis Colts on the road, with kickoff on Nov 1. Six books carry the game. They do not agree on the number, and the disagreement is worth reading before any projection is.
BetUS lists Indianapolis at 7 at a price of 100 and Jacksonville at -7 at -120. BetOnline.ag matches that: Jacksonville -7 at -120, Indianapolis 7 at 100. LowVig.ag also hangs the number at -7 for Jacksonville, but at a cheaper -116, with Indianapolis paying 105.
FanDuel, BetRivers and DraftKings sit half a point higher. FanDuel has Jacksonville at -7.5 for -104 and Indianapolis at 7.5 for -118. BetRivers lists Jacksonville -7.5 at -106 and Indianapolis 7.5 at -115. DraftKings posts -7.5 and 7.5, both at -110.
The pattern is plain. Three books hold the favorite at a touchdown, and three have moved to a touchdown and a half. The books that kept the lower number charge more to back Jacksonville. The books on the higher number charge less. The desk's projected value of 10.1 sits beyond every posted spread in the table.
The Receipts Drawer
Every figure below is read straight from the rows cited in this report. Nothing is rounded, summed or derived.
| Book | Jacksonville spread | Jacksonville price | Indianapolis spread | Indianapolis price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS | -7 | -120 | 7 | 100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 | -120 | 7 | 100 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 | -116 | 7 | 105 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 | -104 | 7.5 | -118 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 | -106 | 7.5 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 | -110 | 7.5 | -110 |
The desk's own rows, both stamped Oct 25, read as follows. The spread row records a line of 7, a projected value of 10.1 and an edge of 3.1. The moneyline row records a projected value of 0.810869 and an edge of 0.310869.
One caution on reading the spread row. Its recorded line is 7, which matches the three books at the lower number. Against the three books at 7.5, the distance between the desk's projection and the posted spread is a different size than the recorded gap. This report does not calculate that second figure, because the packet does not record it.
Colts news around the game
Three items in the Oct 25 news feed touch Indianapolis. The most recent is a recap: the Vikings defense held Daniel Jones and the Colts to a ten-point night in a loss, with Harrison Smith sealing it with an interception, according to a national outlet's recap logged Oct 25. That is a result from the Colts' previous game, and it frames how they arrive in Jacksonville.
Two earlier items concern the roster and front office. A national outlet reported Oct 25 that the Colts are expected to field trade inquiries on star players including Jonathan Taylor, DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson as the NFL trade deadline looms. Another report, also Oct 25, said the Colts have not approached Peyton Manning about their vacant general manager job, and that the former quarterback would not be expected to be interested in it.
None of these items moves a number in the packet. They are context. A team with an open general manager seat and a deadline-week trade market is a team whose active roster on Nov 1 is less settled than usual. The projection row is dated Oct 25, and the board will keep moving. If a named player is traded before kickoff, the lines in the table above were set against a different Colts roster. That is a reason to re-read the board close to kickoff, not a reason to lean either way today.
What the gap means for a reader
The desk read is a lean toward Jacksonville on the spread, with no claim about the outcome. A gap of 3.1 says the projection and the market disagree. It does not say who is right. Projections miss, and the books that posted -7.5 have already taken a position that is closer to the desk's number than the books at -7 have.
Price matters as much as number. The books at the lower spread charge -120 on the favorite at BetUS and BetOnline.ag, and -116 at LowVig.ag. FanDuel charges -104 for the half point higher. Whether the half point is worth the lower price is a question of how often a game lands exactly on seven. This packet carries no record of that, so it stays unanswered here.
The moneyline tells the same story from another angle. Jacksonville is listed at -390 at FanDuel, -420 at BetRivers and -375 at DraftKings. Indianapolis pays 310, 320 and 295 at the same three books. The desk's moneyline row, with its projected value of 0.810869, also leans home.
Totals are posted too. BetUS and BetOnline.ag list 48.5, FanDuel and DraftKings list 47.5, and BetRivers lists 47. The desk logged no totals projection for this game in the packet, so no gap is reported on the total.
Limits and what to watch
Three limits apply. First, the desk has no graded record to cite, so the gap is reported as a raw distance with no hit rate behind it. Second, the news items are dated Oct 25 and the game is Nov 1, so a week of injuries, trades and line moves sits between this snapshot and kickoff. Third, the two projection rows come from separate markets and should not be added together or treated as independent confirmation.
What to watch: whether the three books at -7 move to -7.5, which would close part of the distance to the projection; any trade involving the Colts' named stars before the deadline; and whether the projection itself updates. If the board moves toward the desk's number, the gap shrinks without the projection being right. If the board stays put and the projection holds, the disagreement is the live story.
FAQ
What is the spread gap on Colts at Jaguars?
The desk's spread row, recorded Oct 25, shows a line of 7, a projected value of 10.1 and a gap of 3.1, favoring Jacksonville.
Do all books have the same spread?
No. BetUS, BetOnline.ag and LowVig.ag list Jacksonville at -7. FanDuel, BetRivers and DraftKings list -7.5, as of Oct 25.
Does the gap predict a Jacksonville cover?
No. The gap measures how far the desk's projection sits from the market. It is a lean to monitor, and the desk has no graded record yet that would put a hit rate on it.
What Colts news matters before kickoff?
National outlets reported Oct 25 that Indianapolis may field trade inquiries on Jonathan Taylor, DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson, and that the team lost its previous game to Minnesota. A roster change before Nov 1 would affect how the posted lines should be read.
What does the moneyline row show?
The desk's moneyline row, logged Oct 25, records a projected value of 0.810869 and an edge of 0.310869, leaning home.
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